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  • Very Global Guerillas-esque vision — From the British MOD

    Posted by Lexington Green on June 12th, 2006 (All posts by )


    Of all places
    . (See also this.)

    “ONE of Britain’s most senior military strategists has warned that western civilisation faces a threat on a par with the barbarian invasions that destroyed the Roman empire.”

    Quoting Rear Admiral Chris Parry, head of the “development, concepts and doctrine centre at the Ministry of Defence”, who is “charged with identifying the greatest challenges that will frame national security policy in the future.”

    He identified the most dangerous flashpoints by overlaying maps showing the regions most threatened by factors such as agricultural decline, booming youth populations, water shortages, rising sea levels and radical Islam. Parry predicts that as flood or starvation strikes, the most dangerous zones will be Africa, particularly the northern half; most of the Middle East and central Asia as far as northern China; a strip from Nepal to Indonesia; and perhaps eastern China. He pinpoints 2012 to 2018 as the time when the current global power structure is likely to crumble. Rising nations such as China, India, Brazil and Iran will challenge America’s sole superpower status. This will come as “irregular activity” such as terrorism, organised crime and “white companies” of mercenaries burgeon in lawless areas.

    Hmmm. I’d like to see the map. I bet it looks a lot like the Gap.

    Meanwhile, the Brits are probably going to be axing one of their planned aircraft carriers. Wise move to ditch a Cold War anachronism — or foolish move, sacrificing a valuable 4GW power-projection platform? I suppose it depends on what the person with the checkbook wants to hear.

    The Brits are speculating about (reconfiguring for?) a new Barbarian Invasion. And it sounds kinda plausible.

    That concerns me.

    (via EU Referendum Blog)

     

    8 Responses to “Very Global Guerillas-esque vision — From the British MOD”

    1. Ginny Says:

      Your understated “this concerns me” is a nice conclusion. I have seen more cheerful posts. Always one to see the big picture in terms of my little one: In short, your quite young children & mine that are at the marrying & begatting stage will have a much harder time than we did. As mine proceed in the grand march of wedding dances this weekend, your post will be in the back of my mind.

    2. ed in texas Says:

      Does it seem odd that the Brits can’t justify 2 aircraft carriers, but the French have 3?
      (hmmm…)

    3. veryretired Says:

      3 carriers that do nothing aren’t worth 2 which do carry out actual military activities.

      I love the almost classical references, but I’m afraid I see mid-1930’s, not the decline of the Empire. Appeasement is the danger, not conquest by barbarians, although there are plenty of those around.

    4. Robert Schwartz Says:

      The Brits won’t need to aircraft carriers to fight this enemy. They live in Manchester.

    5. ed in texas Says:

      I’m afraid I’m gonna hafta correct myself; the French finally retired Foch and Clemenceau, according to ‘hazegray dot org’ (great naval web site). All they’re currently running is DeGalle.

    6. Dan tdaxp Says:

      I like this post a lot. Note that defining the gap even more narrowly — as just Afro-Islamic — and throwiing the rest of Barnett’s Gap in as the “Seam” predicts nastiness, brutality, &c even better.

      PS: How is this related to GG?

    7. Lex Says:

      Dan, I agree that the deepest gap is the Arab Middle East and the Muslim parts of Africa. Barnett hates this, though. That is the so-called “arc of instability”.

      I thought the British MOD description of the types of groups that would flourish in the future broken down world sounded like the discussions on the GG site.

    8. Sonny Says:

      I don’t see any earth-shattering insight in what the Brit Admiral said. So, Africa and the ME are flashpoints. Really? Thanks Admiral. Now all my deployments to the region become clear to me. Terrorism? No way! China and Iran challenging the US? OMG, we better get ready.

      BTW I don’t see how a carrier is a 4GW platform. I don’t think a carrier is a Cold War anachronism either. At least to the US. We have carriers deployed supporting OIF and OEF right now and taking care of business down SW Asia conducting very non-Cold War-like missions. Especially now and in the near future, when we are transitioning to an more expeditionary force a carrier is a perfect way to project power (and operate from) close to places where we don’t have basing rights. Take care.