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	<title>Comments on: Inflation and Interest Rates</title>
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	<description>Some Chicago Boyz know each other from student days at the University of Chicago. Others are Chicago boys in spirit. The blog name is also intended as a good-humored gesture of admiration for distinguished Chicago boys including those pictured above.</description>
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		<title>By: John</title>
		<link>http://chicagoboyz.net/archives/4476.html/comment-page-1#comment-22718</link>
		<dc:creator>John</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 12 Oct 2006 12:20:34 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>&quot;what, if anything does that fact imply about the fundamental strength of their economies as compared to ours?&quot;

At least in the case of Japan, nothing. A couple of barriers in the Old Boy network of Japanese finance keep private investors from fully participating in the market there. First, the powers that be really don&#039;t want to be beholden to small shareholders, so in many cases it is difficult or impossible to buy less than 100 shares at a time - making investing expensive and riskier for individuals by decreasing the ability to diversify. DRIPs were unheard of when I lived there about 5 years ago. 

Real Estate is still held closely by developers and the descendants of the samurai class. the Japanese long prided themselves on their post war egalitarianism, but in reality the rich hide their wealth. A minor samurai family I know used to have a very small estate in Edo, about 40 acres. It is now in a business district in Tokyo, and the businesses now located there provide the family with millions of dollars in income. In that kind of market with huge population pressure and the remnants of feudal landholding still in evidence, real estate is not a truly free market, so small investor money can&#039;t flow there for higher returns.

Add to all of this the Japanese tendency to avoid risk and follow the crowd, you find that most people invest in big banks at low (less than 1% when I lived there) interest, or, in the case of the Post office (WTF* is the post office doing in the banking business anyway?!?) zero point zero interest, and you need to save at a tremendous rate in order to build any retirement wealth because your ROI is diddley times squat. 

Sure they would prefer to get higher interest, but there is no alternative - the banks are a big oligopoly (even more so after the 2002-4 spate of mergers); the Post Office used to regularly make loans to state-identified critical business at zero percent interest, and thus could not give any ROI to the investors, and most Japanese are too frightened of risk to go offshore for higher yielding instruments. Those who might be less risk averse are usually wealthy enough to get in on sweet deals afforded by the domestic Old Boy network.


* I know the historical answer to this question, but it still boggles my mind, even if the Japan Post is about an order of magnitude more polite and efficient than ours.
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;what, if anything does that fact imply about the fundamental strength of their economies as compared to ours?&#8221;</p>
<p>At least in the case of Japan, nothing. A couple of barriers in the Old Boy network of Japanese finance keep private investors from fully participating in the market there. First, the powers that be really don&#8217;t want to be beholden to small shareholders, so in many cases it is difficult or impossible to buy less than 100 shares at a time &#8211; making investing expensive and riskier for individuals by decreasing the ability to diversify. DRIPs were unheard of when I lived there about 5 years ago. </p>
<p>Real Estate is still held closely by developers and the descendants of the samurai class. the Japanese long prided themselves on their post war egalitarianism, but in reality the rich hide their wealth. A minor samurai family I know used to have a very small estate in Edo, about 40 acres. It is now in a business district in Tokyo, and the businesses now located there provide the family with millions of dollars in income. In that kind of market with huge population pressure and the remnants of feudal landholding still in evidence, real estate is not a truly free market, so small investor money can&#8217;t flow there for higher returns.</p>
<p>Add to all of this the Japanese tendency to avoid risk and follow the crowd, you find that most people invest in big banks at low (less than 1% when I lived there) interest, or, in the case of the Post office (WTF* is the post office doing in the banking business anyway?!?) zero point zero interest, and you need to save at a tremendous rate in order to build any retirement wealth because your ROI is diddley times squat. </p>
<p>Sure they would prefer to get higher interest, but there is no alternative &#8211; the banks are a big oligopoly (even more so after the 2002-4 spate of mergers); the Post Office used to regularly make loans to state-identified critical business at zero percent interest, and thus could not give any ROI to the investors, and most Japanese are too frightened of risk to go offshore for higher yielding instruments. Those who might be less risk averse are usually wealthy enough to get in on sweet deals afforded by the domestic Old Boy network.</p>
<p>* I know the historical answer to this question, but it still boggles my mind, even if the Japan Post is about an order of magnitude more polite and efficient than ours.</p>
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		<title>By: david foster</title>
		<link>http://chicagoboyz.net/archives/4476.html/comment-page-1#comment-22717</link>
		<dc:creator>david foster</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 11 Oct 2006 14:38:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www390.pair.com/chicagob/blog/004476.php#comment-22717</guid>
		<description>From today&#039;s FT: Indian companies now have an investment pipeline of about $150B compared with a pipeline of only about $50B three years ago. The $100B swing is not huge in the context of the world economy, but is interesting directionally.

The Indian PM says the country needs $320B in &quot;infrastructure&quot; investment over the next 5 years to lift growth to 10%/yr. Not clear if the $320B includes all of the $150B, or not.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>From today&#8217;s FT: Indian companies now have an investment pipeline of about $150B compared with a pipeline of only about $50B three years ago. The $100B swing is not huge in the context of the world economy, but is interesting directionally.</p>
<p>The Indian PM says the country needs $320B in &#8220;infrastructure&#8221; investment over the next 5 years to lift growth to 10%/yr. Not clear if the $320B includes all of the $150B, or not.</p>
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		<title>By: Jonathan</title>
		<link>http://chicagoboyz.net/archives/4476.html/comment-page-1#comment-22716</link>
		<dc:creator>Jonathan</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 11 Oct 2006 13:27:39 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>If Chinese and Japanese investors would rather receive 0-5% on their money than put it into potentially higher yielding investments, what, if anything does that fact imply about the fundamental strength of their economies as compared to ours?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>If Chinese and Japanese investors would rather receive 0-5% on their money than put it into potentially higher yielding investments, what, if anything does that fact imply about the fundamental strength of their economies as compared to ours?</p>
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		<title>By: david foster</title>
		<link>http://chicagoboyz.net/archives/4476.html/comment-page-1#comment-22715</link>
		<dc:creator>david foster</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 11 Oct 2006 12:46:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www390.pair.com/chicagob/blog/004476.php#comment-22715</guid>
		<description>Tom...I&#039;ve read in a couple of places that a lot of the investment in China has a very low return on capital. Possibly due to a combination of excessive private investor optimism, combined with governmental meddling.

I agree that Grameen-style microcredit has much to be said for it...wonder if any of this is going on in China?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Tom&#8230;I&#8217;ve read in a couple of places that a lot of the investment in China has a very low return on capital. Possibly due to a combination of excessive private investor optimism, combined with governmental meddling.</p>
<p>I agree that Grameen-style microcredit has much to be said for it&#8230;wonder if any of this is going on in China?</p>
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		<title>By: Tom Grey - Liberty Dad</title>
		<link>http://chicagoboyz.net/archives/4476.html/comment-page-1#comment-22714</link>
		<dc:creator>Tom Grey - Liberty Dad</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 11 Oct 2006 07:24:09 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>I recall reading that, prior to &#039;89, Japan had a very high savings rate -- but the US economy had a much better record at investing.

The rate of return on investment is what I&#039;m missing in the above analysis, and I submit that China and India can both develop quite quickly without slurping up too much capital thru wiser investment. 
(Aid, of course, often has no return on investment, and in fact a negative return in that it teaches corruption.)

Investing in good projects, or a high yield portfolio (1 in 5 making 10x returns, perhaps) of projects is exactly what creates wealth.

Grameen bank-style micro-loans both have good returns and hugely increase the velocity of the money as well as the production quantity, especially for local consumption.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I recall reading that, prior to &#8217;89, Japan had a very high savings rate &#8212; but the US economy had a much better record at investing.</p>
<p>The rate of return on investment is what I&#8217;m missing in the above analysis, and I submit that China and India can both develop quite quickly without slurping up too much capital thru wiser investment.<br />
(Aid, of course, often has no return on investment, and in fact a negative return in that it teaches corruption.)</p>
<p>Investing in good projects, or a high yield portfolio (1 in 5 making 10x returns, perhaps) of projects is exactly what creates wealth.</p>
<p>Grameen bank-style micro-loans both have good returns and hugely increase the velocity of the money as well as the production quantity, especially for local consumption.</p>
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		<title>By: ZF</title>
		<link>http://chicagoboyz.net/archives/4476.html/comment-page-1#comment-22713</link>
		<dc:creator>ZF</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 08 Oct 2006 18:27:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www390.pair.com/chicagob/blog/004476.php#comment-22713</guid>
		<description>Interesting. The other really big thing this analysis should teach us is just how large the suppression is savings is, which is caused in Western countries by government &#039;safety nets&#039;. Just imagine how prodigious our saving would be, with Chinese propensities to save and our own income levels. We would be a fabntastically richer country.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Interesting. The other really big thing this analysis should teach us is just how large the suppression is savings is, which is caused in Western countries by government &#8216;safety nets&#8217;. Just imagine how prodigious our saving would be, with Chinese propensities to save and our own income levels. We would be a fabntastically richer country.</p>
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