“I suspect that the mechanism of institutional containment as a replacement for maintenance of political belief will take its own, very 21st-century form, not very much like the one that obtained from 1947-89 or thereabouts.”

I disagree. Human nature doesn’t change, so why should organizational forms?

“I’ll be surprised if China lashes out in such a way as to provoke war. My perception is that the great Chinese risk is internal — a 21st-century analog of the Taiping Rebellion or the Cultural Revolution, with hundreds of millions of dead, but all within its borders.”

I’d be surprised too. But weakening regimes (Argentina, Iraq, etc) do dangerous things. Embracing China is hedging against a victory for globalization, but maintaining the MILC is hedging against such a calamity.

Lex – I’m glad you nudged me too (you’re a dedicated man, posting at nearly three in the morning Chicago time after a hard night of rock & roll).

“Stay in a state of grace …” – and don’t forget Matthew 5:9. A Crisis of 2020 seems to me likely, but it is not inevitable, and the possible death toll spans orders of magnitude. Thousands of KIA is a lot better than millions.

“Red v. Blue civil war here.” – In fact, Strauss & Howe suggested something pretty close to that, explicitly predicting talk of regional secession; and there was some (and could have been a lot more had the ’06 Congressional elections not gone the way they did). I think we’re edging our way past this particular threat; also that “progressive” windbags will never have the cojones for personal violence, though the antics of the ELF are not reassuring.

I encourage you to read GENERATIONS when you get the chance for their explanation of the timing of Constitutional crises, which Strauss & Howe would deem a type of “secular crisis.” The normal interval is 80-90 years; they go to some length to explain the different timing of the Civil War and relate that to the subsequent perception of it as (mostly) a disaster rather than as nearly the best possible outcome (as the Revolution and WW2 are generally perceived).

Mrs Davis – I am not sure how to square your prediction of “no [immense destruction in the US] in the next crisis” with, say, this, which I think pretty well finishes off the quaint notion that “[n]obody … can get here.” But as momentous as that event was, it did not, in fact, kick off the Crisis of 2020, and I cannot say, as I did just above, that said Crisis is not inevitable and then insist that destruction is coming. I can insist, however, that it must be actively prevented if it is not to occur.

Strauss & Howe use the phrase “new and seemingly unlikely alliances” to describe the rise of a political consensus, largely oriented toward protecting the rising generation, that replaces the former schism. It is partially, as you say, simply the result of somebody winning. But no one’s agenda will be adopted unaltered.

I have also stopped believing in economic dislocation, at least of the sort I’ve been hearing about from libertarians for the past thirty years. To the extent that I think Kurzweil is on the right track, supposedly insuperable problems like Medicare may turn out to be quite manageable. Peak oil is a phantom; nanotech will eliminate every resource constraint but one, that being real estate on Earth’s surface. Which means that people — the ones who stay here, that is — will still fight over land.

Dan – That’s some terrific stuff over on your blog. I suspect that the mechanism of institutional containment as a replacement for maintenance of political belief will take its own, very 21st-century form, not very much like the one that obtained from 1947-89 or thereabouts.

I’ll be surprised if China lashes out in such a way as to provoke war. My perception is that the great Chinese risk is internal — a 21st-century analog of the Taiping Rebellion or the Cultural Revolution, with hundreds of millions of dead, but all within its borders.

John/Lex – One of the more plausible hypotheses in Strauss & Howe is that secular crises are fomented by Idealist generations from whatever materials are at hand (and resolved mainly through the efforts of the younger Reactive and Civic generations).

There also was no purple in WWII, the Civil War or the Revolution. There were copperheads and tories in the later two, but never a synthesis of prior polarities. There will be no purple now. Instead, one side or the other will more or less (probably less) disappear when the response of the other to the crisis prevails, much as the isolationists disappeared in WWII.

More likely to my mind is economic dislocation of Joadian proportions with peak oil, the collapse of globalization, medicare, and asset values (read housing prices). As the Baby Boomer Apocalypse recognizes, there will be plenty of cranky boomers ready to direct our discontent on an obnoxious population. The only question is which one.

I have not read Generations, so I was not aware of the upcoming “crisis of 2020″. My kids will be just old enough to serve and die in it. Tough on us. Stay in a state of grace because death is inevitable and you cannot know the day or the hour.

I had not realized they predicted a “time of troubles”. I have long predicted something similar, and Robb’s book ties in well with that, since he thinks we are going to suffer a lot before we get ourselves reorganized on a racically decentralized basis. I am not sure it will be Islamic terrorism originating overseas. I think we will get buy-in from very large parts of our population that the terrorists are right, and that fighting against the Religious Right and Halliburton, etc. demand violence. This will lead to a confused but basically Red v. Blue civil war here. Dan from TDAXP put it well: “If history repeats itself, or at least rhymes, within a generation of 9/11 active support of al Qaeda inspired movements should be fashionable on college campuses.” There is a sign off the Eisenhower Expressway for “progressive talk radio” that says “Surge Protection”. So, the “progressives” are saying that they are aligned with the terrorists in Iraq against our soldiers and the President. Bush derangement syndrome is a step in a downward spiral, not a one-off. I sure hope Robb, Strauss & Howe and Dan Abbott are all wrong. But I don’t think they are.

Another cycle is the 70 years or so between major constitutional crises. Major institutional arrangements seem to last about three generations, usually with a pretty severe crisis in the middle. Jefferson thought we’d need a civil war every generation. Founding to Civil War, 74 years, Civil War to New Deal, 67 years, New Deal to ? — we are not at 72 years.

Interesting times coming around the bend. We are now living in a golden age of peace and fellow-feeling. Enjoy it while it lasts because it ia a wasting asset. There is going to be a discontinuity in our forward progress of serious magnitude.