17 thoughts on “Extremely Cool”

  1. Lots of other interesting stuff there, including different types of gearing, detailed in links.

  2. Astonishingly clear method of communication. I wonder what sorts of complexities besides watches have similar presentations. (Specifically I have in mind economics, hydrodynamics, quantum mechanics….) Not only does it enable understanding specific details. One can grasp how a complex string of factors work together to produce a controlled, designed result.

    It reminds me of an experience a decade of so ago when assisting a friend with his college study. I got to look at the tools becoming available for online classes. Among them were displays where one could change inputs, or change relationships between variables, and see the change in outputs.

  3. I find it very interesting that mechanical watches could be manufactured in the US, at US labor rates, and sold to US people at generally-affordable prices.

    Is assembly of an iPhone really more difficult and inherently labor-intensive that assembly of a mechanical watch?

  4. I find balance wheels to be mesmerizing. Back and forth, with the coil spring expanding and contracting. Back and forth, expand contract.

  5. }}} I find it very interesting that mechanical watches could be manufactured in the US, at US labor rates, and sold to US people at generally-affordable prices.

    Is assembly of an iPhone really more difficult and inherently labor-intensive that assembly of a mechanical watch?

    I’ve made some of these points before.

    1 — I may be mistaken, but I don’t think most watches are mechanical watches any more. The only modern-day mechanical watches I know of are style watches, and they are sold at high prices for caché…
    2 — quartz crystal watches are so much more accurate that they pretty much took over the market back in the 1970s — pretty much destroyed the “Swiss watch” industry, a classic example of a destabilizing technology destroying an otherwise strong, healthy, and fully developed industry. Plus, you can’t overwind them, which happened all the time with older mechanical watches. You could get watches that that would not happen with, but they were more expensive.
    3 — As was demonstrated back in 2009 (see link 1) — the iPhone 4, then retailed for US$600 (which a collection of bodies paid to Apple, regardless of how it was broken down between user, service provider, etc.) was “Made In China”. For which China was paid the massive sum of less than 7 bucks — yes, 1.1%. Sorry, that’s not a margin to chase after. The rest of that 600 went to Apple (about $360), and assemblies (about 190).. I doubt seriously if this has changed in the intervening 13y, except the $600->$1200
    4 — as a result of 3 above, people vastly underestimate the actual defacto health of the US manufacturing sector — we don’t “make” a lot, but we make lots of money on what is made “in other places”. As of 2015 (see link 2), the US manufacturing sector alone was the world’s third largest economy, in terms of revenue, behind the US total and China. The top 500 firms produced more wealth than even Japan’s entire economy.
    5 — the “shrinkage” of manufacturing sector employment was inevitable. Just as the margins on farm production minimized following the mechanization of agriculture, so, too, did the margins on making things with roboticization of industry. So the real value of all manufacturing today is in knowing HOW to make it, not actually making it. The result is that the income from manufacturing is up 40% in the last 20y, even as the employment by the manufacturing industry has dropped by 5% in the same time frame (see Link 3). More productivity per worker is a Real Good Thing. Whoodathunkit?

    Consider: in 1880, 85% of the US labor force was involved in food production on farms. By 1980, it was down to 3-5% of the us labor force. The rest got shunted over to manufacturing. It is perfectly reasonable and expected that we can see manufacturing employment dropping to 3-5% of the US labor force, with the rest being involved in/shunted towards “knowledge work and providing services”, as we are now in an “IP & Services” economy.

    Yes, I concur — the last couple years have shown the downside of manufacturing things elsewhere, especially as a “sole supplier”. Which I have no doubt with accelerate “reshoring” of manufacturing to a nontrivial extent (link 4), particularly of key industries. I know, for example, that Intel has at least two major facilities here in the USA (Arizona** and Oregon), and they have commenced the building of a huge new facility in Ohio.

    The real future of factories in the USA (and around the world)? See link 5. Yes, it’s fiction, and there will be a couple more floor workers, if only to hit the “SCRAM!” button, but, hey, it’s fiction. But markedly close to what can be expected in 50 years.

    =====================

    ** The Arizona facility has at least three fabs which can feed into each other in a chain. They can handle, currently, processes as small as 10nm (the top end is currently about 5nm, with 2.5nm on the near horizon). I’m betting that the Ohio facility will be able to do anything any other plant in the world can do.

    ————–

    Link 1:
    Apple iPhone: Designed in U.S., Assembled in China
    https://mjperry.blogspot.com/2010/07/iphone-designed-by-apple-in-us.html

    Link 2:
    As a Separate Country, the Top 500 US Manufacturing Firms Would Have Been the World’s Third Largest Economy Last Year
    https://www.aei.org/carpe-diem/separate-country-top-500-us-manufacturing-firms-worlds-third-largest-economy-last-year/
    Money Quote: The combined sales revenue (including global sales) of the top 500 US-based manufacturing firms in 2014 was $6.07 trillion, almost identical to manufacturing sales revenue in the previous two years ($6.01 trillion in 2012 and $6.07 trillion in 2013). To put those sales amounts in perspective, if the 500 largest US manufacturers were considered as a separate country, their revenue last year of $6.07 trillion would have ranked as the world’s third’s largest economy behind No. 1 US ($17.5 trillion) and No. 2 China ($10 trillion), and even more than $1 trillion ahead of No. 4 Japan’s entire GDP of $4.8 trillion in 2014 (GDP figures are based on International Monetary Fund estimates).

    Link 3:
    The US Produces 40% More Factory Output Today Vs. 20 Years Ago with 5M Fewer Workers.
    https://www.aei.org/carpe-diem/the-us-produces-40-more-factory-output-today-vs-20-years-ago-with-5m-fewer-workers-technology-job-theft/

    Link 4:
    Reshoring Updates
    https://www.aei.org/carpe-diem/reshoring-updates/

    Link 5:
    “Future factories”
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7omoVzuynmE

  6. A watch now is either pure vanity, or the result of an obsession with fancy things.

    Your phone runs NTP and will usually be within a quarter second or so, depending on the state of your network.

  7. David F: “I find it very interesting that mechanical watches could be manufactured in the US, at US labor rates, and sold to US people at generally-affordable prices.”

    And at the same period in history, life was in many ways better for most US citizens in terms of education, public safety, etc. And the US was still capable of being the Arsenal of Democracy if needed.

    Financializing the economy had short-term benefits for the upper echelons of society. Now we are beginning to see the long-term costs. Service jobs don’t pay for essential imports.
    Nor can the US produce enough IP when the universities are turning out so few technical graduates (compared to other countries) and the great R&D laboratories of the US past have been executed or castrated in the name of increasing today’s profits.

  8. You can buy very cool watches for extremely cheap. And you can spend a shockingly high amount for one as well. It’s not “vanity” necessarily.

    The major thing that was lost with the collapse of manufacturing was the hollowing out of whole cities, where the factories shut down then all the other businesses that catered to the employees shut down–the shops, diners, etc.–then you have an empty downtown that no one wants to be around, no one wants to start a new business in, etc. Just the sense that your town was worth something, that your life was worth something. A job where you physically make something, or do something, produces that in ways that computer based jobs just don’t, and certainly government benefits, no matter how generous, don’t.

  9. There will always be a market, or maybe audience would be a better term, for very elegant mechanical devices. There’s a discernible hobby of watch making and repair. I saw a story about a watch available for 2+ million that was something like 1.5 mm thick. Not much more or less practical than owning a painting. Extremely cool, indeed.

    There are actually many builders of high quality machine tools in the U.S. I’m not aware of any in China. All the tools needed to build things like the Mac Book Air came from Japan or Taiwan.

  10. “There are actually many builders of high quality machine tools in the U.S. I’m not aware of any in China.”

    Possibly your ignorance is feigned. They have their own satellite in orbit and are building a military to rival your own.

    Nah, like Russia, its never what they created, its all stolen from you paragons. ;)

  11. OBH…”1 — I may be mistaken, but I don’t think most watches are mechanical watches any more. The only modern-day mechanical watches I know of are style watches, and they are sold at high prices for caché…”

    You are correct, most watches today are quartz/electronic. I was referring to the watches made prior to this era. You can find price info in old Sears catalogs online, and I’ve also run across some videos & other information about some limited automation used in the assembly process.

  13. re the Intel Ohio plant…planned to cost $20B and employ 3,000 people…Gelsinger has been saying they may have to scale it back or even cancel it if the CHIPS act doesn’t pass in acceptable form.

  14. They would say that wouldn’t they. If they don’t need it, the last thing in the world is for the tax payer to pay for it and if they do need it, they can pay for it themselves. Have any of these boondoggles ever worked out beyond giving politicians something to brag about? Solyndra ring any bells or how about Foxcon? Con is the operative expression.

    Intel, AMD and Nividia may be on the wrong end of the curve. They’re all heavily concentrated on PC’s that aren’t going away any time soon but sure aren’t driving volume.

  15. OBH and David, indeed there are millions of mechanical watches manufactured each year in Switzerland, Japan, Germany, China and even a few in USA, although the movements are generally sourced elsewhere. Rolex is a business titan and enormously profitable, Seiko is huge and innovative with mechanical, quartz, and quartz regulated mechanical Spring Drive movements. The watch enthusiast and collectors community is growing in recent years.

  16. OBloodyHell: we are now in an “IP & Services” economy.

    Aren’t we just! Here’s a data point, to make us cry … or laugh. Remember that female US Navy pilot who did not quite manage to land her F-35 on an aircraft carrier in the South China Sea? The US was very concerned that China would sneak in, recover the crashed plane from the bottom of the ocean, and learn all about top-of-the-line fighter jets. (Like … don’t put under-qualified pilots in the cockpit just because of Diversity-Inclusion-Equity).

    Good news — the US has recovered the jet. It required use of a State of the Art recovery ship. Want to guess where the ship came from?
    https://www.businessinsider.com/chinese-built-ship-to-recover-f35-from-south-china-sea-2022-3

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