By Chinese Communists….

Perhaps this is off subject, but will the excess of men in the coming generation make a difference? Do we have any precedent for that?

Meanwhile, Lex’s post focuses on the rise of China. Lex is usually quite skeptical of China, but like Mr. Lee, he gives a good defense of position, in a context that explains why he sees things the way he does. Definitely worth a read.

Mahbubani had made great observation. China is indeed moving to the right direction, and the leadership today think and act rationally.

LKY has expressed his concern on China’s younger generation, esp those who are borned after 1980s. He has made similar comments a couple years ago. His logic is (roughly):
1. the current leadership have suffered through cultural revolution and dark days of China. They know how difficult it is to modernize China. They also learned painfully that Mao’s way does not help their aspiration, nor will any aggressive behavior that alienates the world. They are therefore, content with improving the basic well-being of their country; and realizing how difficult such a task is, they are willing to do anything they can to focus on this task. Making enemy does not help such focus.
2. However, some of the younger generation, LKY observed, who do not carry the memory of China’s dark ages, may not understand this. They might become unreasonably proud and hence become aggressive. LKY should have noted that opening up of China also means more exposure to democratic and liberitarian values from the west. He was not ignoring that. He just wanted to make sure China (and the world) work hard to prevent that happening. It is not very likely, but it is worhtwhile be preventative. Therefore, he has been advocating for China to focus on educating its younger generation, teach them to be “humble” and to understand that the best way to achieve the old glory is to play by the rule of the game with the rest of the world, with logic.

Lee’s concern is probably exaggerated, as we know the extremist are often louder and more heard(e.g. in Chinese internet BBS) than they really are. But we should be cautious and try to steer China’s younger generation to the right path.
Unfortunately, some of the exposure to western values are negated by disappointment over “china containment” and what they see as “double standardness” in the US policies (to China and to, e.g. Iraq). (I would use the analogy that the bitterness among German helped porpel Hitler to power in 1930s to illustrate this point, although I admit this is not a good analogy) What we need to do is to let them understand that despite the fault of the west, the core values are still highly honored, by its people, and by the government through its democratic system. The best way to do so, is to let more of them travel and study in the west, and let them meet the average american and european people who could share with them what they believe the western values are. This would help to weaken the school of the hawks.

Friends who do business in China tell me that China has made incredible strides in the last ten years in making itself more efficient and orderly, confirming Mahbubani’s main point. All to the good.

IMHO Pillsbury has a number of flaws in his logic

Kishore Mahbubani’s essay can be accessed here

Read this Lee Kuan Yew interview and the thoughts of Lexington Green. I do not think that China’s ascendancy will

Your latest comment is a very sensible view of the situation. It is, at the same time, scary because of the ghosts it invokes…the shades of the It Can’t Happen essays written in Europe in the decade prior to August 1914.

You, TML, and the rest of us readers know that, of course. We hope that knowledge of this history improves the judgement of all concerned, from Foggy Bottom to Tienamen Square.

Grim interprets the elegant and eloquent essay as a “velveted fist” offer from “the Chinese court” to the US: Peace and cooperation, in exchange for a free hand with Taiwan.

This could fit into a Kaiserian scenario, or a Barnett-like one. Interesting either way.

1. Eviscerate ideological communism
check – as of Deng
2. maintain political control while unwinding economic distortion, all without any ideological justification for the regime
check – in progress
3. open up political and ideological discussion to create a new ideological foundation for the PRC
This is the future safe landing where the current leadership gets a sustainable footing without ending up hanging from lamp posts.

The problem is that the PRC is in a Wile E Coyote moment and has been since Deng. Will they survive suspended in mid-air for the length of time necessary to accomplish stages 2 and 3? Stage two is already a semi-failure as chinese (Han?) nationalism has had to be deployed to maintain the regime during this stage. Can that nationalism be defanged and a substitute justification for this regime be grafted on?

I think that only a big bang can really save the PRC from the consequences of its actions now. If the current PRC leadership were to legalize the main Taiwan parties in a grand deal that reunified Taiwan with the mainland peacefully and without recriminations or punishment for any past acts on any side, that might do it. Frankly, I can’t think of another alternative that wouldn’t cause major trouble for the US as well as being extremely risky for the PRC.

Unlike the USSR, China presents no ideological threat, it is post-communist in all but name and has shed its communist myths of revolution and warmaking, nor is its economy warped into focusing over-heavily on making weapons as the Soviet Union was.

The more time passes, the more this is true.

This is precisely the Kaiserian Germany scenario which I discussed here. In his classic assessment of Germany’s bid for world power, Ludwig Dehio argued that hegemonic challengers always launch their bid too early, they seem to be possessed by a “demonic power” when they feel that they are ready to take their rightful place in the world and are being denied the respect they are due and the voice in world affairs they are entitled to.

I’m obviously biased, but I’m convinced that the world would be a much better place if Germany had won WW I.

From an interview with Lee Kwan Yew in Der Spiegel, Lexington Green at Chicago Boyz has spun a fine commentary on China’s growth and the dilemma of security vs. conflict. Students of geopolitics, don’t miss this.LKY is saying that China can peacefully…