I see no basis for this view.

If the GOP is really going to lose the House the numbers will continue to decline as that becomes increasingly clear. So, this is not an extreme, it is a point on a consistent trend.

It will take big news, out of the blue, to turn it around. I see no reason to think any such last minute thing is going to happen.

Markets get overdone. I’m not saying the Republicans will hold the House; currently it appears they will not. I am saying that the current opinion wave appears to be near an extreme, and that there is ample time for it to rebound, perhaps by more than anyone expects. It may not rebound but I think that’s the way to bet at the moment. That doesn’t mean the Republicans will win; it means that opinion, which has a reality of its own, is likely to revert toward what I guess is the mean of the odds distribution (i.e., the real odds seem likely to be higher than 30% even if they are lower than 50%).

If I had to make a prediction today, I’d base it on today’s information, which this futures price reflects.

Today’s prediction and the results of the election in three weeks are different things. It appears that the Republicans would lose if the election were held today, but that’s not what matters. A lot could happen between now and then. The market only discounts available information; it’s not a crystal ball. There is every reason to expect new information which, by definition, the market cannot discount, and such information need not favor the Democrats.

I like these markets just fine, but like all markets they are no more than reflections of what groups of people with competing opinions think. People in groups are often right but not always, and their errors sometimes follow patterns, and I think this may be one of those times. Or maybe it isn’t. We’ll know soon enough.

What do herd-following journalists have to do with anything? If these markets are no better than a reflection of what herd-following journalists say then they are useless. I think are quite a bit better than that, based on the high quality of their performance in the 2004 race, where Kerry was never ahead.

“…there are still three weeks to go, so it’s very likely that the available relevant information will change….”

There is no reason whatsoever to think such changes will favor the GOP. If there was such a reason, it would already be reflected in the price.

If I had to make a prediction today, I’d base it on today’s information, which this futures price reflects. GOP is in a deep hole, and it is no longer close.

You seem to like these prediction markets better when you like what they are showing.

Wishful thinking should have no place when looking at these things.

I have no reason to think the numbers as they are right now do not reflect the available relevant information. I see no reason to expect a bounce. I think it is every bit as likely that the bottom will fall out. If new information becomes available, the numbers will move — one direction or the other.

Also, I wonder if the drumbeat of negative projections for the Republicans won’t actually encourage some people to vote for them out of fear of a Democratic House majority.

But this, unfortunately, is convincing. If the online betting numbers are this bad, I take that as strong objective evidence that the GOP is going to lose the House.

Unlike some supposed libertarians who seem to perversely want an anti-gun, high-tax majority in there, I think this is a disaster. But until those numbers change, I think it is the most likely outcome.

I wish you were right, though.

In those races where the Democrat opponent is behind by a margin that can’t be fudged, like the Kovanator or Senator Lieberman, the declaration is rather clear. Now why is Lieberman, a clear and unrepentant supporter of the war so far ahead if the issue is the war? Where the pollsters can’t play loose with their numbers for their main employers, both the Democrats, who seem to live and die by polls, and their allies in the MSM, who need to have drama and action to sell and fill air time, the game appears over already. Do you really think the polling businesses would keep the money flowing in from their main suppliers if they had consistently projected 6 months out the actual results of the pervious elections?

It remains me of the behavior of the Soviet bureaucracy leading up to its collapse. Everyone was lying up the chain of command on production because that is what Moscow wanted to hear. Certainly some things were getting done, but nothing near to what the papers said. Those were the same papers the CIA was reading which is why they were also caught by the quickness of the collapse of the system. They too believed the numbers.

Now this time around, maybe they’re right. However, if you start hearing the words which indicated that once again the gap is closing or its becoming tight, know that we’ve been handed another fast one by the usual suspects.

We’re lower than some of our “ggod firends and historic allies.”

GOP not doin g well not for odd reason s you gave but because (1) war in Iraq a lie and now a disasterz (2) massive budget deficit, not conservati ve at all, (3) scandal after scandal after scandal.