regarding the legal issues. I was sort of surprised that the list didn’t include James Wilson, who was on the first US surpreme court and wrote on the basis for US law… essays linked here:

http://www.founding.com/library/lbody.cfm?parent=61

(I’m also going to include the link to William Blackstone’s, ‘Commentaries on the Laws of England (selections)’ because the page is nearby)

http://www.founding.com/library/lbody.cfm?parent=539

I agree wholeheartedly with you regarding the influence of technology as a unpredictable variable in History. Personally I’m in love with collecting primary sources on-line, so forgive me if I over-link interesting ones).

Notwithstanding my enthusiasm for this sort of thing, I do try to keep from getting too drawn in by it all — most supposed historical parallels turn out to be nonsense, especially those using the Roman Empire, which are unfortunately quite popular. And I’ve read more predictions of apocalypse than I can count — that stuff is enduringly popular with American audiences. Where I think most predictive scenarios fail is by underestimating (or even ignoring) technological advance.

Alexander, thanks for the suggestion.

Before you wade into Albion’s Seed, Hackett Fischers, “Historians’ Fallacies: Toaward a Logic of Historical Thought” (1970) is probably a text worth going over first. Chapter IX, Fallacies of False Analogy deals fairly exhaustively with the tendency to overextend general similarities between eras to the point that some particular “unified theory” looks predictive when considered in hindsight (the Policy Review essay on this problem was a great summary… If youre interested I’ll dig up the link). In some cases fairly simple hypotheses/historic analysis CAN be useful in identifying policy areas that tend to cause types of responces, but it’s a very thin blue line and any use of historical analogy should be qualified to the gills before assumed applicable.

In logical form it looks like this: AX : BX :: AY :BY, where the future, the unknown term, BY, is inferred from three known terms on the assumption that a symmetrical due ratio, or proportion, exists without demonstration. This is especially true of “generational” assumptions that oversimplify complex systems into questionable categories based on demographic statistics of populations born between particular years in a particular Country. If one forgets that “History” is always and ever a Prologue, and that the sheer quantity of legitimate variables that contribute to a particular event make claims of empirical quantitative analysis dubious (too many variables are non-repeatable) if over specific, then its easy to leap to policies that suffer from the “Weathermans” disease… (60% chance of showers, &etc). Anyway (obscure debate subject!).

I would encourage you to plow through GENERATIONS sometime. It is not mystical or Hari Seldon-ish, and to the extent that their model is predictive, the more people know about the risks we are approaching, the better.

Albion’s Seed is a must.

On the issue of global resentment, which you don’t get into too deeply here, see this good short synopsis of Amy Chua’s good book World on Fire. This interview from the Booknotes TV show is also, as usual, good.

Strauss and Howe claim that their model has predictive powers, largely because their cycles are driven by an overall cultural alternation between two extremes of parenting style, which produce four different types of generational outlook which (almost always) follow the same sequence. Based on what appear to be the starting and ending birth years of generations now living, the “Crisis of 2020″ could actually be unambiguously underway by 2012 or so.

While their data selection will always be a bit suspect, some of their predictions (the book was finished in 1990) have been stunningly accurate, like the idea that the first Baby Boomer president would be a historical analog of Warren Harding. The sharp decline in social pathologies in the US during the 1990s also fits their model closely.

I now shamelessly refer anyone reading this back to Arcturus, specifically to what I modestly consider to be the most important post I’ve ever written. (Looks like Blogspot might be down right at the moment, though.)

Anyway, I am only half-serious about any cyclic basis for making predictions about future events. Patterns there may be, but when exactly they will manifest themselves is too hard to predict.