Pace Jim Geraghty, Bush’s prospects as of three weeks before the 2004 elections were much better than are Republican House prospects now. Bush’s reelect odds back then were greater than 50% on Intrade’s futures market, whereas the Republicans are now below 35% odds to hold their House majority. This doesn’t mean the Republicans will lose (though Intrade’s markets have a good predictive record). It does suggest that today’s pre-election climate of anti-Republican media opinion is more representative of reality than was the MSM’s barrage of anti-Bush FUD in 2004.
(via Glenn Reynolds)