Chicago Boyz

                 
 
 
 
What Are Chicago Boyz Readers Reading?
 

Recommended Photo Store
 
Buy Through Our Amazon Link or Banner to Support This Blog
 
 
 
  •   Enter your email to be notified of new posts:
  •   Problem? Question?
  •   Contact Authors:

  • CB Twitter Feed
  • Lex's Tweets
  • Jonathan's Tweets
  • Blog Posts (RSS 2.0)
  • Blog Posts (Atom 0.3)
  • Incoming Links
  • Recent Comments

    • Loading...
  • Authors

  • Notable Discussions

  • Recent Posts

  • Blogroll

  • Categories

  • Archives

  • Iraq Symposium

    Posted by Jay Manifold on December 4th, 2006 (All posts by )

    In response to Glenn’s request

    (Some definitions below are drawn from ANSI/PMI 99-001-2004, the Project Management Book of Knowledge, 3rd Edition; or from The Deming Process Workbench: An Application at MCI.)
    Strategy:

    1. Create a separate cabinet-level department for overseeing the transition from recently-defeated enemy nation to independently functioning polity or polities, as opposed to making this a DoD responsibility.
    2. Include a sunset provision so we�re not stuck with it forever, as we seem likely to be with, for example, both the DoEs and DHS.
    3. Perform SWOT (strength/weakness/opportunity/threat) analyses.
    4. Assign appropriate risk-response strategies to identified threats (�negative risks�):
      • Avoid � change plan to eliminate threat; isolate objective from risk�s impact; or relax objective in jeopardy.
      • Transfer � shift negative impact of threat, along with ownership of response, to third party (I note that this should be the long-term strategy for managing negative risks in all cases).
      • Mitigate � reduction in probability and/or impact to acceptable threshold (this involves direct action by the new agency; see �Tactics� below).
      • Accept � either passive: no action; or active: establish contingency reserve (time, money, resources).
    5. Assign appropriate risk-response strategies to identified opportunities (�positive risks�):
      • Exploit – eliminate uncertainty by making the opportunity definitely happen.
      • Share – allocate ownership to third party who is best able to capture opportunity for benefit of overall effort.
      • Enhance – increase probability or positive impact; identify and maximize key drivers of opportunity, as by proactively targeting and reinforcing trigger conditions.

    Tactics:
    The following items assume both that specific risks have been identified and that active strategies (mitigation, exploitation, enhancement) are preferred for addressing any remaining items after more passive strategies (avoidance, transfer, acceptance, sharing) have narrowed the list down.

    1. Define mutually-agreed-upon, measurable exit criteria for the departure of US forces from Iraq or specific provinces therein (several items in the Rumsfeld memo are instances of this).
    2. In parallel, define entrance criteria for employment of US forces against other nations in the area. Publicize these criteria through Congressional resolutions authorizing the use of force if they are met.
    3. Address Iraqi economic stresses with sizeable reconstruction efforts, employing local residents wherever possible and training them for managerial functions as well as entry-level work. Pay in dollars and encourage dollarization for long-term protection against inflation. Create an oil trust fund to give the entire population an incentive to cooperate as one nation.
    4. Encourage a truly federalized system within Iraq in which government functions are carried out at the lowest possible level.
    5. The first two items above are part of the development of a �war process,� which should take into account the belligerence, hostility, and ongoing threatening activities of Iraq�s neighbors, including the memetic engineering of Saudi-subsidized Wahhabism and Iranian-subsidized radical Shi�ism.
    6. Announce that the Iranian nuclear program would be acceptable if Iran were to hold truly free elections and accomplish an orderly transfer of executive power away from the radicals (�there are no dangerous weapons, only dangerous men� — R.A.H.). Make it clear that continued radical leadership imperils the existence of the program and the lives of everyone who works in it.
    7. Announce that the US will support a democratic Lebanon, up to and including military assistance, in its efforts to avoid Syrian domination.
    8. Acquire operational control over the Pakistani nuclear arsenal (rumor has it that we already control the launch codes).
    9. Give the Saudis deadlines for transition to a constitutional monarchy with free elections and a halt to their promotion of Wahhabism in American mosques. Enforce these deadlines with a blockade, if necessary.
    10. Consider targeting individual Saudi clerics.
    11. Initiate an aggressive nanotechnological development program for the development of materials (eg cheap photovoltaics) and mechanisms (molecular assemblers) to entirely eliminate American dependency on hydrocarbon extraction elsewhere in the world.
    12. Develop the capability to apply discriminate military force anywhere in the world on very short notice, from bases in the US, with the swiftness of ICBMs but without the WMD (see 61 Years Ago Today).

    That�ll do to go on �

    Discuss this post at the Chicago Boyz Forum.

     

    Leave a Reply

    Comments Policy:  By commenting here you acknowledge that you have read the Chicago Boyz blog Comments Policy, which is posted under the comment entry box below, and agree to its terms.

    A real-time preview of your comment will appear under the comment entry box below.

    Comments Policy

    Chicago Boyz values reader contributions and invites you to comment as long as you accept a few stipulations:

    1) Chicago Boyz authors tend to share a broad outlook on issues but there is no party or company line. Each of us decides what to write and how to respond to comments on his own posts. Occasionally one or another of us will delete a comment as off-topic, excessively rude or otherwise unproductive. You may think that we deleted your comment unjustly, and you may be right, but it is usually best if you can accept it and move on.

    2) If you post a comment and it doesn't show up it was probably blocked by our spam filter. We batch-delete spam comments, typically in the morning. If you email us promptly at we may be able to retrieve and publish your comment.

    3) You may use common HTML tags (italic, bold, etc.). Please use the "href" tag to post long URLs. The spam filter tends to block comments that contain multiple URLs. If you want to post multiple URLs you should either spread them across multiple comments or email us so that we can make sure that your comment gets posted.

    4) This blog is private property. The First Amendment does not apply. We have no obligation to publish your comments, follow your instructions or indulge your arguments. If you are unwilling to operate within these loose constraints you should probably start your own blog and leave us alone.

    5) Comments made on the Chicago Boyz blog are solely the responsibility of the commenter. No comment on any post on Chicago Boyz is to be taken as a statement from or by any contributor to Chicago Boyz, the Chicago Boyz blog, its administrators or owners. Chicago Boyz and its contributors, administrators and owners, by permitting comments, do not thereby endorse any claim or opinion or statement made by any commenter, nor do they represent that any claim or statement made in any comment is true. Further, Chicago Boyz and its contributors, administrators and owners expressly reject and disclaim any association with any comment which suggests any threat of bodily harm to any person, including without limitation any elected official.

    6) Commenters may not post content that infringes intellectual property rights. Comments that violate this rule are subject to deletion or editing to remove the infringing content. Commenters who repeatedly violate this rule may be banned from further commenting on Chicago Boyz. See our DMCA policy for more information.