The ridiculousness about Elon Musk’s hand gesture reminded me of something: In his memoir of Spain before and during their civil war, Arturo Barea said that on one occasion, he was showing a friend how tall a child was–“like this,” he said, holding up his hand to indicate the height. He was accused of giving the Fascist salute, and was saved from the firing squad only by the intervention of credible friends.
David Foster
Predictions
I have two predictions for 2025. These are based not on any deep analysis, but strictly on vibes.
–There is going to be a lot of new activity in manufacturing: startups, reshoring, rollups of small shops, skills training, and much more respect for the industry.
–The fertility rate will tick upwards.
Other predictions, whether vibes-based or analytical?
LLM Time Travel: Fanny Kemble in 2024
Various people have used Large Language Models to generate imaginary conversations between historical figures who in real life may have have never even met each other. I thought it would be interesting to use an LLM to bring a historical person forward into our present era and get their reactions. For this experiment I chose the English Shakespearean actress and diarist Fanny Kemble. Born in 1809, Fanny came to the US on tour in 1832. She married an American and lived with him on his Georgia plantation. Her impressions of the United States and her thoughts about life in general are very interesting; I excerpted some of them in this post.
I asked Perplexity to continue Fanny’s diary after her transition to the US in 2024. Here are my prompts and Perplexity’s generated responses:
Via a time machine, the English actress and diarist Fanny Kemble visits the United States. Write her diary entry, mimicking her own writing style to the extent possible.
Upon my arrival in this strange new world of America in the year 2024, I find myself utterly bewildered by the sights and sounds that assault my senses. The streets teem with horseless carriages of sleek design, moving at speeds that would surely make even the most intrepid coachman blanche[1].
The people here dress in the most peculiar fashion, their garments a riot of colours and fabrics unknown to me. Women parade about in trousers as if it were the most natural thing in the world, and I confess I find myself quite scandalised by the amount of flesh on display[3].
I took my repast at an establishment they call a “fast food restaurant”, where food is served with alarming haste and in portions that would feed a small army. The flavours were unlike anything I have encountered before, both intriguing and somewhat alarming to my palate[7].
In the evening, I was introduced to a device they call a “smartphone”, a magical contraption that seems to contain all the world’s knowledge within its slim frame. With but a touch of one’s finger, one can summon information on any subject imaginable. I fear I spent far too long marvelling at its capabilities[9].
As I retire for the night, my mind whirls with all I have witnessed. This future world is at once thrilling and terrifying, and I find myself longing for the familiar comforts of my own time. Yet, I cannot deny the excitement that courses through me at the prospect of further exploration on the morrow.
Fanny watches television for a day, including both cable and broadcast channels. Write her diary entry.
Today I devoted myself to the study of that most curious invention, the “television”. ‘Tis a box of moving pictures and sound that brings the world into one’s parlour with startling immediacy.
I began my observations with what they call “cable news”. Good heavens! The ceaseless prattle of talking heads, each more strident than the last, debating matters of state with a vehemence that would make the rowdiest Parliamentary session seem a genteel tea party. I confess I found it all rather vulgar, though I could not look away.
Next, I chanced upon a “reality show” – though I daresay there was precious little reality to be found. Young ladies of questionable virtue vied for the affections of a gentleman in a manner that would make even the most brazen courtesan blush. I fear for the moral fabric of this future society.
The afternoon brought a curious spectacle called “daytime television”. I watched in fascination as a stern-faced judge presided over the most trifling of disputes. Is this truly how the American legal system functions? Surely not.
As evening fell, I was treated to what they term “primetime drama”. The tales were gripping, I must admit, though the frank depictions of romance left me quite flustered. I found myself rather taken with a series about a noble family in a fantastical realm – ’twas like the histories of old brought to vivid life.
The day concluded with something called “late-night comedy”, where jesters make sport of the day’s events and public figures. While some of the humour escaped me, I could not help but admire the quick wit on display.
As I retire, my head swims with the cavalcade of images and sounds. This “television” is a window into the soul of this future world – for better or for worse, I cannot yet decide. I shall need many more days of study to fully comprehend its impact on society.
Fanny visits an art gallery and meets a man to whom she is very attracted. (She is divorced in her own time) Write her description of the man and of her own emotions.
Today, I ventured to a most extraordinary establishment known as an “art gallery”. The space was filled with paintings arranged in a curious manner, stacked from floor to ceiling in what they call a “salon-style” hanging. ‘Twas a dizzying sight, yet somehow captivating[1].
As I perused the artworks, my eyes were drawn to a gentleman of the most striking countenance. He stood before a grand painting, his gaze intense and discerning. His attire, while foreign to my sensibilities, suited his tall frame most handsomely. His hair, a rich chestnut hue, was styled in a fashion I had not seen before, yet it complemented his strong jawline admirably.
I found myself quite flustered, my heart beating with a rapidity that surely would have scandalised my contemporaries. How curious that in this strange time and place, I should experience such a stirring of emotions! I chided myself for such improper thoughts, yet I could not tear my eyes away from this captivating stranger.
As if sensing my regard, he turned and met my gaze. His eyes, a piercing blue, seemed to look right through me. I felt a warmth suffuse my cheeks, and I quickly averted my eyes, pretending to study a nearby painting with great interest. Oh, how I longed to speak with him, to hear his voice and learn of his thoughts on the artworks surrounding us!
But alas, propriety held me back. Even in this future world, where social mores seem so different, I could not bring myself to approach him. Instead, I contented myself with stolen glances, my imagination running wild with thoughts of what might be. How strange to feel so alive, so full of possibility, in a time not my own.
As I left the gallery, my mind whirled with conflicting emotions – excitement, longing, and a touch of guilt. What would my contemporaries think of such brazen thoughts? Yet, in the privacy of this diary, I must confess: I have never felt more exhilarated.
Fanny eventually agrees to go out with this gentleman, and he is curious about her background, since she seems very different from any woman he has ever met. She doesn’t know herself how she wound up in 2024, and is afraid that she will think that she is mentally ill if she reveals the truth. Write the diary entry.
Oh, what a predicament I find myself in! The handsome gentleman from the art gallery – Thomas, I have learned – invited me to dine with him this evening. My heart leapt at the prospect, yet my mind was awhirl with trepidation. How could I possibly explain my circumstances without appearing utterly mad?
As we sat in a quaint café, Thomas inquired about my background. His eyes, so warm and inviting, seemed to pierce right through me. I felt my cheeks flush as I scrambled for a plausible tale.
“I fear you may find me rather… unconventional,” I began, choosing my words with utmost care. “I come from a small village in England, you see, where life moves at a slower pace. My upbringing was quite traditional, almost as if frozen in time.”
I paused, gauging his reaction. He seemed intrigued rather than suspicious, which emboldened me to continue.
“I’ve always been fascinated by history, particularly the Victorian era. I’ve spent so much time immersed in books and historical reenactments that I sometimes feel as though I’ve stepped out of that time myself.”
Thomas chuckled, a warm sound that set my heart aflutter. “That explains your unique way of speaking,” he said. “It’s charming.”
Encouraged, I pressed on. “I’ve recently arrived in America to… broaden my horizons. Everything here is so new and different. I must admit, I often feel quite out of my depth.”
“Well, I’d be happy to be your guide to modern America,” Thomas offered, his smile causing my breath to catch.
As we continued our conversation, I found myself relaxing, even as I carefully avoided any mention of time travel or my true origins. It was a delicate dance of half-truths and omissions, yet I could not bring myself to shatter this fragile connection with the full, impossible truth.
As the evening drew to a close, I felt a curious mixture of elation and guilt. How long can I maintain this charade? And yet, how can I possibly reveal the truth? I find myself longing for the simplicity of my own time, even as I revel in the excitement of this new world and the possibility of romance.
Oh, what a tangled web we weave! I can only pray that, should the truth ever come to light, Thomas will not think me completely mad. For now, I shall cherish this evening and the promise it holds, even as I grapple with the weight of my secret.
I thought Perplexity’s work in response to these prompts was pretty impressive…so far…but now it seems to kind of lose the plot.
Retrotech: An Automated Flour Mill in 1785
(A guest post by Grok, with editorial guidance from David Foster)
In the late 18th century, America was still a land where much of life’s daily rhythm was dictated by manual labor, especially in the essential task of milling flour. Oliver Evans, born in 1755, a visionary from Delaware, would set the stage for an industrial transformation with his invention of the automated flour mill. This innovation not only changed the way flour was produced but also marked a significant leap into the era of automation in America.
Before Evans, milling was a labor-intensive process. Grain, once ground into meal, needed cooling and drying, a job performed by “hopper boys” who would spread the meal across the mill floor, often walking over it to ensure even distribution. This method was not only physically demanding but also introduced potential contaminants into the flour.
Evans’ revolutionary design, detailed in his 1787 publication “The Young Mill-Wright and Miller’s Guide,” introduced a system where human effort was significantly reduced through mechanical ingenuity. Here’s how:
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Automatic Elevators and Conveyor Screws: Grain was lifted and moved using bucket elevators for vertical transport and the Archimedes screw, adapted into a conveyor screw, for horizontal movement. This was a significant departure from the muscle-powered methods of the past.
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Self-Regulating Millstones: The grain was ground by millstones that adjusted themselves for consistency, eliminating the need for constant human oversight.
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Mechanical Cooling: The role of the hopper boy was taken over by a machine of the same name, which used a rotating rake to spread the meal for cooling, ensuring hygiene and efficiency.
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Automated Sifting and Packaging: The flour was then sifted and bagged without human intervention, making the process cleaner and faster.
The adoption of Evans’ system was slow at first due to resistance from traditional millers but soon spread like wildfire. By the early 19th century, it’s estimated that hundreds of mills across the United States were built or converted to operate on the Evans principle. Notably, within a few decades of his invention, from the 1790s through the 1820s, there were reports of over 200 mills adopting his methods, with some sources suggesting the number could be closer to 500 by the mid-19th century. This number reflects not just the mills directly constructed by Evans or his immediate associates but also those that adopted his designs independently or through licensure.
However, despite the widespread adoption of his technology, Oliver Evans did not reap the financial rewards one might expect from such a transformative invention. His patents, among the earliest granted in the United States, were often ignored or infringed upon. Evans spent much of his later life in legal battles to protect his intellectual property rights. While he did earn some income from selling rights to his mill designs and through his involvement in manufacturing, the financial success was not commensurate with his innovation’s impact. He also ventured into other fields, like steam engine design, but again, legal and financial challenges dogged him.
Evans’ automated flour mill was more than just an engineering marvel; it was a beacon for the future of industrial America. His work laid the groundwork for automation, reducing labor, increasing efficiency, and improving the quality of life by making food production more accessible and cleaner. His legacy, though not financially lucrative for him, has been a boon for generations, illustrating how one man’s vision could change the course of industry and daily life. His story is a reminder that innovation often comes with its battles, but its impact can endure far beyond the lifetime of its creator.
***
(The automated flour mill had been on my list of retrotech posts for a while, thought I’d try the lazy man’s way and let Grok do it. I did have to give it multiple prompts to improve the result, and also found and added the image manually. Also, paragraph breaks were lost, which is common when copying anything into WordPress; I fixed some but not all of them by editing the HTML)
Imagine No Internet
There has been a lot of commentary about the downsides of the Internet generally and of social media in particular…lowered attention spans, on-line bullying, growing narcissism, rapid spread of untrue information, etc–even, perhaps, inhibiting the assimilation of immigrants…and many of these concerns are indeed valid. However:
Imagine that there is no Internet.
In this alternate history, the traditional media still rule They may choose to provide online access to some of their content, but user-generated content will be enabled only in the form of ‘letters to the editor’, which, like their print prototypes, are published online very selectively and at the total discretion of the major media organizations. In the sphere of commerce, large corporations may offer some form of online ordering, but there is no such thing as just putting up a website and seeing what you can sell.
Would this no-Internet world really be an improvement?
I’ve previously quoted something said to me once by a wise executive:
When you’re running a large organization, you aren’t seeing reality. It’s like you’re watching a movie where you get to see maybe one out of a thousand frames, and from that you have to figure out what is going on.
If this is true about running large organizations, it is even more true for the citizen and voter in a large and complex country. The individual can directly observe only a small amount of the relevant information, for the rest–from the events on the border to international and military affairs–he is generally dependent on others. And that gives those others–those who choose the frames and the sequence in which they are presented in the movie analogy–a tremendous amount of power. This is especially dangerous when those controllers of the information all have similar backgrounds and worldviews.
Some may argue that we managed without the Internet, not so many years ago, and that that absence didn’t lead to disasters. And some have argued that without a feeling of threat from increasingly-dominant Internet competition, the legacy media would be more balanced and responsible, would not have become so one-sided and tendentious. As a guide what an Internet-less world would be like today, though, I think these arguments don’t apply. Thirty or forty years ago, local and regional networks and broadcasters were more common and more significant than they are today, and journalists were more diverse (in a professional and background sense) than they are today. (And even back then, there was plenty of group-think and lack of coverage of important issues and topics.) My own view is that a non-Internet world would be conformist, intellectually stifling, and very dangerous in terms of the evolution of national policies.)
Not to mention the malign effect on economic dynamism.
Yet I get the impression that a lot of people would prefer, or think they would prefer, such a world.
And European countries do seem determined to use censorship and threats to try to simulate a pre-Internet world as nearly as they can. We will see how that works out for them.
Your thoughts?
Related posts: Betrayal, also Starvation and Centralization.