There’s been some discussion here about China’s continuing hostility, mainly because they want to gain control of Taiwan while Western states are reluctant to abandon a fellow democracy, however flawed, to a Communist regime. If you’re interested, you can check out the previous discussions here, here, here and here.
My position is that the Chinese military isn’t in any shape to take on the US Navy, and it won’t be for at least another twenty years. Even one carrier group in the area would devastate an invasion force moving towards Taiwan, and the Chinese really don’t have anything that has a good chance of countering that. Instead I saw all of this bluster and aggression as a way to gauge the reaction that the West would have to military action. If we indicate that we’re not interested in fighting for Taiwan then the landing craft would launch, otherwise not.
Some of the readers who left comments have a different take on things. They pointed out that the chances of an actual shooting war are becoming ever more remote since Chinese GDP relies on business with Western firms. Even if they had a fair chance of taking the island by force, they’d have to deal with the problems brought by an economy shattered by sanctions and embargoes.
Good going, guys! You scooped the professionals.