So the Democratic Socialist Zohran Mamdani has won the Democratic primary for New York City mayor.
I’m not going to go into much detail about the guy except to say he is someone who seems to be the political embodiment of the progressive millennial, or if you like, a Columbia University protestor. Bowdoin College graduate, where he founded the campus chapter of Students for Justice in Palestine, and an avowed socialist who has promised as mayor he would make life affordable by having the city take over grocery stores.
You know the type, a person who thinks the fact that his policies have never worked is a mere implementation detail.
Given that Mamdani has the Democratic nomination, the Republican nominee is a nobody, and the incumbent Eric Adams (running as an independent) has an approval rating somewhere around 20 percent. Unless something dramatic happens Mamdani will be elected as mayor in a little over four months.
There’s some smart commentary out there about what this all means
Jesse Arm looks at the results and attributes Mamdani’s victory to his ability to get his supporters, younger progressives, to the polls.
Joel Kotkin writes about what it means for the future of New York City. Quick summary? Now would be a good time to open a U-Haul franchise in New York City.
Ruy Teixeira looks at the national implications and sees the overall effect as limited.
With apologies to Teixeira, who is one of the rare Democratic analysts who is both sharp and honest, that’s missing the point.
The national implications of Mamdani are not rooted in the electoral viability of progressive solutions, but rather in what lessons the Democrats take from Tuesday’s results as they prepare for next year’s midterms.
Yes, those lessons are partly rooted in the data, but they are also part of the psychological shock of what happened.
I’m going to go back to John Boyd’s OODA loop, specifically, “Orient.” Everyone, by definition, orients themselves to a perceived external framework in order to define their reality and therefore their decision-making process. That holds true for philosophers, hedge fund managers, conspiracy theorists, and the woman who freaked out on the plane a few years back. The ability to align that external framework with what is in fact really going on is a marker of future success.
Somebody who has their relationship to a preexisting external framework disrupted will find it difficult to think clearly. That could be due to finding out your spouse is having an affair or, if you are the French general staff in 1940, finding out the Germans aren’t doing what you had originally expected.
It’s not what happened so much as it is how you perceive what happened, and then how you act on that information. Are you resilient? Do you adapt and overcome — or do you freak out?
Andrew Cuomo was brought into the NYC race in March in order to defeat Mamdani. He had the name recognition, the experience, and he was backed to the hilt by the Democratic establishment. He still lost going away.
The Democratic political establishment’s external framework has (again) been disrupted. What lessons will it draw, going forward, in terms of the 2026 midterm elections, now a little over 16 months away?
Seven years ago, Ocasio-Cortez made waves when she took on an entrenched member of the Democratic establishment in the 2018 primary and beat him by 15 points. Mamdani’s victory is even bigger than that. Because of its timing Ocasio-Cortez’s victory, while a shock, could be absorbed and analyzed as the 2018 primary season was all but wrapped up.
In contrast, because of the off-years in which New York City holds its elections, Mamdani’s effect will be immediate.
State and national Democrats will be holding primaries early next year, just after a likely Mamdani victory this November, and as his mayoralty starts-up in January. Mamdani and the progressive coalition that fueled his ascendancy will be one of the dominant themes in Democratic circles in the months to come, because right now, to the Democrats, he is the strong horse.
The next AOCs are making their decisions now as to whether they will primary Democrats who don’t toe the progressive line, and incumbents are making their own decision on how to deal with an active primary situation – accommodate or fight. Politicians are a risk averse bunch so we can see where this is going.
My prediction is that the Democrats will embrace Mamdani. They have to, and not just because politicians are by nature mostly accommodationists (a kind way of saying cowards), but because they think they need to hold their party together in order to retake the House in 2026. The first one to accommodate is Jerry Nadler who has quickly endorsed Mamdani and will change his positions accordingly. He won’t be the last.
This is a nightmare scenario for the Democrats. Last November, they saw a clear road to re-taking the House in 2026. Five months in, not only has Trump remained strong in the polls, but the Democrats have taken the wrong side on seemingly every issue from illegal immigration to bombing Iran. The Democrats should have a clear path to swinging to the middle; instead they are supporting rioters standing on burning cars and waving Mexican flags. Now their radical wing has just announced its arrival on the scene.
My prediction for the Democrats during the Mamdani Ascendancy?
Pain.
On a related note, one way to track the effect Mamdani is having on the larger Democratic party is through observing the use of the word “affordability,” which is a key part of his campaign. As one can guess, affordability doesn’t mean working the supply-side or reducing inflation but rather public takeovers and price caps.
The underlying issue is the failure of “democracy”. Only a minority of citizens (and illegal aliens?) in New York voted in the Democrat Primary. Only a minority of those Democrats voted for the Communist. But a “minority of a minority” put the Communist on the path to becoming New York mayor, because lots of New Yorkers are blindly going to vote for the Democrat no matter who he may be.
New York is a microcosm of the “democratic” West. We citizens have been lax, and we are getting the government we deserve.
2026 is coming down the pike. Due to a host of issues, including gerrymandering, there are fewer and fewer competitive House races every cycle. So I don’t think the party-wide lurch to the left is going to hurt 2026 much. Where it could really hurt is in 2028, when the Democrats need to field a candidate for President. If Trump’s exit from the stage means the regular party apparatus can take control, then the Republicans’ long-established and hard-earned reputation as the Stupid Party may throw the Democrats a lifeline. Otherwise I think there is a chance for a McGovern-like flameout that will drag down the Democrats across the board, including the House and Senate races.
In some sense, the outcome of this race is not too different than the Trump emergence. Large groups of voters are unhappy, dissatisfied with the establishment groups running things, and are very open to just blowing things up to see if change at that level will improve things for them.
And Mamdani is a very effective campaigner. He’s young, his family works in the film industry and academia, and he campaigns really well, in a TikTok-soundbite kind of way that lets you skate past anything too substantive or deep (like explaining in detail how the math of your proposals will work) and file off some of the rougher edges. I think it is significant that a number of his few missteps have come largely in longer-format venues like interviews, etc.
Questions do abound, though-
What will Trump do? Mamdani will proably be almost as anxious to drag Trump into the race as Trump will be to start feuding with him. The best thing for Trump is to stay out of it, but he rarely misses a chance to mix it up on social media.
What will Cuomo do? Presumably he needs to step aside and allow opposition to Mamdani to coalesce around someone else, but will his ego allow him to shuffle off the stage?
Can the opposition coalesce around a single candidate that can actually run and win? Guess here says no- too many things would have to break just right for that to happen.
Both parties have tended to move in a more radical direction, partially as voter dissatisfaction with the ways things are going has grown, and partially in response to the opposition’s continuing radicalization. Turnout in primaries is usually tiny, and consists of the least centrist elements. When you are talking about (probably) non-competitive House races, that is one thing, but races for governorships, the Senate, or the Senate are another. Are primaries still a useful tool for choosing good candidates in these circumstances?
What lesson will the Democrats take from this? For the progressive wing of the party, they’ll want to take this to mean the page has turned in America, and they can run candidates that share their goals and values without compromises like Hillary and Biden. AOC for President in 2028? Problem is that New York City is not representative of the country. A whopping 40% of its residents are foreign-born, for example. Housing and living costs in general are high, and there are (at the moment) still plenty of rich people and key businesses like Wall Street that will be happy to stay around and pay up for the privilege. It’s not like they have options elsewhere outside the city or anything like that.
My prediction: Mencken will win again.
More than a minority, I would say it’s a plurality but that has always been a criticism of the primary system that small number of party voters set the table for the larger electorate.
If Mamdani wins, that will make radical mayors running the top 3 US cities – LA, Chicago and NYC. The interesting thing is that Brandon Johnson won in Chicago not only during an off-year election but during an April election. Talk about culling the electorate.
So to apply Boyd, what external framework will elected Democrats adopt? That this is a one-off, a weird set of circumstances that generated a radical Tik-Tok star or somebody that needs to be accommodated?
The Democrats have, like the Republicans, been involved in their own intra-party civil war since 2015, just substitute Bernie Sanders and progressives for Trump and MAGA. However unlike Trump who finally won last year, the Democrats have never resolved their fight – simply kicked the can down the road.
That papering over was facilitated by the Biden regency when the various factions in the party could be bought off with the fruits of powers – DEI, trandgenderism, spending. However even then the alliance was fraying after 10/7 when Gaza became the radical Left’s cause. Now with the Democrats out of power nationally and the need for discipline disappeared the radicals can let their freak flag fly.
The bet is that the Democrats will continue with the previous framework of accommodation. However just like an aging NFL team whose core of talent just isn’t getting it done, the Democrats know deep in their hearts they need to do a teardown and a rebuild rather than just staggering on. A full-blooded purge of the radicals, but that won’t happen until they lose even more elections.
A full-blooded purge of the radicals, but that won’t happen until they lose even more elections.
An alternative prediction: The Democrats will continue to move leftward as their older, moderate voters die off and are supplanted by younger voters who have been indoctrinated in lefty schools and universities. Hard-left candidates will continue to win elections in the bluest parts of the country. The country will continue to stratify along left/right political lines as remaining blue-state residents who aren’t leftist ideologues or govt beneficiaries continue to migrate to redder areas.
“The Democrats will continue to move leftward as their older, moderate voters die off and are supplanted by younger voters who have been indoctrinated in lefty schools and universities. Hard-left candidates will continue to win elections in the bluest parts of the country.”
In addition to that, the remaining ambitious and somewhat leftish but reality and results-based politicians in those cities sense that there is not any chance for them to succeed, and nothing is more off-putting than the stink of repeated failure, so they don’t even try. New York might already be approaching the death-spiral that took down smaller, but formerly prosperous cities like Detroit, and Gary, under Mamdani and his ilk. Promise your constituents free stuff and the moon, meanwhile the productive and wealthy beat feet to the exit, followed by middle class workers, then quality of life craters … and all the wishful thinking in the world about being something special as a city won’t hold back the doom. I know that New Yorkers believe with all their heart that their city is special, essential, and indestructible but there are limits. New York may find them, soon enough.
Gooder and harder.
“Never interfere when the enemy is making a mistake.”; possibly Napoleon said something similar.
“We have met the enemy and he is us.”; Pogo.
California is approaching the holy grail of green with $8 gas, presumably $10 diesel. I bet it costs at least $500 a load extra to haul anything in or out of state, so it’s not like the rest of us are disinterested bystanders..
Leaving aside whether the poor benighted souls of California, Illinois and New York are the enemy, what are the odds that Bass, Johnson and Mamdani, one or all, are under Federal indictment for obstruction by Nov. ’26?
Maybe it’ll make the Dutch happy that they swapped it for a couple of Spice Islands.
As for modern Americans: sell it back to the Injuns?
(Mind you, treating this sort of thing as purely a joke is unwise for anyone from Germany, France, Sweden, the UK, Italy, and so forth, for we are all going to be deep in the mire soon enough. The suicide of Western Civilisation – rather a pity, in my view.)
Holland is becoming a vilayet of Morocco, we saw how the government recently collapsed because it could not stomach the reasonable reforms of Gert Wilders, next door in Belgium,
a Turkic Islamic Party is gaining ground, Italy seems to be holding the line for now, under Meloni, but apres les deluge, who knows,
We citizens have been lax, and we are getting the government we deserve.
We have been betrayed. No one in the West voted for their countries to be swamped by foreigners, yet all are. In the US, note that the opposition to illegal immigration has been strong enough to get the Bad Orange Man elected three times, and yet still the Deep State is fighting tool and nail to prevent anything from being done about it.
About that minority of a minority, in my experience people got fed up with the democrats, voted republican, then became independant after noticing the GOP did nothing, and then became indifferent. A lot of those folks turned out for Trump- and I’d guess the NY equivalent turned out for Mandani.
I’d futher guess that Mandani will look a lot weaker after more people find out about his plans and realize that they’re what’s for dinner. Note also that the NY eastablishment doesn’t require voter ID and surely can find plenty of votes against him when the times comes.
That said, I make no claim to know much about NY politics, not least because I have no special reason to care.
But good luck to them!
Xen: “We have been betrayed. No one in the West voted for their countries to be swamped by foreigners, yet all are.”
So true … and yet, it is tough to come up with one name of a “representative/MP/etc” who has been voted out of office because her citizens were disgusted with her support for uncontrolled illegal immigration. Most of us keep on voting for the party our grandparents voted for, or stop voting altogether. Collectively, we have allowed ourselves to be betrayed. Western “democracy” has failed, and we are not doing anything about it.
MCS at 1032am
I suspect that your price predictions for gasoline and diesel are a bit on the optimistic side. It is caused basically by the shutdown and dismantling of refinery capacity due to state government regulation. That is not something that can be replaced politically by waving a magic wand. No petroleum company with half a lick of sense is going to want to invest in refining and storage in the Peoples’ Democratic Republic of California knowing that the Politburo is just aching to shut it down.
Complicating this further is that California is a state whose population centers basically run north and south. Gasoline and diesel are moved in bulk by pipelines, and in California, what petrol pipelines they have run primarily east-west. I suspect that this is because before California decided not to be part of the First World, tankers would bring petroleum to the ports where there used to be refineries before the state went to war with them. And the finished products would be shipped east to the interior of the country. So California cannot ship any theoretical surplus refined products north and south, no matter how much they may want to.
There is not going to be construction of pipeline(s) in anything approximating our lifetimes because of the same tax, regulatory, and environmental empires that caused the refineries to be shut down. And to be honest, they are no longer capable in California of doing that kind of major capital construction. There are several mountain ranges between the California coast and Nevada. California is 5 years overdue and over 1000% over budget on a so-called “high speed rail” that runs basically on flat ground in a valley. It just ain’t gonna happen.
The past pluperfect subjunctive of the verb describing California’s future economy is “scrod”. Their probable reaction to the shortage of petroleum fuels will be to impose more costs and restrictions on the remaining energy companies in the state to punish them, causing more to leave. Actually, businesses leaving California before things go 10-7 is probably a good idea. Unless you are in agriculture, in which case you are stuck; if you manufacture and ship tangible goods you are going to be in a world of hurt.
Subotai Bahadur
…it is tough to come up with one name of a “representative/MP/etc” who has been voted out of office because her citizens were disgusted with her support for uncontrolled illegal immigration.
I think I must disagree. In the EU, this issue appears to be well on the way to completely obliterating the political establishment. In the US, it has already gifted the GOP to the guy who promised to deport illegal aliens- despite endless hysterical attacks against him and his supporters from the usual suspects of the regime.
I recall when George Bush attempted to force an amnesty through congress despite the intense opposition from the GOP base. The end result was the Trump presidency- but that also turned his brother Jeb! Bush into a punchline. Please clap.
Thus, I would conclude that absent this issue the GOP would be completely different and Trump would still be known as a real estate magnate with a reality TV show.
That would likely be a better world- but alas we do not live there.
Xen: “In the EU, this issue [uncontrolled illegal immigration] appears to be well on the way to completely obliterating the political establishment.”
That may be a little on the optimistic side. Yes, the Euro peasants are whining a lot about the consequences of effectively open borders. Some of them are even revolting. But the impact so far on the European Ruling Classes (with the exception of Hungary) seems to have been minimal. It is rather obvious that the Ruling Classes do not reflect the interests & concerns of the bulk of their citizens.
Of course, failed Western “democracy” is going to break down some day. But who can say when?
As a Maine resident, I am embarrassed that Bowdoin College, that gave the Nation Joshua Lawrence Chamberlain, has devolved into a Bill the Cat parody, and coughed up this hairball to afflict NYC…
Regarding Maamdani – I read this comment elsewhere on the internet and think it is spot-on.
“Let me tell you how this will go. Let’s say Mamdani wins (I don’t think he will, but I digress), he’ll get the seed money from the city council for a “study.” One of the usual kickback suspects will conduct the study…for a year. Then a year after that some “pilot” location will open to great fanfare. For all intents an purposes, it will look like a Kroger, Publix, Giant, etc. on opening day and the MFM will gaze in wonder upon a grocery store as if it is a newborn panda. Somehow, the price of building, stocking, and running the thing will never be a subject of conversation. Did I mention the workers will be unionized?
Then six months later, someone from the right side of X will visit and the place will be shambles. There will be one brand of everything and few of those. This finding will be called “misinformation.”
Six months after that, two or three of the employees will be indicted for racketeering. These prosecutions will be called “political.”
The pilot will close to little fanfare six months after that.”
[ Hat tip to “Wallace and Gromit]
“Somehow, the price of building, stocking, and running the thing will never be a subject of conversation” Also: the government stores will not be required to pay real estate tax..of course, the difference will have to be made up by other taxpayers…and if new buildings are constructed, they will be funded by tax-exempt government debt.
I will also add that because of the relatively small size of this grocery store “chain” it will have a reduced supply chain/distribution network which means it will not only need to work with more middlemen – thus increasing costs – but will have a smaller IT system to manage it
I;ll agree with the earlier sentiment that the public grocery store idea is probably a gimmick. Johnson in Chicago floated the idea a year or two back as a way of dealing with “food deserts” – of course much like with Mandami and his canard of “affordability it’s just a political ploy
Mandami and his accusations of price-gouging is really just a 21st Century American replay of “kulaks.”
I’m not familiar with the details of grocery store issues in NYC but I will point to one from the DC area. Giant Foods, a large Mid-Atlantic grocery store chain, was going to close a sore in in southeast DC because it was losing an estimated half-million in theft – do the math and that’s about $1,000 per hour. You cannot run a low-margin operation like groceries that way.
Of course there was a massive hue and cry about the proposed closure because it was the only supermarket around but no one pointed the finger at the people who caused the problem – the shoplifters. As I had pointed out at the time, with the type of theft going on it had to be well-known in the community who was doing it and thereby sabotaging the community.
I never visited the site, but I’m sure its pricing was comparable to other company locations and the store itself was of ample size and had a parking lot. It should have worked… but it didn’t
Urban planning and development is a mishmash of various interests and to get the necessary permissions and permits to build, often a developer needs to do some extra work like provide parks and supermarkets. Call it giving back, I call it extortion.
The ‘government store’ will be as well run as most government run operations.
Not that it would be a viable proposition, using some latest shopping ‘features’ such as placing an order and picking it up might limit shrinkage losses as there’d be no customers inside the store to cause them. OTOH, a government store would likely be out of stock on the favorite items, as they have no need for customer satisfaction, much like the DMV. Being the only choice allows for higher prices, poor quality and limited choices.
The future Mayor may propse such stores, but it is likely they would be poorly operated, lacking in everything except things people didn’t want to steal. Those items would be in stock…
If Mamdani should become mayor, let it happen, and stand back. His choices may cause the voters to think before pulling the lever next time. Not a finger would I lift to assist his governance. Mencken would be proud.
I think another component in the decline of our major cities is that the really good politicians realize they are unsalvageable, and thus being a mayor is a career-killer. So the good politicians look elsewhere for a ladder to climb. That’s why Chicago and now NYC don’t have any decent candidates for mayor.
Most grocery stores outside of places like NYC are no more than appendages of pharmacies in terms of revenue. Most pharmacies have higher revenue and higher net than the store with a fraction of the people and space. My impression, possibly wrong, is that pharmacies aren’t in most of the stores inside of the suburbs.
Certainly in NYC, the punishingly high cost of floor space has to enter into it, Grocery stores aren’t very space efficient. You can probably put three or four IPads in the same space as that $10 box of cereal, that would cost less than $4 in the ‘burbs.
Finally, you’re not going to see many shoppers pushing more than one cart and there aren’t many orders that will add up to three figures when there’s no parking lot with a car waiting to haul it all away. Or a big refrigerator and separate freezer to keep it in.
The high rollers will continue to use the “bespoke” stores where price is beneath consideration and delivery isn’t an issue because the housekeeper will be there to put things away.
MCS – the revenue models for stores typically are built around the “milk” philosophy where loss leaders exist to lure you in to buy the higher margin items – such as store brands. You said ” is that pharmacies aren’t in most of the stores inside of the suburbs” – you mean inside of the cities?
As to politicians and cities, yes running big cities is typically a terminal route for politicians. Not only is there an executive-legislative divide but it requires dealing with different, more parochial constituencies and issues than say governor, I am trying to think of a big city mayor who was able to make a jump into national politics and it fails me. Plenty of stories of big city mayors trying for state-level office – governor or senator – and failing miserably, often never making it out of the primaries. Thik Ed Koch trying to state-wide let alone Giuliani nationwide.
Btw… it’s not just mayors, but also congressmen. Congressional critters deal with smaller, much more focused constituencies and it requires a much different set of skills to jump to a state let alone national level.
Everyone thinks AOC is going to go to the Senate, but she is somewhat trapped because her position is dependent on her mystique as the socialist “it girl.” It would be a risky endeavor for her to try to break out of her NYC-centered base and put that perception in danger. On the other hand she’s not going to go far in national politics as a Rep., if she runs in 2028 she will be badly exposed.
Yeah, should have been something like; “inside the suburban ring”.
What I am beginning to see, with the voters of NY (those who still bother to vote) increasingly electing left, leftier and leftiest mayors and representatives – is another ongoing curleyization process, wherein the electorate is shaped to empower the left, leftier, and leftiest, while the productive, wealthy, and discouraged middle class flee for the exits.
Think of Mamdani as the Temu Justin Trudeaux – he promises the rabble plenty of bread and circuses, while the AWFLs get all moist in their panties and meditate on how dreamy he is.
I wonder if Mamdani really wants to win…
Think about it. If he does win then he’s on the hook for providing municipal services for a city of 8 million people – all the TikTok videos and globalizing intifadas in the world isn’t going to get the garbage collected or dealing with bus schedules.
All of that right in America’s media capital, this isn’t going to be South Bend, IN.
A smart take would be whatever government a DSA member runs will be the last one they do
This guy really doesn’t want to be mayor, does he?
I would imagine his best case scenario would be the anti-Mamdani forces pull together behind Adams for the win. That way Mamdani has the best of all worlds – he can claim he is the victim of conspiracy, he doesn’t have to do any real government work, and his crusade will live on.
A best case scenario for Mamdani
The grocery stores are a sort of side show. Where it will really hit the fan is if he gets what he wants for “strict” rent control.There are already landlords suing their mortgage lenders, trying to force them to foreclose and take money losing buildings off their hands.
This isn’t a question of socialism vs. capitalism, it’s socialism vs. even stupider socialism. I would expect a statute to repeal the law of gravity in the five boroughs would pass the council by a wide margin, only surprised it hasn’t happened yet.
You cant repeal gravity
https://x.com/alx/status/1940895435448897801