Comments on: The proposed ‘Flat Tax’ dominates the German election debates http://chicagoboyz.net/archives/3475.html Some Chicago Boyz know each other from student days at the University of Chicago. Others are Chicago boys in spirit. The blog name is also intended as a good-humored gesture of admiration for distinguished Chicago boys including those pictured above. Sun, 21 Mar 2010 20:57:05 -0400 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.4 hourly 1 By: Mitch http://chicagoboyz.net/archives/3475.html/comment-page-1#comment-15232 Mitch Wed, 14 Sep 2005 13:46:54 +0000 http://www390.pair.com/chicagob/blog/003475.php#comment-15232 We're sort of backing into a flat tax in the US with the "Alternative Minimum." I wound up paying a non-trivial sum under that scheme for 2004. If they could pare back the rate to 20% from the current 26% or 28%, and restore some kind of personal exemption (effectively giving a break to low-earning taxpayers), I'd go for that. We’re sort of backing into a flat tax in the US with the “Alternative Minimum.” I wound up paying a non-trivial sum under that scheme for 2004. If they could pare back the rate to 20% from the current 26% or 28%, and restore some kind of personal exemption (effectively giving a break to low-earning taxpayers), I’d go for that.

]]> By: Ralf Goergens http://chicagoboyz.net/archives/3475.html/comment-page-1#comment-15231 Ralf Goergens Wed, 14 Sep 2005 11:33:32 +0000 http://www390.pair.com/chicagob/blog/003475.php#comment-15231 Schröder is as good as gone, and the flat tax will ahve to get thoroufgh sooner or later. I really am looking forward to that one, although it might take a while in case of the flat tax

]]> By: Steve http://chicagoboyz.net/archives/3475.html/comment-page-1#comment-15230 Steve Wed, 14 Sep 2005 02:01:00 +0000 http://www390.pair.com/chicagob/blog/003475.php#comment-15230 Ralf, thanks for bearing such great news! Two dreams may be about to come true. If Schroeder's out then our two countries can get relations back on a more productive track. And If Germany enacts a flat tax, America will be forced to follow suit in under a decade. Can France be far behind? -Steve Ralf, thanks for bearing such great news! Two dreams may be about to come true.

If Schroeder’s out then our two countries can get relations back on a more productive track. And If Germany enacts a flat tax, America will be forced to follow suit in under a decade.

Can France be far behind?
-Steve

]]> By: Adrian http://chicagoboyz.net/archives/3475.html/comment-page-1#comment-15229 Adrian Tue, 13 Sep 2005 22:17:51 +0000 http://www390.pair.com/chicagob/blog/003475.php#comment-15229 Intrade may be a good predictor but there are two separate questions here: 1) Will CDU/CSU win more seats than SPD? 2) Will CDU/CSU+FDP win more seats than SPD+Greens+Linke? Intrade bets are on the first question and there is very little doubt that CDU/CSU will be ahead of SPD. No poll has shown SPD less than 6 points behind. But the real question is the second one and on that front CDU/CSU+FDP are not doing so well. Since Greens and Linke each poll about the same percentage as FDP, CDU/CSU could be ahead of SPD by 7 or 8 points and CDU/CSU+FDP could still be short of majority. Intrade may be a good predictor but there are two separate questions here:
1) Will CDU/CSU win more seats than SPD?
2) Will CDU/CSU+FDP win more seats than SPD+Greens+Linke?

Intrade bets are on the first question and there is very little doubt that CDU/CSU will be ahead of SPD. No poll has shown SPD less than 6 points behind.

But the real question is the second one and on that front CDU/CSU+FDP are not doing so well. Since Greens and Linke each poll about the same percentage as FDP, CDU/CSU could be ahead of SPD by 7 or 8 points and CDU/CSU+FDP could still be short of majority.

]]> By: Lex http://chicagoboyz.net/archives/3475.html/comment-page-1#comment-15228 Lex Tue, 13 Sep 2005 21:47:54 +0000 http://www390.pair.com/chicagob/blog/003475.php#comment-15228 Stevely, the relevant population in this case would be "people willing to place a bet on the German election".People who put money on the table make better predictions than people answering a poll. I think I can safely assert that categorically. Stevely, the relevant population in this case would be “people willing to place a bet on the German election”.People who put money on the table make better predictions than people answering a poll. I think I can safely assert that categorically.

]]> By: Stevely http://chicagoboyz.net/archives/3475.html/comment-page-1#comment-15227 Stevely Tue, 13 Sep 2005 21:12:04 +0000 http://www390.pair.com/chicagob/blog/003475.php#comment-15227 I don't think so, for a German election. Who are most of the people who make the trades on Intrade? I would think people from English speaking countries with little familiarity with German politics. I don’t think so, for a German election. Who are most of the people who make the trades on Intrade? I would think people from English speaking countries with little familiarity with German politics.

]]> By: Ralf Goergens http://chicagoboyz.net/archives/3475.html/comment-page-1#comment-15226 Ralf Goergens Tue, 13 Sep 2005 19:54:13 +0000 http://www390.pair.com/chicagob/blog/003475.php#comment-15226 I hope so.

Intrade says nothing about the Free Democrats (FDP). If they don’t perform well enough, there will be aGrand Coalition. It looks as if the Social Democrats will be the junior partners, so that Schröder will at least be gone.

]]> By: Lex http://chicagoboyz.net/archives/3475.html/comment-page-1#comment-15225 Lex Tue, 13 Sep 2005 19:23:53 +0000 http://www390.pair.com/chicagob/blog/003475.php#comment-15225 Ralf, Intrade has "CDU/CSU to Win most seats in the Bundestag in the next election" at 89/90 bid/ask. Probably a better predictor than the polls. Ralf, Intrade has “CDU/CSU to Win most seats in the Bundestag in the next election” at 89/90 bid/ask. Probably a better predictor than the polls.

]]>