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  • Leverage, dividends and our insanely low interest rates

    Posted by Carl from Chicago on January 30th, 2010 (All posts by )


    Like the famous Seinfeld episode where Kramer struggles to figure out how to profit from the fact that Michigan offers a 10 cent return on recycled bottles, I have been starting at this ad from Interactive Brokers for some time now. This had has been run in myriad financial papers and I have seen it all over the place. It is notable for the fact that it looks like it was drawn “on the back of a napkin” like the fabled dot-com business plans.

    The specific elements of the investing plan are as follows:
    – Interactive brokers can make margin loans at 1.25% annual interest. This LOW rate of interest is made possible by the country’s current super-low rate policy
    – Some stocks are offering dividends as high as 5%. In the current low interest rate environment (you are likely to get 2% on CD’s & government paper, and almost nothing on your money market and bank deposits), that 5% rate seems very enticing, especially since dividends are taxed more favorably on individuals than interest income (dividends are as low as a 15% rate, while interest income is as high as 35%+)
    – Interactive brokers will offer you LEVERAGE. By leverage, this means that they will LOAN you more money than you have in your brokerage account so that you can invest and magnify your returns, either UP or DOWN

    Using this method, the specific “napkin” offer is as follows:

    – You put up $100,000 of money in a brokerage account
    – Using that money as collateral, you borrow $400,000, or 4X leverage
    – Now you have $500,000 in your account to invest with
    – Pick 5 stocks yielding 5% or more, and invest $100,000 in each stock
    – Your stocks should then bring in ($500,000 * 5%) = $25,000 / year in income
    – The interest on your $400,000 that you borrowed from Interactive Brokers costs you ($400,000 * 1.25%) = $5000 / year in expenses
    – Your net income is $25,000 – $5000 = $20,000 / year
    – $20,000 / year in income on an investment of $100,000 is a 20% annual yield, at a time when you can only earn maybe 2% risk free. This is a substantial return

    The first thing people would ask is WHY Interactive Brokers would lend out $400,000 on a $100,000 investment at such a low rate? From a margin account perspective, Interactive Brokers doesn’t take much risk. Let’s say the value of all the stocks fall 10%. In this model, your portfolio value has dropped from $500,000 to $450,000. While your equity (investment) has shrunk from $100,000 to only $50,000, they haven’t taken a loss yet, because they can step in and liquidate your portfolio in the open market, take back their $400,000 (including the accrued interest to date plus any fees they want to charge), and hand you back your remaining cash. As long as they “pull the trigger” to liquidate the positions before it reaches the $400,000 mark (or nearby, so that they get their interest and fees), they will be made whole.

    This example indicates the “down side” of leverage. When the markets go against you, and your equity component is but a sliver of your total portfolio, even small market moves can kill you. At some level this is what caused the banking crisis in late 2008; the large institutions had little equity capital and super high levels of debt (more than 30X their equity available, depending on what you count as equity capital), meaning that even a small crisis of confidence or repayment risk started to topple the entire structure. You might ask WHY these banks, whose depositors are guaranteed by the US government (FDIC) and who are so central to our financial system that they cannot be allowed to fail could leverage up so much, but that is grist for another post (failed regulation).

    One question that I started asking as I stared at the napkin – how many quality companies are there out in the market that pay greater than 5% dividend yields? I am looking for companies with a reasonably strong share price and a history of paying high dividends, not companies that paid a modest dividend but whose stock price has fallen so far that it SEEMS like they offer a high dividend (these are unstable dividend payers who likely will lower their dividend at some point in the future).

    Using the cool Google Finance stock screener, I put in a criteria of stocks with a greater than 5% yield, more than $1B in market cap, and that they couldn’t have had a 52 week return of worse than -20% (to screen out ones that have a big dividend yield because their price has been plummeting). I was surprised that there were a number of major companies offering such high yields, including:

    – AT&T (T) at 6.62%
    – Altria (MO) at 6.9%
    – Southern Company (SO) at 5.38%
    – Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) at 5.2%

    So at least there were a number of reasonable candidates for this sort of analysis. You can see how the value of a company paying out dividends this high would rise in our current minuscule interest rate environment. On a personal note, when an ETF specializing in dividend paying stocks, DVY, came out about 5 years ago – I jumped in right away, figuring that it would be a good play with the reduction in taxes on dividend payments to 15%. However, this fund essentially loaded up on financial firms, which were viewed as reliable dividend payers, and was socked during the financial meltdown when many of the components either vanished or were severely punished.

    So far the “back of the napkin” has checked out – the real issue, however, is that we are mixing “apples and oranges” by seeking yield with a volatile assets. The 5 stocks (in this example) could easily drop by 10% in a narrow range of time, essentially making Interactive Brokers enact a margin call (they aren’t going to wait until you have zero equity in your account, at that point you’d be levered up 9 to 1). What you are betting on is that you can hold these assets and that they’ll trade in a narrow range (or up, a situation that we’ll get to next) for a reasonable amount of time, in fact at least a year or so in order to obtain that yield.

    The flip side is that if stock prices go UP, you will have a bonanza on your hands. In addition to the 20% yield that you’d earn if you were able to hold for a year, you’d get gains on both your money and the money you borrowed. If stocks went up 10%, your gain would be ($550,000 – $400,000 borrowed money – $100,000 original investment) = $50,000 on a $100,000 investment, or a return of 50% (on top of the 20% yield you’d receive). This is the “magic” of leverage – I saw an analysis one time that compared the S&P 500 return against hedge funds and if you levered up the S&P 500 with this sort of margin you’d receive returns that would give the hedge funds a run for their money (they almost all use leverage, too).

    The odds that this basket of stocks will decline by 10% or more, causing IB to liquidate your holdings to pay off the margin call, is pretty high. The yield play is really secondary to how long that you can avoid that sort of a down turn. On the other side, gains are very beneficial in this model. It probably doesn’t make sense to mix yield with leverage to this degree, unless you are a professional investor and this is only a small part of your broader portfolio.

    The low interest rates that we have today encourage risk taking because the government has set the rates so low. With low rates, virtually any business model with any sort of return looks at least feasible on a napkin.

    Personally, I was pretty impressed by the number of solid-looking companies paying such high dividends. Even with zero leverage, a 5% return is great, especially since the effective tax rate is 15% on these dividends (for now, at least, until the tax cuts are rescinded which is likely in 2011). The issue is that even a small market downturn will make that 5% return moot, if these stocks fall harder than a general corporate issue.

    This ad certainly did make me think about a lot of things; the power of leverage; the ability of a low interest rate environment to make almost any business idea sound good; and what is driving these companies to such a high dividend payout ratio.

    Cross posted at LITGM and Trust Funds for Kids

     

    13 Responses to “Leverage, dividends and our insanely low interest rates”

    1. Simon Kenton Says:

      Are they foreign? I don’t think US brokers can offer this level of leverage. The closest I know about are certain stocks that can be margined 30%/70%; many are still 50%/50%. So how do they get away with 25%?

    2. Carl from Chicago Says:

      Good point. I thought the limit was 50%, as well. I think for this example Interactive Brokers assumes you have other assets and this is a small part of your net portfolio.

      http://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/p.php?f=margin&ib_entity=llc

      Here is their page on margin calculation.

    3. Nicholas Says:

      This just demonstrats how insane effectively negative interest rates are. Hayek will be spinning so fast in his grave, you can probably get a government grant to find a way to harness it as a form of “alternative energy”.

    4. Nicholas Says:

      Speaking of Hayek, have you guys seen this?

      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d0nERTFo-Sk

      It’s bloody hilarious, and extremely informative.

    5. Rick in NY Says:

      The Carry Trade writ small. Mom n’ Pop can become a hedge fund too.

      If you could borrow at 1.25% and lend at 5.375% without any significant risk that trade would have been put on not with hundreds of thousands but with hundreds of millions or for that matter, a stray billion or more. And it has been.

      Funny how the blueprint for the carry trade gets advertised by “Interactive Brokers” on page C5 of the paper, and on the same day you can go to page A1 to see how the trade worked for those whose information was probably more extensive to those to whom the ad was directed. Nice!

      Of course the math works. But that isn’t the way the world works.

    6. Dan from Madison Says:

      “Of course the math works. But that isn’t the way the world works.” – Well said.

    7. Shannon Love Says:

      The bare feasibility of this scheme indicates that the financial markets are seriously out of whack. Specifically, the interest rates on loans has become disconnected from the value of stocks.

      Stock purchases and savings deposits should be competing products whose prices are linked to one another. Investors can decide to either buy stock or save and when they buy one the rate of return on the other has to go up in response to attract investors. This linkage creates a negative feedback which stops the system from flooding one part of the financial system with money while sucking it out of another.

      Right now, with interest pushed artificially low in an attempt to stimulate the economy the rate of return on savings can’t rise even when stocks are sucking out the money out of the banks. This is because the government is pumping money into the savings system. When investors take a dollar out of bank to buy stocks, the government replaces that dollar which keeps the return on savings low even while stocks rise.

      Allowed to persist, this is a ticking time bomb. It will lead to inflation, a runaway stock market followed by a severe crash.

    8. david foster Says:

      I’m pretty sure that these margin interest rates are subject to change on very short notice (if they’re not, then the company offering them is insane, since its own financing at these rates is almost certainly on a short term basis)

      Thus, the 1.25% rate that looks so attractive could turn into something considerably higher.

      It’s generally a bad idea to finance long-term assets with short-term liabilities.

    9. rorkesdrift Says:

      I would add one additional tranaction to this method of increasing your yield: sell call options at a strike price 10% above the basis of your basket of stocks. This increases your yield, locks in a gain if the market goes up and gives you a little more cushion if there is a decline.

    10. Joseph Somsel Says:

      You should also ask why are these companies paying out, in cash, such generous dividends?

      The answer is that these are essentially cash cows with limited long-term upside – most of the examples anyway.

      They certainly are not eagerly reinvesting into their core businesses so profit opportunties there must be slim.

      So, as a one year, leveraged play, it may well work but only as long as the fundamental economy that supports the cash cows also works.

    11. Anonymous Says:

      “I think for this example Interactive Brokers assumes you have other assets and this is a small part of your net portfolio.”

      If so their calculation is wrong. All of the collateralized assets must be included in the calculation. Of course that may clobber the rate of return, but then there is no upside in deluding yourself.

    12. Robert Schwartz Says:

      OOps. I is Anonymous above.

    13. Incognito Says:

      I’m somewhat familiar with what IB is doing. This is my understanding of it, which could be wrong:

      They are doing 4:1 margin only for “portfolio margin” accounts, accounts >$100k. You can’t get 4:1 leverage overnight without it, i.e. normal accounts are still 2:1 leverage.

      Portfolio margin is, as I understand it, when you hedge the positions in your account, in this case, with either single stock futures, or put options. So you buy the stock to collect the dividend, and simultaneously sell short the single stock future, or buy puts against the position. Buying a put obviously cuts into the profit, due to the option premium, so you can get a little creative and put on a synthetic short, which would be long put/short call.

      The idea with the hedged position is that the stock can crash, and the value of your positions will be protected. And you still collect the dividend.