Bush, the Dollar and Inflation

Don Luskin is worried about the dollar, or more precisely, about how the Bush administration appears to be systematically — and irresponsibly — devaluing the dollar to buy the votes of exporters and union members. I was worried a few months ago. Is Don right? Was I right?

Well, gold was cheaper when I first became concerned. Now it’s trading at around $380/oz. Also, the dollar regained some of its lost value after I made that post in June. But now the dollar has fallen sharply from its recent highs, and its downward momentum (relative to the Euro, and especially the Yen) has accelerated since the recent G7 finance ministers’ meeting. Time will tell, but it seems likely that Don is right and that there has been a policy shift. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the dollar make a new low vs. the Euro and to continue weakening against the Yen.

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OPEC Supply Cut

This article is one of many which were out today. One theme was that it seemed odd that OPEC would cut production now, with quotes like this: “I am surprised that OPEC would reduce their output at a time when stocks are still substantially below historical norms and we are entering the high demand winter season in the northern hemisphere”, and this: “It surprises me that they were prepared to cut at these prices,” said Nigel Saperia of Swiss trading house Glencore. “I wouldn’t want to play poker with these guys.” Interesting. If a decision does not seem to make economic sense, you have to ask: does it make political sense?

Absolutely, yes. If I were the Saudis and the Iranians and Hugo Chavez and others in OPEC, I think it would be worth it to suffer some economic loss in the short term if I could bring on a recession which would finish off Bush’s chances of reelection. The Saudis in particular know that they are in the cross-hairs. Get rid of Bush, and you have a new lease on life.

OK. Yeah. This is pure speculation on my part, but it makes sense.

Interesting Interview

Drudge links to a story about inactive-reserve Israeli military pilots who, as a political stunt, are refusing to participate in attacks on Palestinians. This is typical posturing by Israeli leftists whose agenda doesn’t have enough political support to be enacted via conventional democratic means; sort of the equivalent of U.S. leftists using the courts to bypass legislatures. Ho hum.

But the article links to another, much more interesting piece: an old interview (Part 1, Part 2) with Dan Halutz, the commander of the Israeli air force. The interview is long, and the questions are skeptical — almost to the point of hostility — about General Halutz’s claims of moral authority. But it seems to me that he has thought through the issues and answers the questions well. He comes across as articulate, morally serious and intensely pragmatic.

Time to Update the U.S. Privacy Act of 1974?

That’s what tech-journalist Declan McCullagh suggests in his latest online column — after learning that jetBlue Airways sold his (and lots of other people’s) personal info to a contractor who is doing research for U.S. government data-mining schemes.

A presentation prepared by contractor, Torch Concepts of Huntsville, Ala., describes how it merged the JetBlue database with U.S. Social Security numbers, home addresses, income levels and vehicle ownership information it purchased from Acxiom, a company that sells consumer data. Not all the details are clear, but the presentation discusses how Torch, on behalf of Uncle Sam, tried to rate each passenger’s security risk level by analyzing the merged databases.

That kind of disgraceful privacy intrusion demonstrates that it’s high time to amend the Privacy Act of 1974, which restricts databases that the U.S. government compiles but does not regulate how agencies access databases the private sector runs.

Enacted largely as a result of a federal report on automated data systems, the Privacy Act covers any “system of records” the government operates with personal information on American citizens. It limits the use and disclosure of those records and requires that the databases be protected with “appropriate administrative, technical and physical safeguards” to preserve their security and confidentiality. Government employees who disclose records in violation of the law’s procedures can be fined and imprisoned on misdemeanor charges.

In today’s world, the venerable Privacy Act doesn’t go far enough. It worked when computers could be defined as “automated data systems,” but Moore’s Law has exploded early 1970s-era notions of computing speed, and hard drive capacity has increased even more dramatically. The law fails to address the “databasification” of modern life.

Sounds good to me.