Comments on: New Quote Board http://chicagoboyz.net/archives/1897.html Some Chicago Boyz know each other from student days at the University of Chicago. Others are Chicago boys in spirit. The blog name is also intended as a good-humored gesture of admiration for distinguished Chicago boys including those pictured above. Wed, 23 May 2012 04:52:26 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0.4 By: Jonathan http://chicagoboyz.net/archives/1897.html/comment-page-1#comment-2963 Jonathan Fri, 23 Apr 2004 12:09:13 +0000 http://www390.pair.com/chicagob/blog/001897.php#comment-2963 G&G, that is a good question. The contract price 59 reflects the market odds of a Bush victory. If you bought at 59 and held your position until the election, you would make $(41 x tic size x number of contracts - fees) if Bush wins and lose $(59 x tic size x number of contracts + fees) if he loses. (The signs of these results would be reversed if you went short instead of buying.) However, you are not obliged to hold your position until the election; you can liquidate it at any time to take a profit or cut a loss. You can display the specifications for any contract by going to Intrade.com, using the menus to find the contract and clicking on the contract name (e.g., "PRESIDENT.GWBUSH2004"). A popup window showing contract specs and stats will appear. See "Contract Specs" at the bottom of this window. Then click on "Examples", "Margin Specs" and "Explanation" for more info about the contract. Intrade's explanation of how one actually trades is a bit disorganized, but you should be able to get the information you need by going to the Intrade.com home page and clicking around (some of the useful menus are on the bottom of the page). Also, if you go to Tradesports.com (the sports betting site of the company that runs Intrade.com) and click on "Trading Demo", there's a brief movie that gives a feel for how the system works, using a sports example. Note that I have not (yet) traded on this system myself, and that Chicagoboyz does not speak for Intrade.com. I suggest that you contact Intrade directly ("help@intrade.com") if you need more info. They have been quick to respond on the couple of occasions that I contacted them. G&G, that is a good question. The contract price 59 reflects the market odds of a Bush victory. If you bought at 59 and held your position until the election, you would make $(41 x tic size x number of contracts – fees) if Bush wins and lose $(59 x tic size x number of contracts + fees) if he loses. (The signs of these results would be reversed if you went short instead of buying.) However, you are not obliged to hold your position until the election; you can liquidate it at any time to take a profit or cut a loss.

You can display the specifications for any contract by going to Intrade.com, using the menus to find the contract and clicking on the contract name (e.g., “PRESIDENT.GWBUSH2004″). A popup window showing contract specs and stats will appear. See “Contract Specs” at the bottom of this window. Then click on “Examples”, “Margin Specs” and “Explanation” for more info about the contract.

Intrade’s explanation of how one actually trades is a bit disorganized, but you should be able to get the information you need by going to the Intrade.com home page and clicking around (some of the useful menus are on the bottom of the page). Also, if you go to Tradesports.com (the sports betting site of the company that runs Intrade.com) and click on “Trading Demo”, there’s a brief movie that gives a feel for how the system works, using a sports example.

Note that I have not (yet) traded on this system myself, and that Chicagoboyz does not speak for Intrade.com. I suggest that you contact Intrade directly (“help@intrade.com”) if you need more info. They have been quick to respond on the couple of occasions that I contacted them.

]]> By: G & G http://chicagoboyz.net/archives/1897.html/comment-page-1#comment-2962 G & G Fri, 23 Apr 2004 01:12:57 +0000 http://www390.pair.com/chicagob/blog/001897.php#comment-2962 Forgive my naivete, but does this mean if I buy a Bush to be re-elected contract for $59 now, and come November '04 Bush is re-elected, I collect $100? Forgive my naivete, but does this mean if I buy a Bush to be re-elected contract for $59 now, and come November ’04 Bush is re-elected, I collect $100?

]]> By: G & G http://chicagoboyz.net/archives/1897.html/comment-page-1#comment-28478 G & G Fri, 23 Apr 2004 01:12:57 +0000 http://www390.pair.com/chicagob/blog/001897.php#comment-28478 Forgive my naivete, but does this mean if I buy a Bush to be re-elected contract for $59 now, and come November '04 Bush is re-elected, I collect $100? Forgive my naivete, but does this mean if I buy a Bush to be re-elected contract for $59 now, and come November ’04 Bush is re-elected, I collect $100?

]]> By: Jonathan http://chicagoboyz.net/archives/1897.html/comment-page-1#comment-2961 Jonathan Fri, 23 Apr 2004 01:01:37 +0000 http://www390.pair.com/chicagob/blog/001897.php#comment-2961 The odds of a Homeland Security red alert on that date. The odds of a Homeland Security red alert on that date.

]]> By: Bill http://chicagoboyz.net/archives/1897.html/comment-page-1#comment-2960 Bill Fri, 23 Apr 2004 00:52:41 +0000 http://www390.pair.com/chicagob/blog/001897.php#comment-2960 What's the story on a "terror alert Red" on April 30? What’s the story on a “terror alert Red” on April 30?

]]> By: Jonathan http://chicagoboyz.net/archives/1897.html/comment-page-1#comment-2959 Jonathan Thu, 22 Apr 2004 18:11:25 +0000 http://www390.pair.com/chicagob/blog/001897.php#comment-2959 Thanks for the update. I'm glad that you resolved the problem. Perhaps it's possible to configure Norton to let the Intrade info through. Thanks for the update. I’m glad that you resolved the problem.

Perhaps it’s possible to configure Norton to let the Intrade info through.

]]> By: Ian http://chicagoboyz.net/archives/1897.html/comment-page-1#comment-2958 Ian Thu, 22 Apr 2004 18:10:16 +0000 http://www390.pair.com/chicagob/blog/001897.php#comment-2958 That is, the board is a cool feature. The firewall from NIS is too, but...anyway. That is, the board is a cool feature. The firewall from NIS is too, but…anyway.

]]> By: Ian http://chicagoboyz.net/archives/1897.html/comment-page-1#comment-2957 Ian Thu, 22 Apr 2004 18:04:54 +0000 http://www390.pair.com/chicagob/blog/001897.php#comment-2957 Bingo. I have Norton Internet Security running on my machine. Turning it off lets me see the quote board. My taste for risk with internet viruses is low, but I'll be sure to check it out from time to time. Very cool feature, though. Bingo.

I have Norton Internet Security running on my machine. Turning it off lets me see the quote board.

My taste for risk with internet viruses is low, but I’ll be sure to check it out from time to time.

Very cool feature, though.

]]> By: Jonathan http://chicagoboyz.net/archives/1897.html/comment-page-1#comment-2956 Jonathan Thu, 22 Apr 2004 17:28:31 +0000 http://www390.pair.com/chicagob/blog/001897.php#comment-2956 Ian, thanks for the feedback. I have no problem seeing the contract names or quotes in IE 6 or Mozilla Firefox. NS 4.7 doesn't work. I haven't tried a modern NS or any other browser. I assume that you tried the obvious stuff like clearing caches and checking security settings. Are you behind a firewall? If so, I wonder if it blocks the intrade.com server. But I'm just guessing, I don't know. If you're up for it, you might contract Intrade at "help@intrade.com" or by telephoning 866-303-1929 (before 4PM CST). If you do that, I'd be grateful if you could let us know what you learn. Ian, thanks for the feedback. I have no problem seeing the contract names or quotes in IE 6 or Mozilla Firefox. NS 4.7 doesn’t work. I haven’t tried a modern NS or any other browser.

I assume that you tried the obvious stuff like clearing caches and checking security settings.

Are you behind a firewall? If so, I wonder if it blocks the intrade.com server. But I’m just guessing, I don’t know.

If you’re up for it, you might contract Intrade at “help@intrade.com” or by telephoning 866-303-1929 (before 4PM CST). If you do that, I’d be grateful if you could let us know what you learn.

]]> By: Ian http://chicagoboyz.net/archives/1897.html/comment-page-1#comment-2955 Ian Thu, 22 Apr 2004 15:11:18 +0000 http://www390.pair.com/chicagob/blog/001897.php#comment-2955 Ok, so, it sounds like a really good idea. But I'm getting blank cells under "Contract" in IE, Avant, and Netscape. The cell color appears as a light blue/grey/teal. Maybe there's a setting on my computer that's getting rid of the Contract name font color...but I thought I should mention it in case it affects more than just me. Ok, so, it sounds like a really good idea.

But I’m getting blank cells under “Contract” in IE, Avant, and Netscape.

The cell color appears as a light blue/grey/teal. Maybe there’s a setting on my computer that’s getting rid of the Contract name font color…but I thought I should mention it in case it affects more than just me.

]]> By: Jonathan http://chicagoboyz.net/archives/1897.html/comment-page-1#comment-2954 Jonathan Thu, 22 Apr 2004 01:52:11 +0000 http://www390.pair.com/chicagob/blog/001897.php#comment-2954 Yes, terrestrial events could be a fruitful category, as I noted in my response to your comments at your meteor post. BTW, I'm not sure that Chicago is immune to earthquakes. Certainly it is vulnerable to political disasters. Yes, terrestrial events could be a fruitful category, as I noted in my response to your comments at your meteor post.

BTW, I’m not sure that Chicago is immune to earthquakes. Certainly it is vulnerable to political disasters.

]]> By: Jay Manifold http://chicagoboyz.net/archives/1897.html/comment-page-1#comment-2953 Jay Manifold Thu, 22 Apr 2004 00:46:07 +0000 http://www390.pair.com/chicagob/blog/001897.php#comment-2953 See my comment on <a href="http://www.chicagoboyz.net/archives/001895.html" rel="nofollow">The Great Chicago Meteor of 2003</a> for some natural-disaster, or semi-natural semi-disaster, events. There are plenty of more purely terrestrial possibilities involving earthquakes, hurricanes, <i>etc</i> affecting named major cities. (I note that Chicago itself appears relatively immune to earthquakes and hurricanes, heh.) See my comment on The Great Chicago Meteor of 2003 for some natural-disaster, or semi-natural semi-disaster, events. There are plenty of more purely terrestrial possibilities involving earthquakes, hurricanes, etc affecting named major cities. (I note that Chicago itself appears relatively immune to earthquakes and hurricanes, heh.)

]]> By: Jonathan http://chicagoboyz.net/archives/1897.html/comment-page-1#comment-2952 Jonathan Wed, 21 Apr 2004 21:50:34 +0000 http://www390.pair.com/chicagob/blog/001897.php#comment-2952 Following up the question about Arafat: "These contracts will expire at 100 if for any reason, under any circumstances Yasser Arafat no longer resides/domiciled in Israel & the Palestinian Territories by(i.e. on or before) 11:59pm EST on the specific date." Following up the question about Arafat:

“These contracts will expire at 100 if for any reason, under any
circumstances Yasser Arafat no longer resides/domiciled in Israel & the
Palestinian Territories by(i.e. on or before) 11:59pm EST on the specific
date.”

]]> By: Jonathan http://chicagoboyz.net/archives/1897.html/comment-page-1#comment-2951 Jonathan Wed, 21 Apr 2004 18:22:26 +0000 http://www390.pair.com/chicagob/blog/001897.php#comment-2951 Cap'n, that's a good question. I assume that the set of all departure possibilities includes the possibility of Arafat's death, but my assumption does not seem to be reflected in the fine print on the Intrade site. I'll inquire. Cap’n, that’s a good question. I assume that the set of all departure possibilities includes the possibility of Arafat’s death, but my assumption does not seem to be reflected in the fine print on the Intrade site. I’ll inquire.

]]> By: Jonathan http://chicagoboyz.net/archives/1897.html/comment-page-1#comment-2950 Jonathan Wed, 21 Apr 2004 18:16:55 +0000 http://www390.pair.com/chicagob/blog/001897.php#comment-2950 In-Cog, I am merely trying to follow the market here. DARPA has generated some good ideas. Unhappily, the risk-futures market, a good idea, got slammed politically, while the data-mining scheme, a flawed idea, seems to make steady progress despite public opposition. In-Cog, I am merely trying to follow the market here.

DARPA has generated some good ideas. Unhappily, the risk-futures market, a good idea, got slammed politically, while the data-mining scheme, a flawed idea, seems to make steady progress despite public opposition.

]]> By: Captain Mojo http://chicagoboyz.net/archives/1897.html/comment-page-1#comment-2949 Captain Mojo Wed, 21 Apr 2004 18:15:50 +0000 http://www390.pair.com/chicagob/blog/001897.php#comment-2949 Does the "Arafat departs/vacates Israel and the Palestinian territories by Jun 30" contract include his vile immortal sole departing, or are we limited to his body moving while he's, ya know, still alive? Does the “Arafat departs/vacates Israel and the Palestinian territories by Jun 30″ contract include his vile immortal sole departing, or are we limited to his body moving while he’s, ya know, still alive?

]]> By: In-Cog-Nito http://chicagoboyz.net/archives/1897.html/comment-page-1#comment-2948 In-Cog-Nito Wed, 21 Apr 2004 18:08:40 +0000 http://www390.pair.com/chicagob/blog/001897.php#comment-2948 Admiral Poindexter was ahead of his time. (well... at least ahead of politicians anyways) Admiral Poindexter was ahead of his time. (well… at least ahead of politicians anyways)

]]> By: In-Cog-Nito http://chicagoboyz.net/archives/1897.html/comment-page-1#comment-2947 In-Cog-Nito Wed, 21 Apr 2004 18:06:33 +0000 http://www390.pair.com/chicagob/blog/001897.php#comment-2947 You the man Jonathan. You the man Jonathan.

]]> By: Sylvain Galineau http://chicagoboyz.net/archives/1897.html/comment-page-1#comment-2946 Sylvain Galineau Wed, 21 Apr 2004 11:09:40 +0000 http://www390.pair.com/chicagob/blog/001897.php#comment-2946 Cool ! Cool !

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