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	<title>Comments on: Military Intelligence and the Scientific Method</title>
	<atom:link href="http://chicagoboyz.net/archives/3419.html/feed" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://chicagoboyz.net/archives/3419.html</link>
	<description>Some Chicago Boyz know each other from student days at the University of Chicago. Others are Chicago boys in spirit. The blog name is also intended as a good-humored gesture of admiration for distinguished Chicago boys including those pictured above.</description>
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		<title>By: Mitch</title>
		<link>http://chicagoboyz.net/archives/3419.html/comment-page-1#comment-14568</link>
		<dc:creator>Mitch</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 23 Aug 2005 13:54:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www390.pair.com/chicagob/blog/003419.php#comment-14568</guid>
		<description>Karl Popper would have said the effort wasn&#039;t finished without others trying and failing to disprove the results.  Chalabi is on record that he talked up Saddam&#039;s capabilities to attract US attention.  Someone should have stress-tested this guy&#039;s info.
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Karl Popper would have said the effort wasn&#8217;t finished without others trying and failing to disprove the results.  Chalabi is on record that he talked up Saddam&#8217;s capabilities to attract US attention.  Someone should have stress-tested this guy&#8217;s info.</p>
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		<title>By: ATM</title>
		<link>http://chicagoboyz.net/archives/3419.html/comment-page-1#comment-14567</link>
		<dc:creator>ATM</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 22 Aug 2005 22:30:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www390.pair.com/chicagob/blog/003419.php#comment-14567</guid>
		<description>It isn&#039;t completely true that academics aren&#039;t without time pressure.  Scientists have to publish results before others do to get credit for discovery.  And tenure track professors often have to publish enough before a certain point in time to get tenure.  But these aren&#039;t the life and death decisions that politicians, military personnnel, police officers, and physicians have to deal with in real time.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It isn&#8217;t completely true that academics aren&#8217;t without time pressure.  Scientists have to publish results before others do to get credit for discovery.  And tenure track professors often have to publish enough before a certain point in time to get tenure.  But these aren&#8217;t the life and death decisions that politicians, military personnnel, police officers, and physicians have to deal with in real time.</p>
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		<title>By: Shannon Love</title>
		<link>http://chicagoboyz.net/archives/3419.html/comment-page-1#comment-14566</link>
		<dc:creator>Shannon Love</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 22 Aug 2005 15:40:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www390.pair.com/chicagob/blog/003419.php#comment-14566</guid>
		<description>The major advantage that the sciences have over other fields is one of time. Scientist are not forced by events to make decisions based on incomplete information whereas people in military, business or even clinical medicine almost always have to. 

Much of the aura of infallibility with which we surround science comes from ability of scientist to refine ideas and measurements over long periods of time. If you look at the history of science at any particular juncture in time, you will find many ideas that turn out to be wrong or so incomplete that they might as well be. It is only because we tend to forget the legions of failed hypothesis that exist for every successful one that we believe science to be so superior to other areas of endeavor.

I have often thought that one of the major difference in mindsets between academics and other professions like business and the military is that academics are under no real world time pressures. Academics get into the mode of thinking that people should always be able to take as long as they want to make a decision just as an academic can take as long as the need to find the correct answer. You certainly get that impression from reading academic analysis of military, political or business decisions.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The major advantage that the sciences have over other fields is one of time. Scientist are not forced by events to make decisions based on incomplete information whereas people in military, business or even clinical medicine almost always have to. </p>
<p>Much of the aura of infallibility with which we surround science comes from ability of scientist to refine ideas and measurements over long periods of time. If you look at the history of science at any particular juncture in time, you will find many ideas that turn out to be wrong or so incomplete that they might as well be. It is only because we tend to forget the legions of failed hypothesis that exist for every successful one that we believe science to be so superior to other areas of endeavor.</p>
<p>I have often thought that one of the major difference in mindsets between academics and other professions like business and the military is that academics are under no real world time pressures. Academics get into the mode of thinking that people should always be able to take as long as they want to make a decision just as an academic can take as long as the need to find the correct answer. You certainly get that impression from reading academic analysis of military, political or business decisions.</p>
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		<title>By: ed in texas</title>
		<link>http://chicagoboyz.net/archives/3419.html/comment-page-1#comment-14565</link>
		<dc:creator>ed in texas</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 22 Aug 2005 10:49:15 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>The point of all of this is the old truism:
&quot;Experience is something you don&#039;t get until just after you need it.&quot;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The point of all of this is the old truism:<br />
&#8220;Experience is something you don&#8217;t get until just after you need it.&#8221;</p>
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		<title>By: Steven Den Beste</title>
		<link>http://chicagoboyz.net/archives/3419.html/comment-page-1#comment-14564</link>
		<dc:creator>Steven Den Beste</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 22 Aug 2005 03:13:02 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>There&#039;s one fundamental difference: there isn&#039;t a hostile intelligence attempting to deliberately deceive or mislead scientists, or to try to obfuscate the message. Science is based on the principle that nature is fundamentally honest.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>There&#8217;s one fundamental difference: there isn&#8217;t a hostile intelligence attempting to deliberately deceive or mislead scientists, or to try to obfuscate the message. Science is based on the principle that nature is fundamentally honest.</p>
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	<item>
		<title>By: Lex</title>
		<link>http://chicagoboyz.net/archives/3419.html/comment-page-1#comment-14563</link>
		<dc:creator>Lex</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 22 Aug 2005 01:09:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www390.pair.com/chicagob/blog/003419.php#comment-14563</guid>
		<description>Jay, you are always welcome here.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Jay, you are always welcome here.</p>
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