Another Example of Spin?

Zogby International released a poll of troops serving in Iraq that has become rather controversial. The poll supposedly shows that an overwhelming majority of the troops (72%) think that the US should exit the country within the next year. They also report that only 23% said that the US should stay in country for as long as we are needed.

There are other issues that the poll covers. 93% of the respondents allegedly stated that removing the threat of WMD’s wasn’t sufficient reason for the Iraq invasion, and 68% said that the real reason was to simply depose Saddam. 85% said that the invasion was to punish Saddam for his role in 9/11.

I’m deeply suspicious of this poll for a variety of reasons. The most compelling is that none of the troops I’ve come in contact with have expressed these views. It could very well be that all of the people serving in the military that have spoken to me have a minority opinion, but this seems to stretch probability a bit.

Murdoc Online has been talking about the poll, and he has the same reservations that I do. The money shot is the assertion from Zogby that four out of five of the troops oppose using internationally banned weapons such as napalm and white phosphorus. Murdoc isn’t shy about voicing his opinion on this little nugget, and I agree completely with him.

As a firearm instructor I’ve had many conversations with people serving in the military about weapons that have been banned due to political considerations. Unless there is some compelling reason presented that will change my mind, the statement that the troops agree with these bans looks like a complete fabrication.

Another compelling reason for caution is that this poll seems to align almost perfectly with the Democrat’s talking points in most areas. This looks too good to be true so far as the Dems are concerned, and you know what they say about things that are too good to be true.

Murdoc is still tracking down the particulars, and anyone interested in this issue should check his blog regularly. The main issue now seems to be that it is very difficult to get Zogby to own up to any details about their methodology. You know, which questions were asked and how they were presented. They won’t even tell you if you pony up $20 USD for their big summary. Very strange.

If you are interested in reading what other milbloggers are saying then Glenn has a roundup.

The Muslims we betray through appeasement

There is a report by Hjörtur Gudmundsson in the Brussels Journal based on an article in Jyllands Posten (in Danish) about a new network of Muslims being set up in Denmark, Demokratiske Muslimer (Democratic Muslims).

“About 700 Muslims have already become DM members and 2,500 Danes have expressed their will to support the network. The initiative has caused anger among the Danish imams and their leader, Ahmad Abu Laban, who have referred to the moderates as “rats.” The imams feel that they are beginning to lose their control over part of the Muslim population.”

Take the case of someone like the Iranian refugee Kamran Tahmasebi. He is a social consultant, happy with his life in a western democracy and ready to speak up to warn the Danes against the extremist (and, let’s face it, very ignorant) imams.

“It is an irony that I am today living in a European democratic state and have to fight the same religious fanatics that I fled from in Iran many years ago.”

The leader of Democratic Muslim network is the member of the Danish parliament, Naser Khader, who has been living under police protection for some time.

As Kamran Tahmasebi says:

“Naser Khader has carried this responsibility for too long. I share his beliefs and now I want to stand up and say so. Apart from that, as a parent I feel a responsibility to fight, so that my children will not have to live under Islamist dogmas. They shall be able to live free in this country.”

These are extraordinarily courageous people, who are willing to fight, to risk their lives for what they believe in. What, one wonders, is their attitude to the likes of Jack Straw, Dominic Grieve, Hizonner Ken or the various other scared little bunnies of our political life, who betray us and our democracy as well as the individuals who are willing to stand up to the tyrants in whatever form?

The Danish Prime Minister, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, who has suspended all dialogue on the subject of integration with the various radical imams, is meeting representatives of the Democratic Muslim network today.

Meanwhile, the Committee to Protect Journalists has issued an alarmed report. Three journalists in Yemen and two in Algeria have been arrested for publishing those cartoons, though in a somewhat fuzzy version deliberately, and their newspapers closed down.

“Mohammed Al-Asadi, editor-in-chief of the Yemen Observer, has been detained by the office of the print and media prosecutor in Sana’a, according to the Yemen Observer Web site. Yemen’s chief prosecutor charged al-Asadi with printing materials offensive to the Prophet and told his lawyer that the journalist was being held for his own protection.

Abdulkarim Sabra, managing editor and publisher of Al-Hurriya, and Yehiya al-Abed, a journalist for the paper, were detained over the weekend for publishing the cartoons, according to news reports and CPJ sources. An arrest warrant has been issued for Kamal al-Aalafi, editor-in-chief of the Arabic-language Al-Rai Al-Aam.

The Ministry of Information has revoked the publishing license of all three papers. CPJ sources said the journalists were held under Article 185 of the penal code that allows for detention for seven days, which a court can extend for a further 45 days. Under Yemen’s press law, if the journalists are convicted of offenses against Islam they could be jailed for up to one year. The journalists could face additional charges under the penal code.

In Algeria, authorities closed two weeklies and arrested their editors for printing the drawings on February 2. Kamel Bousaad, editor of pro-Islamist weekly Errissala, and Berkane Bouderbala, managing editor of the weekly Essafir, were detained last week, according to news reports.

The editors face charges under Article 144 of the penal code, which provides for imprisonment of up to five years and heavy fines. The BBC reported that the magazines have been critical of the Danish drawings and printed them to explain why they had sparked outrage in the Muslim world. The drawings were deliberately fogged. According to BBC, the two Arabic language magazines have moderate pro-Islamist views and print only a few thousand copies a week.”

Oh well, that’s all right then. Only a few thousand copies. Who is going to notice their absence? I am surprised the BBC, whose website managed to refer to one of the fake pictures as being an original Danish cartoon, even bothered to mention it.

But this is serious for anyone who believes in freedom and free expression. So far as we know these journalists are no worse or better Muslims than anyone else. They do, however, seem to believe that newspapers should be allowed to report on stories and, also, that Islam will not be destroyed or undermined by a dozen or more cartoons any more than it was destroyed or undermined by Persian miniatures or medallions worn by the Janissaries.

Cross-posted from EUReferendum

The curse of the tranzis

There was a brief report on the BBC about a call for a common European position issued by a French member of the Assemblée on the Danish cartoons and subsequent events. There is, of course, a problem with a common position: you need to define it before you can pronounce it. The truth is that, as usual at times of crisis, the European Union and its member states are in complete disarray.

The Danish government has, famously, refused to sanction the newspaper in question. Some politicians have spoken up for freedom of speech. Others, like our own Foreign Secretary, has shown himself to be on the side of censorship and tyranny (another dog bites man story).

Then l’escroc Chirac has waded in to condemn “all manifest provocation that might dangerously fan passions”.

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Who else is involved?

To stiffen the sinews and add purpose to my existence I have been re-reading John Buchan’s novels. (Actually, they often make one feel tired and inadequate, but let that pass.)

Aficionados will recall that most of the novels (and my own favourites are the Hannay and Leithen series) have somewhere near the beginning a discussion of a random set of events that somehow fit together into a sinister pattern. Almost always behind those events there is a person or a group of people manipulating those who think they are acting on their own.

The reason these plots do not become stupid and tiresome conspiracy theories is because Buchan, a man who knew politics from personal experience, always understood that there were many other unforeseeable events happening as well and even the smartest conspirators could not count on everything to develop as planned.

I am not for one moment suggesting that there is a world-wide conspiracy behind the War of the Danish Cartoons. But clearly there are different forces at work.

Demonstrations of this kind, whether it is a march with prepared placards from the Regent’s Park mosque to the Danish Embassy (a long way, incidentally, in London) or crowds bused from all parts of Beirut and outside it to burn the embassies, have to be planned, financed and organized. Spontaneous demonstrations always fizzle out.

So, let’s go through some of the groups and people who might be doing some organizing. No question but Iran is dabbling in it somewhere, though interestingly, the mullahs opted not to have demonstrations in the country itself until today when they went for the Austrian embassy. Now that is very interesting, as few people know even inside the EU, let alone outside it, that Austria holds the rotating presidency. Then the Danish embassy was attacked.

Baby Assad got his lot together, first in Damascus then in Beirut (yes, I know the Syrians have formally left Lebanon but their agents go marching on). Could it be yet another effort on his part to delay his coming demise (political or otherwise)? Another civil war in Lebanon would be enormously useful to him.

Riots in Gaza where the Al-Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigade is anxious not to be seen as wimps, while Hamas is ready to turn attention away from the still uncleared rubbish in the localities where they won elections some time ago. Apart from that, demonstrations in some countries like Pakistan and Indonesia but not very big ones. A peaceful demonstration in Cairo and, more recently riots, almost certainly stirred up by the Taliban, in Afghanistan.

Saudi Arabia might be promoting the boycott but there are no riots in the country itself. Nor in various other Arab countries, despite the growing need to turn attention away from such enormous events as the annual stampede during the Hajj to Mecca, which always seems to result in several hundred dead and the more recent ferry disaster in the Red Sea. Over 1,000 people seem to have died while the captain and officers managed to escape.

Outside the Middle East, in one place only: London, which is interesting as Britain has not been in the vanguard of defiance or support for free speech. Are we now seen as a soft touch by all those groups of Islamicists? Is the name Londonistan better deserved than we realized? I ask merely because I want to know.

There is, however, another aspect to the London demonstrations that has not, so far as I know, been noted by anyone. The placards, presumably handed out at the Mosque on Friday and carried down to Sloane Street, all seem to have been written by one hand.

That would not be a problem by itself. But I suggest close attention to what is said on them. These are not placards written by people whose second language is English, who are not educated or unable to put sentences together and can only rage impotently.

The words, the slogans, the sentences are all carefully written by someone who is English or has lived here all his life (I doubt it was a woman) and someone well educated. Words like “annihilate”, “behead”, “holocaust”, “massacre” are not easy to spell.

Slogans like “Europe is the cancer, Islam is the answer” do not come from the Koran or the teachings of the average imam. Or what of this: “Europe you will pay, Fantastic 4 are on their way”?

One of the interesting aspects of the big demo organized by the Coalition Against the War was the complete uniformity of the placards and notices carried and stuck on lamp-posts. Furthermore, they were exactly like the placards and notices of the Socialist Workers’ Party. It took some journalists a little time to find the various connections but eventually they did. However, one look at those posters would have given them the clue.

I am not suggesting that there is a Black Stone or a Powerhouse behind all this, much less a brilliant German agent of the kind who gives Hannay a bad time in two out of the five novels.

But I would strongly suggest that some English organization (or just an individual, though that is unlikely) has become involved in the London protests, seeing in them a possibility for mayhem.

There is, of course, another explanation and that would fit in with Buchan’s plots. There may be a maverick somewhere in the various intelligence and security services, who, tired of official inaction in the face of great danger, has decided to provoke public opinion, leaving the politicians and guardians of the law (stop laughing at the back) with no choice but to act. (We wish.)

That may be a daydream but it is a very pleasant one. Sadly, I think the first explanation may be nearer the truth. But I am guessing.

Cross-posted (mostly) from EUReferendum

Shock wave or, maybe, not

As all the world knows, Hamas has done better in the Palestinian elections than expected, pulling ahead of Fatah. Understandably, this has caused a great deal of commentary.

The BBC called it a “stunning victory”, going so far as to describe Hamas as Islamic, a term they tend to omit when writing about suicide/homicide bombings. With slightly more understanding, perhaps, Deutsche Welle referred to a “shocking victory”.

The Guardian wrote of it as a “shock victory” but it would, perhaps, be more of a shock to people who have been publicly proclaiming that the so-called peace process was stalled repeatedly solely because of Israel’s supposed intransigeance.

All the news services have been quoting various people, some named, some anonymous or semi-anonymous, in Arab countries, who were rejoicing in what they saw a victory to the people who had given their blood (and other people’s, of course). All of these are countries and people who are prepared to fight for the cause to the last drop of Palestinian blood and why the Palestinians allow themselves to be manipulated in this way has always been a mystery to me.

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