The consensus among Chicagoboyz seems that Obama will win; I would not argue. But the first commentor at Belmont Club’s post makes a point with which we might also find consensus (if, as one Chicagoboyz notes, also depression):
Last summer McCain said he would rather lose the nomination than lose the war and possibly this allowed some people who hadn’t before to understand the stakes involved.
McCain is no longer saying this because he doesn’t have to. But more than that, I think he now realizes the stakes involved require he win the election.
Fernandez analysis of McCain’s speech on Iraq & Afghanistan is thoughtful. Further commentary by Hanson is also to the point. This follows Belmont Club’s earlier analysis of Obama’s speech.
… which is why it is all the more puzzling that he isn’t campaigning as though it’s important that he win.
Well, that’s depressing.
Obama is a likable guy but right now he is untested and oversold. He did not perform all that well against Hillary Clinton, either as a campaigner or in the debates ( as opposed to his electoral strategy which was brilliant and precise). What’s amazing is that given Bush’s low approval ratings that Obama isn’t ahead by 25 %.The 44 -41 % lead that he holds represents a fractional edge and the issues that will dominate the general election have yet to be raised.
This is not a whole lot unlike 1960 where the young, handsome and charismatic JFK, who like Obama had little of substance to bring to the table, only squeaked by with one of the slimmest margins in American history. If Obama chokes in a national debate with McCain a la Mike Dukakis – and these will be probably the most watched debates in the history of planet Earth – he will lose the election.
I dont think he will win. And I dont think he’s likable at all. He’s a brittle prig.