The French will soon hold a referendum on the European constitution. Polls, which are usually less reliable than futures markets, show that NON vote is ahead of OUI vote.
I was interested if there is a betting market on this vote which I think is more important in its impact on the world than the election in Britain. I checked Intrade and couldn’t find anything. Is anyone aware of any other markets?
13 thoughts on “Betting on Euro Constitution Referendum”
Where are you putting your money?
Mine’s on “Non.” I’m betting on the contrary nature of the average Frenchman to derail this experiment in Anti-American Super-nation building. Germany and France are rethinking their axis, and leaning rightward in economic policy. And little Belgium will soon follow suit.
I would put my money on NON. My feeling is that the French people in general are not as anti-American, anti-Americanism being the rallying cry of the OUI vote, as the elite of Paris. And the French have a way of sticking it up to their elite — derailing their pet projects — in order to show their displeasure with their mis-governance. Also, the French knee-jerk Buchananite right has really played up the Turkish card, which I think is working in favor of NON camp.
I also think that the French are not as anti-American as is commonly believed. I suspect that the polls undercount EU opponents and that a high percentage of “no” responses may imply a landslide defeat for the Constitution.
The entire purpose of the EU is to force Germany to make payoffs to the Froggies. I cannot believe that the French voters will risk that little gravy train because of a pet against Chirac. I think they are just venting in the polls and will vote for the EU constitution.
Not an endorsement, but there are betting odds here:
Thanks, Cole. Looks like the money is favoring a yes vote, though not by much. Blast.
Cole – thanks for the site. I have a bit of trouble reading these odds. Do you know how it works? For example, what does 4/6 mean?
55% will vote NON, say the polls. However, for the Maastrich Referendum, the NON also was ahead, but the OUI passed.
The French are Europe-believers. The problem is that a mid-term referendum is like a mid-term election –a “plebiscite” for or against the current government.
And at this moment, the French dislike their president and prime minister. Two reasons for that: they have been in power for too long (the unemployment rate has risen) and there is an anti-libertarianism backlash in France (laissez-faire is thought to be the cause of the outsourcing).
As for the so-called anti-americanism, anyone observing how the French media lick the butt of the Hollywood stars when they land in Paris can only conclude that it is a misunderstanding. Actually, the fee-market and free-trade ideas are believed to be originating from the US, and that’s what the French are blaming the Americans. Add to that the neocons’ foreign policy, and you get the picture.
I’m pessimistic for my country. I’m an entrepreneur wannabe, and my only wish is to get out of here.
Chris, from south-eastern France
Betting odds: 4/6, as I understand it, means that a yes bet pays $4 for every $6 bet. A no bet (11/10) pays $11 for every $10 bet. The difference is the spread for the bookmaker. So the odds are modestly pro yes. If you click on the “info” tab they have some interpreation of the betting odds, indicating that yes is moderately favored over no at this point.
Cole, I think that means its a modest pro “no”. In other words, you are against the odds on a no by 4/6, i.e. you bet $4, and if it comes in “no”, you get $6. That is the less likely outcome. The 11/10 is for a yes. You cannot make money betting it to come in “yes.” A yes vote is the likely outcome.
BTW these oddsmakers were a much better predictor of the US presidential election than any poll. They didn’t move around much, either. So, based on this, I think, alas, the French will vote “oui” on the EU Constitution by a small margin. Hope I’m wrong.
Chris: Thanks and nice to hear from you. I hope that the situation in France turns out better than we expect.
Cole – thanks again.
Betting odds: 4/6, as I understand it, means that a yes bet pays $4 for every $6 bet. A no bet (11/10) pays $11 for every $10 bet. The difference is the spread for the bookmaker.
I don’t understand this. Why would anyone bet on a no vote if it means they get back $2 less than they put in (and if it loses, presumably they get back nothing)? The best outcome for the person betting is thus losing $2/bet, which doesn’t seem very motivating. :-)
I would guess that odds 4/6 mean that a person puts in $4 and get backs $6 if the bet hits. Likewise, perhaps oui: 11/10 means that if it comes in oui, the better gets $11 (having put in $10). The bookmaker gets their money from the difference between the amount everyone bet on oui and no, and the amount that gets paid out in either case. In other words, if say, oui wins, the bookmaker keeps all the money bet by those that bet no and pays those that bet oui just a bit more than they paid in – keeping the rest.
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