Comments on: Abu Musab al-Suri: Theorist of Modern Jihad http://chicagoboyz.net/archives/5872.html Some Chicago Boyz know each other from student days at the University of Chicago. Others are Chicago boys in spirit. The blog name is also intended as a good-humored gesture of admiration for distinguished Chicago boys including those pictured above. Fri, 25 May 2012 05:38:28 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0.4 By: Lexington Green http://chicagoboyz.net/archives/5872.html/comment-page-1#comment-237885 Lexington Green Mon, 16 Jun 2008 18:18:57 +0000 http://chicagoboyz.net/?p=5872#comment-237885 If China engages in conflict with the USA it would be insane to go nose to nose with conventional military power. The Chinese leadership are cautious, thoughtful, self-interested, ruthless, unsentimental and long-term thinkers. They will find a way to thwart or neutralize or work around US conventional power, even if they come into some kind of conflict. More likely, they will heed Sun Tzu and try to gain their political ends without warfare. As to North Korea, their senior leadership may be insane. But factions within the NK leadership are sane, and self-interested. They are basically a small mafia who have a good life amidst abject squalor. They want to keep the gravy train going, not go out in an Asian Götterdämmerung. A conventional war would be one Hell of a show, but it would certainly lead to defeat for the North and the death of the regime. I suspect long term we will see ongoing provocation from the NKs, as a way to get further bribes and buy-outs from South Korea and others. Perhaps a faction will displace the Kim Family Regime and become a less troublesome client state to China, analogously to Burma. That would be a good outcome, compared to the status quo. Let us hope the current NK regime dies with a whimper not a bang. The USA should preserve its conventional capabilities, but I think they are going to become less relevant as potential foes steer clear of them. They will be deterrant forces, like our nukes, and thus rarely used. That would be good, too. Conventional war is very destructive and if it dies out as a way to solve disputes, good. The so-called "low intensity warfare" that is left is intense enough to keep people busy. If China engages in conflict with the USA it would be insane to go nose to nose with conventional military power. The Chinese leadership are cautious, thoughtful, self-interested, ruthless, unsentimental and long-term thinkers. They will find a way to thwart or neutralize or work around US conventional power, even if they come into some kind of conflict. More likely, they will heed Sun Tzu and try to gain their political ends without warfare.

As to North Korea, their senior leadership may be insane. But factions within the NK leadership are sane, and self-interested. They are basically a small mafia who have a good life amidst abject squalor. They want to keep the gravy train going, not go out in an Asian Götterdämmerung. A conventional war would be one Hell of a show, but it would certainly lead to defeat for the North and the death of the regime. I suspect long term we will see ongoing provocation from the NKs, as a way to get further bribes and buy-outs from South Korea and others. Perhaps a faction will displace the Kim Family Regime and become a less troublesome client state to China, analogously to Burma. That would be a good outcome, compared to the status quo. Let us hope the current NK regime dies with a whimper not a bang.

The USA should preserve its conventional capabilities, but I think they are going to become less relevant as potential foes steer clear of them. They will be deterrant forces, like our nukes, and thus rarely used. That would be good, too. Conventional war is very destructive and if it dies out as a way to solve disputes, good. The so-called “low intensity warfare” that is left is intense enough to keep people busy.

]]> By: Paul Milenkovic http://chicagoboyz.net/archives/5872.html/comment-page-1#comment-237520 Paul Milenkovic Sun, 15 Jun 2008 17:59:32 +0000 http://chicagoboyz.net/?p=5872#comment-237520 Aren't China and perhaps also North Korea regarded as offering a significant conventional arms threat to American interests, as widely defined. The conflict of China with Taiwan offers the potential for a conventional-power confrontation with the U.S. along with North Korea's artillery threat to Seoul. I am not sure that the days of potential army-against-army conflict between the US and another power are over. I am not saying the U.S. should go to war over Taiwan, but the possibility remains if a number of things go wrong. Aren’t China and perhaps also North Korea regarded as offering a significant conventional arms threat to American interests, as widely defined. The conflict of China with Taiwan offers the potential for a conventional-power confrontation with the U.S. along with North Korea’s artillery threat to Seoul. I am not sure that the days of potential army-against-army conflict between the US and another power are over.

I am not saying the U.S. should go to war over Taiwan, but the possibility remains if a number of things go wrong.

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