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  • The Obamacare’s 0.7% New Policy Payment Problem

    Posted by Trent Telenko on December 11th, 2013 (All posts by )

    Allahpundit over on the HotAir blog has a post up titled “Uh oh: Only 5-15% of enrollees have paid their first month of premiums in some ObamaCare plans” that has some hugely interesting numbers regards the payment rate for those who have signed up for Obamacare to date.

    There are 365,000 enrollees in Obamacare thus far. Only 15% of them have paid for their 1st month of healthcare insurance. This means _AT BEST_ less than 55,000 of the 365,000 who have enrolled will have insurance come January 2014.

    The individual healthcare market prior to Obamacare was over 7 million people holding policies.

    That works out to 0.7% of the individual policy holders that had old pre-Obamacare private health insurance policies, who have renewed their policies under Obamacare, given a 15% payment compliance rate. Remember, that is the _BEST CASE_ It may be as little as 1/3 that compliance number and percentage.

    There are less than 30 days for the other 99.3% of the individual healthcare market to get an Obamacare policy.

    I wonder what odds Las Vegas bookies would give for an Obamacare paid policy rate 10% of the old individual healthcare market, AKA Obamacare policies for 700,000?

     

    16 Responses to “The Obamacare’s 0.7% New Policy Payment Problem”

    1. beachrat Says:

      Don’t forget — those aren’t actual enrolled numbers (people who think they’re enrolled). They’re numbers representing people who put a plan in a shopping cart. (Now, some of them may think that’s all they needed to do to “enroll”, but that’s a different problem.) At any rate, it will be 15% of some number *lower* than 365k who will actually have insurance come January.

    2. MarkJ Says:

      And I’ll bet a large percentage of those 365k enrollees are still wondering why their free ObamaPhones and government ponies haven’t arrived yet in the mail…..

    3. grey eagle Says:

      In ancient Rome it was customary to line the major highways with crucified law breakers in order to call attention to a law that was being ignored. Perhaps Obama should use this technique to encourage 18-25 year olds to sign up for Obamacare.

    4. ErisGuy Says:

      Look like the laboratory of the states, e.g., Massachusetts and Oregon which have state health care, weren’t such good incubators of democracy after all. Why have the smaller scale (anything on the scale of Massachusetts isn’t ‘small scale’) programs works while the federal system fails?

    5. ErisGuy Says:

      Why should subjects sign up to pay for Obamacare, when everyone knows the care will soon be free, like food, shelter, phones….

    6. Trent Telenko Says:

      Grey Eagle,

      There are not enough 18-25 year olds to “crucify.”

      The “Young, Invincible and _Economically Stupid_” young adults demographic is neither large enough nor economically rich enough to fund the Obamacare transfer payment program.

      See:

      http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Articles/2013/06/27/Why-Millennials-Are-Obamacares-Last-Hope

      If you exclude Millennials with children—who would likely face stiff medical bills—and those who can stay on their parents’ coverage, the number of “eligible” young adults for the exchanges drops to 4 million, according to research by McIntyre and Josh Fangmeier, a consultant for the Center for Healthcare Research & Transformation in Ann Arbor, MI.

      A target group as low as 4 million means the Obama administration must convince 67.5 percent of them to buy insurance from an exchange.

      According to a poll released last week by the Kaiser Family Foundation, more than 71 percent of young adults said it was “very important to them personally” to have health insurance.

      That’s an encouraging sign, said Jen Mishory, deputy director of the group Young Invincibles, who added that “basic literacy” about how insurance works with deductibles and co-pays is low.

      “There is a significant number of people for whom this will be the first access to coverage,” said Mishory, whose organization is training people to talk about Obamacare options for young adults.

      But even if Millennials understand the benefits of having health coverage, price will be a major factor in determining whether they enroll and early estimates are giving a sense of the likely costs and the possible rate shock.

      Actuaries at the consulting firm Oliver Wyman projected earlier this year that a young adult earning $33,510 would currently pay about $2,400 in premiums for health insurance. They estimated that the cost would jump under an Obamacare exchange by $783 to $3,183 a year, or about 9.5 percent of their income.

    7. Dan from Madison Says:

      When I was young and stupid, the last thing on my mind was my health insurance. I just wanted to make it to the weekend so I could go out and have fun and womanize and booze. I have a feeling if I were in my early 20′s right now, I would just blow the whole Zerocare thing off. I imagine many in that age group are doing the same.

    8. Jonathan Says:

      There are less than 30 days for the other 99.3% of the individual healthcare market to get an Obamacare policy.

      -Not all individual health insurance policies have been canceled, so the relevant stat is probably significantly below 99.3%, but your point is still valid.

      -The penalty for noncompliance with the ACA is low because the Democrats couldn’t have gotten the law through otherwise. The law also allows people to buy insurance without penalty after they become sick. And in many regions Obamacare-compliant insurance is very expensive. It therefore seems highly unlikely that more than a minority of young people will ever sign up through the exchanges.

    9. VXXC Says:

      The above is only true if you think ACA is about Health Insurance Coverage.

      The naked and oft stated purpose of ACA is to destroy Private Insurance. The Progs trumpeted this when the legislation was being debated and passed. After the Public Option disappeared this was the only way they could solve it. Their Just solution was to have a Public Option to catch the people who lost their coverage. The public option was abandoned at the last minute and then the Bill passed.

      The purpose of ACA is to destroy Private Insurance.

      19 million were exposed to ACA in 2014 [notices October 2013], 5.6 million lost coverage.

      ACA is working perfectly. As it turns out all the deferments allow the enemy to be destroyed piecemeal, since he presents himself piecemeal.

      In 2014 a hundred million policies will be exposed, and tens of millions of policies will be destroyed.

      This not only allows the enemy [which is actually the Private Sector Middle Class] to be destroyed piecemeal, it allows endless opportunities for graft, bribes, favors, submissions.

      Which 99% of the victims will take if offered. It won’t be, but that will be much of the actual political negoitations of 2014.

      The eventual solution will be a sort of Fannie/Freddie MAE Healthcare with favored cronies on the Coverage [probably UHC] and Pharma Side [unknown to me].

      Fannie/Freddie Mae Healthcare represents further opportunities for proftiable enserfement.

      For there is great profit in getting men to pay to enslave themselves, you merely have to dangle a subsidy.

      You’ll take it. Watch yourselves take it. Yep.

      Occidi Ego enim ad defendat liberum servi.

    10. Jonathan Says:

      You’ll take it. Watch yourselves take it.

      I’m not sure about that. Certainly the Left wants single payer. But the system has to deliver on at least some of its promises, and the customers need to have no alternatives, for your statement to be correct. I think it’s quite possible that so many Americans will decide that the govt system is worthless and they want no part of it that it won’t get off the ground. Or it may end up as the new Medicaid that all but the poorest people avoid. Time will tell.

    11. tomw Says:

      Jonathan said:
      Not all individual health insurance policies have been canceled, so the relevant stat is probably significantly below 99.3%, but your point is still valid.

      Per talking heads, approximately 6 million individual policies have been canceled. From above, a very low percentage of them have been re-written under PPACA rules.

      I think the involved find the law burdensome, unworkable, unfriendly, obnoxious, intrusive and a whole list of other negative adjectives.

      Perhaps they are going to take the lead that the over-26-and-not-on-Mamas-policy group will take: Just Say No.
      I suspect they have looked at the mess and passed. No thanks, dude. I’m going to the quarry and jump into the water this weekend, and don’t have time to waste, plus my job doesn’t pay enough for me to afford the premiums.
      The formerly “Responsible”, who had policies they were satisfied with, could afford, and EXPECTED TO keep or re-new, are going to become the new ER customers. The government is going to subsidize some, so why not me? After all, I have been paying for years, and haven’t made any claims, so they OWE ME.

      Good luck, Mr President. Your economic Topsy is growing fast, and will soon reach the tipover point, and you will not be able to right the system. You hand-grenaded it with lies, carve-outs, and waivers for the favored {unions and DC elites} and people are fed up with it. Good luck in 2014 if you have a “D” after your name on the ballot.

      tomw

    12. MikeK Says:

      “I think it’s quite possible that so many Americans will decide that the govt system is worthless and they want no part of it that it won’t get off the ground. Or it may end up as the new Medicaid that all but the poorest people avoid. Time will tell.”

      I agree and believe that Obamacare is Medicaid for all. Next summer, when the Democrat panic is at its peak, the Congress will alter the law to allow other plans to be sold. These will likely be high deductible catastrophic plans that, with an HSA, will allow the middle class to exit Obamacare. That will leave the rest in Medicare which can be altered by states.

      We may yet, by accident, get real health care reform I predicted this..

    13. Jonathan Says:

      BTW, I’ve posted links to Michael Kennedy’s health-care-reform blog posts in the Chicagoboyz right sidebar — see the “Notable Discussions” link list.

      Here are the links:

      http://abriefhistory.org/?page_id=3076

      http://abriefhistory.org/?cat=184

    14. Trent Telenko Says:

      Othersare picking up on the fraction of a small fraction payment problem:

      Report: Less Than 15 Percent of Obamacare ‘Enrollees’ Are Actually Covered
      Guy Benson | Dec 12, 2013

      http://townhall.com/tipsheet/guybenson/2013/12/12/report-less-than-15-percent-of-obamacare-enrollees-are-actually-covered-n1761300

      The graph Benson links to here is just devastating for Obamacare, because the Obamacare enrollment ‘gold line’ isn’t golden, because it is made up of lies:

      http://americanactionforum.org/research/the-american-action-forums-affordable-care-act-monthly-enrollment-report-fo

    15. Trent Telenko Says:

      From Glenn Reynolds:

      PEELING THE ONION OF FAIL: HHS extends another ObamaCare deadline.

      The Obama administration on Thursday pushed back the deadline for consumers to make their first payment for coverage under the healthcare law.

      Rather than a deadline of Dec. 23, insurers will be required to accept premium payments through Dec. 31 for people who are seeking coverage that starts on Jan. 1.

      In a conference call with reporters, Health and Human Services secretary Kathleen Sebelius said insurers have the latitude to accept premiums even beyond Dec. 31, and that the administration was “strongly encouraging” them to retroactively cover consumers that submit late payments.

      It’s the latest in a string of unilateral delays the administration has implemented to buy time after the disastrous rollout of HealthCare.gov.

      In addition to the one-week extension for premium payments, the administration on Thursday formalized its announcement that consumers have until Dec. 23, instead of Dec. 15, to sign-up for healthcare coverage that goes into affect Jan. 1.

      Where, exactly, do they get the authority for all these exemptions, waivers, and extensions?

      Posted at 7:00 am by Glenn Reynolds

    16. CapitalistRoader Says:

      Enrolled but have had this message for the past two weeks at the Colorado site:

      Congratulations! Your eligibility application is complete for year: 2014 Your enrollment is submitted to the carrier. Exchange will send a notification once confirmation is received from carrier. Your healthcare coverage will begin January 1, 2014, if you buy before December 15th, 2013.

      So, here it is, Dec. 13th, and I got nothing from Kaiser. My old insurer has yet to cancel so maybe I can buy that policy for another month, although my insurance broker isn’t taking my calls. Currently #14 on hold trying to talk to the Colorado website folks.

      This ain’t pretty.