It is a very individual stance – true.

The risk of economic collapse is uncertain, true. But I’ll argue very real.

The timing is very very uncertain. It only took two months for the cascade to start in Greece, and unlike Greece, we have no Big brother like Germany to bailout the US.

Is that comforting? No. That makes the debt-spiral overhang coming in four years (145% debt to GDP, with federal combined with state and local) even more worrisome.

The list of tasks in “going Galt” are outlined here:
http://www.fortliberty.org/going-galt.html

What’s worse and immediate right now is that the public dialog is increasing delusional, psychotic, and detached from reality.
(Google “drsanity” for a retired med school psychiatrist’s decade long coverage of this out of control threat to civic dialog.) We obssess about the trivial (gun crime and gun control, even the “fiscal cliff,” I’d argue) and ignore the eight-hundred pound gorilla in the living room, moving to the kitchen, threatening all of our livelihoods because it’s where we eat.

What’s worse for the long-term is that for those under 30 years old, those WHO DON’T believe in the fact of American Exceptionalism* is fast about majority of the young. How does anyone who accepts and understands the values advocated here, at chicagoboyz, stanch this tidal wave of rejecting Americanism?

Long-term, even medium term, this trend is impossible to reverse.

And without Americanism, does patriotic or libertarian America reality have any long-term governing future here? Only in shrinking pockets like the South, Texas and Oklahoma, the Mormon culture zone (ie, surrounding Utah), perhaps. And smaller or less populated locales (eg, Alaska). But not nationally.

So, yeah. Call me a pessimist.

*(Belief in American Exceptionalism has collapsed during the last decade among the young. 49% do not believe it, if memory serves, the last time I saw the Gallup survey on this question.)

In other words, all Americans have to do is vote for more conservatively minded (i.e. even Republican, I dare say!) politicians who even offer a shred of lip service (at least!) that they will do just that on every single one of those issues. All Americans have to do is at least start to think and vote that way.

And they had their chance, and they took a pass. They like the free stuff, that all comes from the Obama stash, I suppose, and they want a President who looks really kewl in that bomber jacket. And so every single idea you have to forestall the catastrophe went over the side. It seems that all the “wrong people” were for it, and I know, ‘cuz John Stewart told me so.

Don’t get me wrong, DF, you are 100% correct. It’s just not very helpful, I’m afraid.

What does “going Galt” mean?

Does it mean you’re paying down personal debt? closing or downsizing your business? reducing your taxable income? moving to a remote cabin? leaving the country? some combination of the above?

Depending on how you do it, going Galt may have large personal costs. Yet the risks that going Galt is intended to reduce are highly uncertain. For example, while the near-term economic outlook seems bad, Intrade puts the risk of recession in 2013 at only 20%. What does that mean? Who knows. And different people have different personal situations and preferences that make it impossible to generalize. Heading for the hills might not make sense for someone who is running a large business or is taking care of young children or elderly parents.

As always, different courses of action (or inaction) make sense for different individuals. Everyone has to figure out for himself what to do. Boilerplate advice is worthless.

With the FC, there will be a recession in 2013. It won’t last long. (But then the ‘recovery’ never really went beyond Wall Street, save for some fortunate states, mostly from Texas to Notrh Dakota – certain of the so-called “Blue” states.)

Depression won’t come until the capital market’s decide that the US won’t be paying them back and demand unaffordable interest rates for any further borrowing. Then we become Greece writ huge.

This won’t happen for another 3 to 5 years, but if Greece’s experience applies here, then it will happen quite suddenly – over a month or two.

Then the US ‘Democrat’ evil scheme to borrow forever results in depression, 40% unemployment, no economic growth for years, and 50% wealth destruction. The end of the US as we’ve known it.

And because this ultimate end is inevitable, I’m going Galt. Why aren’t you?

Ginny: A song for you:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WLzFhOslZPM

“Government Cheese” by the Rainmakers

Give a man a free house and he’ll bust out the windows
Put his family on food stamps, now he’s a big spender
no food on the table and the bills ain’t paid
‘Cause he spent it on cigarettes and P.G.A.
They’ll turn us all into beggars ’cause they’re easier to please
They’re feeding our people that Government Cheese

Give a man a free lunch and he’ll figure out a way
To steal more than he can eat ’cause he doesn’t have to pay
Give a woman free kids and you’ll find them in the dirt
Learning how to carry on the family line of work
It’s the man in the White House, the man under the steeple
Passing out drugs to the American people
I don’t believe in anything, nothing is free
They’re feeding our people the Government Cheese

Decline and fall, fall down baby
Decline and fall, said fall way down now
Decline and fall, fall down little mama
Decline and fall, decline and fall

Give a man a free ticket on a dead end ride
And he’ll climb in the back even though nobody’s driving
Too ******* lazy to crawl out of the wreck
And he’ll rot there while he waits for the welfare check
Going to hell in a handbag, can’t you see
I ain’t gonna eat no Government Cheese

Yes, I guess it depends on whether I am signed in.

On the “competent” pols – the other day I was comparing Pelosi to Boehner and have to say when the Dems are in power they know how to act (never mind that when in power (at least Congress) the people, upon seeing them acting, rebel)

How could Boehner be so stupid as to agree to “secret” negotiations – the way Obamacare was created.

You are amazed? That politicians crave power?
=================================

Going over the Cliff – a hysterical media label – doesn’t hurt pols. At least not the competent ones anyway [Dems]. When more people go on welfare this helps the statist faction.

It’s called the Curley Effect and I’m sure it’s a familiar term here.

And I put the blame right at Congress – Republicans and Democrats – for enacting entitlement programs with no controls to reign in the spending. And for a generation or 2, these politicians would pat themselves on the back for helping “the people”.

It’s all soon coming to a head and so far – nobody has stepped up to really address it.

Except perhaps Paul Ryan – and look where it got him.

I ask you to expand on your claim of an impending depression, to present an actual argument with reasons on a matter of enormous consequence, if true, and all you can do is run away muttering about trolls?

Is the only acceptable behavior for one in your presence to simply nod agreement whenever you make a claim, no matter how provocative or non-obvious?

Just by coincidence I ran across this column today which seems perfectly relevant to you, especially since it deals with the very issues that you raise. I am sure you will find it interesting even though it comes from outside your usual comfort zone:
When Prophecy Fails

They enjoy the attention and contribute nothing to the discussion. Sorry for the slip.

Just a little friendly advice. If you want to brag to people outside of the bubble about your skills at political prognostication, then noting that you predicted a McCain victory (with 40 states!) and claiming that you would have been correct were it not for the financial meltdown – that isn’t an argument that will get you very far.

“The US media has become an arm of the Democratic party.”

Really? Does that include FoxNews? The Wall Street Journal? The Washington Times, the New York Post, the Detroit News, the Boston Herald etc. etc. Does it include Rush Limbaugh and the many others on talk radio? Does it include the considerable right-wing blog presence? Why do you rightwingers always play this victim game – pretending that only the liberal media is “the media” and therefore “the media” is all against the poor conservatives? In terms of impact and eyeballs and ears, y’all have as much presence in the media, writ large, as the center-left does, and far more than the unabashed left.

And of course, with the epidemic of self-imposed behavioral isolation, wherein it becomes a mark of pride amongst conservatives to not even listen to what non-conservatives say, I think it fair to say that the “media” that the average conservative is exposed to is overwhelmingly rightwing.

So no, you don’t need to read British twits in order to find a rightwing ideological slant on the news.

Anyway, maybe you could flesh out a bit exactly why you think a depression is inevitable if some sort of a cliff-avoiding deal is made, either before 1/1 or shortly thereafter.

” The total debt will continue to increase by another $7or 8 B ….”

This should read

“The total debt will continue to increase by another $700 or $800 B ….”

Who can I blame for this insidiuous misrepresentation of my thoughts! I’m outraged.

I imagine you’re right Mike. A resulting 5 or 10% market loss and healthy economic psychology in play. It would wake up a lot of taxpayers that are unconcerned.

Will you commit to coming back here with fulsome apologies and a searching analysis of your own twisted ideological logic when you turn out to be wrong about this?