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  • Miers’s Confirmation Odds: The Bottom Drops Out

    Posted by Jonathan on October 21st, 2005 (All posts by )

    Intrade’s odds percentages for the Miers confirmation were hanging in the 60s for several days. Last night they dropped to around 50%. A few minutes ago they dropped to around 30%. I assume there is news but haven’t checked yet. Orin Kerr notices the same thing.

    Maybe it wasn’t specific news that changed the odds, but rather a buildup of negative information and sentiment that became substantial enough to affect the nomination severely, perhaps fatally. Either way it now appears unlikely that Miers will be confirmed.

    UPDATE: A few minutes after my initial post, the size market is around 30/40 and there is some trading at 40. Time-and-sales data (a new Intrade feature) show that about 200 contracts, maybe more, traded at 25, so the downdraft could have been based on nothing more than a running of stops or entry of a large sell order in a thin market. If that’s all it was, the price should rebound to the 50 range before very long.