Comments on: The Great Chicago Meteor of 2003 http://chicagoboyz.net/archives/1895.html Some Chicago Boyz know each other from student days at the University of Chicago. Others are Chicago boys in spirit. The blog name is also intended as a good-humored gesture of admiration for distinguished Chicago boys including those pictured above. Tue, 16 Mar 2010 07:39:57 -0400 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.4 hourly 1 By: Jonathan http://chicagoboyz.net/archives/1895.html/comment-page-1#comment-2973 Jonathan Thu, 22 Apr 2004 01:45:04 +0000 http://www390.pair.com/chicagob/blog/001895.php#comment-2973 I think that a decade is still probably too long, given that typical contract durations are no more than a few months. You have to be able to interest people in betting, after all. Maybe there will be enough interest, but I'm skeptical. There are other longshot bets that have (probably) quicker payoffs. Tsunamis, volcano eruptions, and, especially, storms, should be more easily doable. A one-season hurricane contract would be a natural, as would tornado-damage and flood contracts. (Currently they list only a few snow contracts.) I think that a decade is still probably too long, given that typical contract durations are no more than a few months. You have to be able to interest people in betting, after all. Maybe there will be enough interest, but I’m skeptical. There are other longshot bets that have (probably) quicker payoffs.

Tsunamis, volcano eruptions, and, especially, storms, should be more easily doable. A one-season hurricane contract would be a natural, as would tornado-damage and flood contracts. (Currently they list only a few snow contracts.)

]]> By: Jay Manifold http://chicagoboyz.net/archives/1895.html/comment-page-1#comment-2972 Jay Manifold Thu, 22 Apr 2004 00:39:12 +0000 http://www390.pair.com/chicagob/blog/001895.php#comment-2972 Not necessarily. Reasonable predictions on shorter timescales, on the order of a decade, could include: Large explosion (~100 kT) in upper atmosphere (~30 km altitude) in politically sensitive region, <i>eg</i> Indian subcontinent. Small tsunami (onshore wave height of a few meters) caused by oceanic impact, most likely in Pacific. Recovery of large fragment (~10-100 kg) immediately after impact in a populated area. Successful prediction/observation of near-miss close enough to be naked-eye visible from some inhabited portion of the world. Not necessarily. Reasonable predictions on shorter timescales, on the order of a decade, could include:
Large explosion (~100 kT) in upper atmosphere (~30 km altitude) in politically sensitive region, eg Indian subcontinent.
Small tsunami (onshore wave height of a few meters) caused by oceanic impact, most likely in Pacific.
Recovery of large fragment (~10-100 kg) immediately after impact in a populated area.
Successful prediction/observation of near-miss close enough to be naked-eye visible from some inhabited portion of the world.

]]> By: Jonathan http://chicagoboyz.net/archives/1895.html/comment-page-1#comment-2971 Jonathan Wed, 21 Apr 2004 15:14:30 +0000 http://www390.pair.com/chicagob/blog/001895.php#comment-2971 It might be interesting to create prediction contracts for events of this type -- e.g., odds of a fatal impact by a particular date. OTOH such contracts might not work, because the most useful time-horizons might be too long for practical betting purposes. It might be interesting to create prediction contracts for events of this type — e.g., odds of a fatal impact by a particular date. OTOH such contracts might not work, because the most useful time-horizons might be too long for practical betting purposes.

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