Norway Overhead Power Lines

When in Norway recently I focused on what any typical traveler would find interesting… their overhead power lines.

We took a ferry in the fjord in the area of Norway west of Bergen, the 2nd largest city in the country. Off in the distance I could see the pylons, and since the fjords are so steep and tall they looked very tiny in perspective.

Since Norway is blessed with immense amounts of hydropower, they have little need for conventional fueled plants. Hydro power is the most significant of the “alternative” generation assets (as opposed to the more “hip” wind or solar power sources), and once built the costs to “run” the site are very low (although the glacial debris does damage the generators; they had an exhibit in their “glacier museum” that showed the impact).

Read more

Social Security – Ending The Myth

The US Social Security system consists of a tax on employees and on employers. The main components are 1) Social Security 2) Medicare.

How Social Security Taxes are Calculated:

The social security tax rate on individuals is 6.2% up to $106,800 (this amount has been increasing annually, that is the 2011 “cap”) and this rate was reduced to 4.2% in 2011.

The social security tax on employers is also 6.2% up to $106,800. The employer tax percentage was not reduced in the 2011 “payroll tax holiday” that was put in place as part of the grand budget compromise last year.

For medicare – it is 1.45% on employees with no limit, and for employers it is also 1.45% with no limit.

In total – if you are self employed, it is (6.2+6.2 less 2% tax holiday) or 10.4% FICA up to $106,800 and a medicare tax of 2.9% up to your total income.

The Social Security “Trust Fund”

The revenues from social security go into Federal government coffers. Then benefits are paid out of Federal funds. Technically the “surplus” of social security revenues over amounts paid out goes into a trust fund but there is essentially nothing “saved” in a real sense, just an “IOU” from the Federal government promising to use their taxing (and more likely, their borrowing) power in the future to meet this obligation.

While many people have been skeptical about social security’s ability to pay out benefits in the past (including a recent candidate who called it a “Ponzi scheme“), there was at least a logical smidgen of truth to the fact that the US government attempts to tax in a clear fashion from workers that will someday benefit from social security and then pay out benefits in a consistent manner.

Recent Tax Proposals

Recent tax proposals, however, start to remove the last fabric of the lies that allowed social security to be seen as anything other than another government entitlement program, funded by a mix of taxes with a lot of borrowing thrown in (at an unsustainable rate). The new proposals cut the individual rate to 3.1% (and the employer percentage down to 3.1% for smaller payrolls), a reduction from the pre-holiday combined rate of 12.4% down to 6.2% (for smaller companies). There is a separate $50M holiday for companies increasing payroll that makes this calculation more complex, and the medicare portion stays the same at 1.45% for employer and employee to total 2.9%.

Since social security can barely cover its current obligations now out of tax revenues, likely these changes will move it into the red immediately, and eliminate the fiction that the surplus is “saved” in a trust fund anywhere at all. Now social security looks like any other tax program, subject to the whims of the government and changing policy preferences, rather than a pension plan which it is made out to be.

Taxes and Behavior

The current administration is curious. On the topic of raising rates, they don’t think that it changes behavior. Specifically, they fought the prior administration’s tax reduction as “giveaways” to the rich who could afford to pay taxes, as if the rich would work just as hard in order to provide an ever increasing percentage of their income to the government.

But they DO believe that reducing rates can incent behavior other times, such as in “cash for clunkers” or the previous tax reduction holiday. More specifically, they take a myopic short-term view that putting a bit of extra cash into workers’ pockets will help their constituents, but making a more competitive tax policy overall (that will spur investment and growth) isn’t anything that is worth investing in or considering. I am frankly kind of surprised that it took the administration this long to consider a payroll tax holiday, since all they care about is the short term impact on their logical supporters, and this is the quickest way to reach them. I wouldn’t be surprised if the government tried to turn hiring into a tax INCENTIVE, and then just raised taxes everywhere else, or just borrowed more money. If your only goal is to put money in your supporters’ pockets in the short term, this is a (sad) way to do it.

At least these policy proposals put a lie to the myth that social security is anything other than an entitlement program supported by government tax revenues. If nothing else positive comes out of the debate, a little bit of more obvious truth is a small benefit.

Cross posted at LITGM

Lollapalooza 2011

Lollapalooza 2011 is happening now at Grant Park in Chicago. Friday was the first day and it was HOT during the day (and not too terrible late in the evening).

Lollapalooza always has interesting people to watch. Upper left – no idea why you’d want a tattoo of a sailor on one leg and a Hawaiian dancing girl on the other leg or what that might signify. Upper right – they have an amazing row of portable toilets, stretching as far as the eye can see. This is mid-set at Muse; around 8pm (when everyone was trying to get in before the headliners I heard the lines were 10 deep at every single one of them). While not related to this post my favorite porta-john links are right here. Lower left – the girl was very dedicated to her hula hoop. She “hooped” all afternoon and into the night, when it lit up. She didn’t seem to talk to anyone, this was her “gig”. Lower middle – trying to beat the heat and stay out of the sun on the slope by the south stage near the cabanas for the rich and famous. Lower right – monkey bus on the way out.

Read more

Our Electricity Future (a bleak version)

A recent Bloomberg / Businessweek article on Pakistan provided a pithy summary of a possible energy future for the US in an article titled “Convoys and Patdowns: A day in the office in Pakistan”.  The article describes the robberies, violence and general chaos that a business manager faces daily in that country.  However, this part might be surprising to readers that would think the Taliban would be a managers’ top concern:

Political violence is not National Foods’ worst problem.  “The biggest problem by far is energy”… Demand for electricity in Pakistan is three times supply.  President Asif Ali Zardari is trying to attract independent power producers to Pakistan and has big plans to build hydroelectric plants.  Companies cannot wait.  “We have created a mix of power we get from the grid, and what we can generate using our gas and diesel generators.”  Many factory floor, office and bathroom lights are kept off to compensate.  Ali often visits the powerhouse, a room at the plant that contains huge German-made diesel generators.  Scarcity of fuel is a frequent worry.  Bigger companies like Lucky Cement don’t rely on the national grid at all.  It started generating its own power in 1996 and can produce 150 megawatts from its plants.

Karachi’s residents have taken to the streets this summer… to protest outages lasting days at a time.  “In the morning I assess my workers”… “If I find someone is stressed out because he hasn’t slept all night without electricity… I have to change his shift and give him easier work”.

Electricity is something that most Americans took for granted as reliable and available for a reasonable price for many years.  After California’s disastrous “de-regulation” experiments in 2000-1 (check wikipedia where they have a pretty good summary under “California Electricity Crisis“), the citizens of that state at least woke up to the fact that the machinery that delivered reliable and reasonably priced electricity was falling to pieces.

The core of the issue is that to meet future DEMAND for electricity, you have to procure appropriate SUPPLY, and then BRING it to the customer.  Given our “NIMBY” culture, and difficult regulatory regime, there has been little incentive to develop new “baseload” generating capacity to procure supplies for the future.  In addition, a lack of investment in new transmission lines, which are needed to bring supply to the customer, limits our ability to tap new sources of electrical generation and there is little financial incentive to devise a solution to this issue.  As a result, we have a long-simmering problem that will come to a head in various guises over the next 20 or so years.

One more subtle issue, that is little discussed, is that electricity started as a public monopoly, meaning that one company provided you generation, transmission and distribution of power and you paid that company a single payment for doing all those services.  While there are many problems with this model (inefficiency and lack of innovation), there were positive elements, mainly that it worked and provided a reliable service to everyone for a reasonable price.

Read more