Comments on: The Enemy Commits All Its Forces to the Main Front

By: renminbi

renminbi — Mon, 08 Sep 2008 15:04:58 +0000

For the first Ali-Frazier match it was 2-1 Frazier here,2-1 Ali overseas, a great chance to make money if you had buds overseas. Can’t do that today.

By: Jonathan

Jonathan — Mon, 08 Sep 2008 08:11:10 +0000

Intrade: Actually around 10k contracts traded at 45 within a few minutes of each other. This means not only that someone sold them there, but that someone else bought them. Who knows what’s going on. But after all of these sales the bid is just under 45 and the mkt looks strong. If you wanted to hold down this market you might have to sell many tens of thousands of contracts over an extended period. You would probably also have to make a huge dollar amount of anti-McCain bets through other bookmakers. It might be possible to do this. It would be very expensive, if McCain ultimately won (and you would have to hold your position until the election, because if it went against you and you liquidated earlier you would push the mkt in the pro-McCain direction, which would make things even worse from your POV).

I wouldn’t be surprised if there are people who have considered attempting such market manipulation, but this is speculation on my part. I am not aware of any evidence that anyone has ever actually tried it.

By: Jamie

Jamie — Mon, 08 Sep 2008 07:33:58 +0000

The L.A. Times has hit on the strategy that could work better: They’re touting her support of teaching about contraception, notably condoms, in schools. (Link) Some smarty-pants finally realized that the biggest danger she poses is that the conservative “base” now really, really wants to vote for McCain, instead of grumbling, sighing, and maybe staying home on Election Day, and that the counter to that danger is to paint her as as weakly socially conservative as possible.

It’s still a loser, I think; she still has the evidence of her life.

The rest of the danger she poses is among women like me (except that I was never in the Clinton camp). They’ll drop the “she should be home with her kids” thing soon, I believe, and maybe switch to, “She reached the top by cheating!” Again, a loser.

By: LotharBot

LotharBot — Mon, 08 Sep 2008 07:14:21 +0000

Speaking of Intrade:

As soon as the McCain contracts jumped to 45.9, somebody sold of 5620 of them for 45.0, dragging the price back down to 44.0 soon after (Sep 8, 1:15:29 AM EDT). Most transactions seem to be for 20 or fewer lots, and I don’t see any groups of over 550 available. I’m no expert on this, but perhaps someone with a bit more knowledge can tell me… does this strike you as a Soros-style “try to drop the market” shot, or just somebody cashing in?

By: cjm

cjm — Mon, 08 Sep 2008 05:43:10 +0000

just read the ny times story and unless i missed something, it was very reasonable. not a puff piece, not a hit piece, just a straightforward telling of her last pregnancy and how she balanced it with the demands of being govenor. totally unexpected given the source. looks like the msm has been tamed, which is a huge loss for obama.

By: LotharBot

LotharBot — Mon, 08 Sep 2008 05:30:23 +0000

One of the things that has really surprised me is how enthusiastically people have attacked based on really scant evidence. I’ve heard a number of really pathetic attacks based on misrepresented or fabricated evidence:

- the claim that she said Iraq is a “task from God”. She did say those words, after saying “pray that…” Quoting the whole sentence changes things quite a bit.

- the claim that she’s for abstinence-only education. She stated she’s against “explicit” education; she clarified that she thinks contraceptives/birth control should be taught, and that what she has a problem with is overly graphic sex ed.

- the claim that she put her town deep in debt. The vast, vast majority of it is due to the sports complex that the taxpayers voted on, and that the taxpayers voted in a way to pay (.5% sales tax increase.) Whining about that is like whining about someone being “in debt” because they took out a low-rate, 30 year fixed mortgage on a house.

- the claim that she said something racist in an unknown restaurant in an unknown city on an unknown date, dining with an unknown number of people, which was overheard by an unknown individual with an unknown reason for being in the restaurant.

About 90% of the anti-Palin arguments I’ve heard are along these lines. People are digging for dirt, and it’s obvious why if you look at intrade and various polls: McCain/Palin are gaining ground fast, and they’re not going to stop unless someone digs up some serious dirt.

By: renminbi

renminbi — Mon, 08 Sep 2008 05:06:40 +0000

Lex-look at Intrade again-as the odds drop they are going to panic-MSM and Obama.They are not in control of themselves.Even if O knows what to do he can”t control MSM who are proving a disaster for him.

By: Tatyana

Tatyana — Mon, 08 Sep 2008 04:37:34 +0000

Here's one attempt, according to Vince.

By: cjm

cjm — Mon, 08 Sep 2008 03:59:39 +0000

they sense that palin has connected directly with a ton of people and that going after her has serious consequences, even for the largest outlets. people are attacking the media (figuratively for now) and show real agression towards their persons. i think the media will decide it’s safer and easier to go after obama, just to save their own hides.

By: Lexington Green

Lexington Green — Mon, 08 Sep 2008 03:59:34 +0000

I did not predict they will succeed.

I don’t know if they will. They may fail for the reasons you mention.

What I do predict is that they will try.

By: Jonathan

Jonathan — Mon, 08 Sep 2008 03:53:21 +0000

The media will try it. However, the Internet buffers bogus information: Kerry’s tall tales about Vietnam got debunked, as did the fabrications about Bush’s National Guard service. So unless Palin did something scandalous that no one yet knows about, the MSM will not succeed. Also, to the extent the media put out bogus accusations about Palin they will immunize her against any last-minute revelations (unless the media hold off on demonizing Palin until just before the election, which they will find difficult to do).