Shannon Love

Envelope Backs

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From watching the news one could safely assume that Iraq is a nation up in arms and that the situation is spiraling out of control. One could assume from continuing Coalition causalities that opposition to the Coalition is widespread and popular.

How can we test that idea? Well, we could try a few back-of-the-envelope type calculations to try to get at least a sense of the magnitude of the problem.

Iraq is a nation of roughly 25,000,000 (twenty-five million)

If 1% of the population was willing to take up arm against the Coalition, that would mean an active insurgency of 250,000 (two hundred fifty thousand). That’s roughly 1.5 insurgents for every Coalition soldier in-country.

If 1% of those insurgents attacked the Coalition on any given day it would mean that 2,500 (twenty-five hundred) insurgents would be attacking every day.

If 1% of those insurgents managed to kill a Coalition soldier, that would mean Coalitions causalities would run at a rate of 25 (twenty-five) dead a day.

The Coalition actually loses around 3 killed per day.

Working from above backwards, that implies that the number of insurgents attacking Coalition per day is around 300 (three hundred).

That implies that the total active insurgency is comprised of 30,000 (thirty thousand) individuals.

(That’s an upper bound by the way)

That means that the percentage of the Iraqi population actively resisting the Coalition is somewhere around 0.12%

Wow, were obviously doomed. Time to throw in the towel I say.

Dotcom Democrats

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The Democratic Party has been losing political power slowly but surely for the last 30 years. Arguably they have not won a straight out Presidential election since 1964. Carter won because of Watergate, Clinton won because of Perot. In the Congress, Governorships and elsewhere there has been a steady and constant erosion of power as they have lost election after election.

Democrats convince themselves they lose due to Republican dirty tricks? After all, everybody agrees with them on the issues don’t they? Well, yes and no.

It’s the “No” they won’t recognize and its killing them.

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The Paranoid Left

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(Note: Reason seems to be having server problems, again)

Over on Hit and Run, Nick Gillespie points to an article on Slate about Lewis H. Lapham defense of his analysis of the Republican convension he wrote and published before the convention occurred.

One bit drew my attention:

“The paranoid-reductionist formula goes like this: People connected by money, greed, and ideology are building institutions to foist their self-centered agendas and corrupt ideas on the easily hoodwinked masses. These people are so unscrupulous and cunning that they’re willing to present the most outrageous untruths as fact.”

I have noted a generalized paranoid and conspiratorial tone on the part of the Left in many areas. It’s gotten so bad that I think that even Kerry gives off this creepy Nixon vibe.

Where does this paranoia come from?

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