Lancet Update

Via commenter AMac:

Tim Lambert has a new post that responds to some of Shannon’s arguments and takes me to task.

AMac himself posted this comment on Tim Lambert’s site, and I think summarizes well most of the important concerns about the Lancet piece. AMac is more cautious in his inferences than I would be, but I may be wrong and he may be right. He is generally thoughtful and fair-minded, and his contributions to the comment threads on this topic have been very helpful. I suspect that the data used in the Lancet study are of such low quality as to be of little practical use, but additional scrutiny of those data can’t hurt and should suggest ways in which future surveys could be improved.

UPDATE: AMac helpfully forwards some additional links in his comment below.

UPDATE 2: AMac provides this link to his latest and greatest post at WOC. Worth reading.

Customer Service: The New Paradigm

In chronological order:

1 Need backup hard drive.

2 Order HD with free delivery. Get it in a couple of days. Easy!

3 Order HD enclosure from popular high-speed/low-drag online retailer.

4 Install HD in enclosure. Plug into computer. Computer doesn’t recognize. Plug into second computer, with same result. WTF?

5 Driver conflict? Attempt to contact tech support at enclosure mfr. Phone number goes to answering machine. Send email query. They answer in a couple of days: “We will upload the driver to www.rosewill.com, please check the site in few days and down load the driver.” OK.

6 Call retailer. Much time on hold. Customer-svc rep can’t help, says only option: send back for refund, pay restocking fee — hassle, and still need an enclosure. Decide to wait a while: maybe mfr will upload driver soon? That will solve all problems! Yes.

7 Waiting for drivers to be uploaded. Two weeks pass. Nothing. Retailer’s time limit for refund expires.

8 Annoyed. Finally dawns that there is no driver. Mfr was blowing smoke, or smoking blow, or something. Go to retailer’s website and complete online RMA request to return enclosure. Append testy note demanding refund. Fedex enclosure back to retailer.

9 Still need a HD enclosure. Still curious why enclosure didn’t work. Check out customer reviews of returned enclosure at retailer’s site. Hmm. Latest review, added since I purchased enclosure, says:

The only thing that had me struggling for a while is that the drive was brand new and XP Pro will not recognize the unit unless the disk is partitioned. That would have been nice to know 2 hours ago. Also, the jumper setting on the disk drive has to be “Master (Single)” and NOT the factory default of “Cable select”.

10 I’m using a brand new, unpartitioned disk. Do you think. . .

11 Partition HD using another enclosure. Takes 1 minute.

12 Receive replacement enclosure, identical to first, from retailer who completely ignored note attached to RMA request.

13 Install HD and test. Works immediately. Perform computer backup.

14 Total time: 7 weeks.

Lex’s Books Finished in First Quarter of 2005

(I enjoyed putting together my list of books read in 2004, and got some positive responses. But since the list for the entire year was too long, the individual entries were a little bit truncated. So, I decided to do a more substantive post now, since the additional detail may be of interest so some of our readers.)

H. John Poole, Tactics of the Crescent Moon (January, 2005)
The book adds a specifically Middle Eastern dimension to Poole’s earlier material (Reviewed here.). Poole offers interesting speculation on the key role of Hezbollah and the Iranian Sepah (Revolutionary Guards) as chief instigators of regional terrorism and inventors of suicide bombing. Poole concludes that winning the war on terrorism regionally and globally will require a re-focus away from a maximizing firepower to a light infantry focus with more discriminating use of aimed fire. This too is consistent with Poole’s other writings, which advocate focused and even minimalist employment of firepower — both from a moral and a practical standpoint. Poole also sees the need for a large non-combat element to follow the combat forces, to win the “hearts and minds” battle which is fundamental under current conditions . Poole’s proposals are fully consistent with Thomas Barnett’s prescription for a “SysAdmin” force, and with the requirements of “4th Generation Warfare” as described by William Lind and Thomas X. Hammes. UPDATE: As of March 2005, it is interesting to see the events in Lebanon, which may well isolate and weaken Hezbollah, or engross its energies in a civil war, in light of Poole’s assessment of Hezbollah’s importance as the “worst of the worst” in the world of terrorism.

Read more

Happy Easter

…. many of us as are living humbly in the fear of God. Who those secret ones are, who in the bosom of the visible Church live as saints fulfilling their calling, God only knows. We are in the dark about it. We may indeed know much about ourselves, and we may form somewhat of a judgment about those with whom we are well acquainted. But of the general body of Christians we know little or nothing. It is our duty to consider them as Christians, to take them as we find them, and to love them; and it is no concern of ours to debate about their state in God’s sight. Without, however, entering into this question concerning God’s secret counsels, let us receive this truth before us for a practical purpose; that is, I speak to all who are conscious to themselves that they wish and try to serve God, whatever their progress in religion be, and whether or not they dare apply to themselves, or in whatever degree, the title of Christian in its most sacred sense. All who obey the Truth are on the side of the Truth, and the Truth will prevail. Few in number but strong in the Spirit, despised by the world, yet making way while they suffered, the twelve Apostles overturned the power of darkness, and established the Christian Church. And let all “who love the Lord Jesus Christ in sincerity” be quite sure, that weak though they seem, and solitary, yet the “foolishness of God is wiser than men, and the weakness of God is stronger than men.”

Sermon 22. Witnesses of the Resurrection,
John Henry, Cardinal Newman (and here, and here.)

Army Reserve Components Boost Enlistment Age Limit

“The Army Reserve and the Army National Guard have raised the age limit for recruits from 34 to 39, Defense Department officials said.”

Further details here.

If the war starts to go really, really bad and they raise it to 42, I’m in. My wife will kill me. But I will.

(Any of our readers who join under this new program, and who get sent to Iraq, and can get Internet access, can post on ChicagoBoyz as our Iraq correspondent.)