Month: March 2003

It’s interesting to watch polite, articulate, well groomed military officers field questions from slovenly reporters who look and sound like college students after an all-nighter. Clearly, some of the best people in our society have chosen military careers. With rare exceptions, the same cannot be said of journalism.

Worry not, Lex. I don’t think the anti-war demonstrators are helping their own cause. If anything they are antagonizing the many Americans who are inclined to support our government while our troops are in harm’s way.

The loony-lefties who drive the demos probably think they are positioning themselves to ride any wave of popular anti-war sentiment that develops in response to war setbacks. I think it’s more likely that the inevitable setbacks will increase popular determination to see the war through, and that many Americans will blame the antis for encouraging and even aiding our enemies. This isn’t Vietnam, where there were widespread doubts both about our tactics and our reasons for being at war. (It isn’t Algeria, either, Jacques.) The case for war against the Iraqi regime is clear. The case for finishing the job — after the first Gulf War and endless resolutions and sanctions didn’t — ought to be clear to anyone who isn’t blind.

We’ll win, and I don’t think it will be as difficult at you fear. Iraq isn’t 1940s Japan, the hard core of Hussein’s supporters isn’t likely to resist indefinitely. Those who aren’t soon killed or captured face an inevitable choice between 1) certain death in battle, 2) surrendering to U.S. troops and probably surviving, 3) being killed by other Iraqis, and 4) trying to escape while there’s still time. How many will choose death as opposed to some variant of surrendering or escaping? My guess is that an increasing number of them will, in one way or another, stop fighting as our victory becomes increasingly certain.

International hostility? We ought to be used to it by now, and it doesn’t seem to be slowing us down. The only thing that can stop us is if we lose our nerve, and I don’t think that will happen.

Pardon me a non-war post.

My lovely wife and I went to see the fabulous Eyeliners last night at the run-down but lovable Fireside Bowl. (See this earlier post.)

Lisa, Laura and Gel were in excellent form, though their vocals were mixed way too low for the first few songs. Lots of pep, great songs, great stage presence. The crowd was the usual mix of mostly teenagers and a few old fogeys. The Eyeliners closed with Blitzkreig Bop. Hey, Ho! Let’s Go! The Ramones will never really die, baby. We bought the new cd, which I very strongly recommend. Not one bad song on it. (I also got this super cool punk rock t-shirt.)

There are still a few shows left on this tour, heading West. So check ’em out.

As I suspected, all is clear as mud at this point. Yeah, the coalition is rolling in. Yeah, some Iraqis are surrendering, some are not, some are fighting in civilian clothes, some are faking surrenders and then shooting a la Japanese practice in WWII. Some of the places in Iraq our soldiers are being cheered as liberators, some, apparently, not.

Not owning a TV is helpful in situations like this. The noise to signal ratio is astronomical. I don’t need to see the same visual images 70 or 100 times. That adds nothing to my comprehension or analysis of what is going on.

The only noteworthy items I can cull so far from the blizzard of “news” are (1) the Iraqis are apparently torturing and/or executing captured troops, and (2) Chirac is still going on about the “illegal” war and insisting that the U.N. run Iraq after the war. The first, if true, is absolutely terrible. But, it is not surprising. That is their ordinary way to treat people whom they have in custody. But it is really stupid. They think we are weak, cowardly people who will be intimidated and scared off by their mistreatment of our prisoners. But all it will do is make ordinary Americans really, really mad. I am sure our leftists and “peace” protesters will be sympathetic to the torturers, and say that they have been driven mad by Bush’s aggression, so their atrocities are “society’s fault.” But no one else will think like that. On point two, NRO’s corner had a post about French people jeering at the photos of dead Americans. Laugh now, laugh now. We will neither forgive nor forget. Which leads me to Chirac. It is remarkable that he is persevering in his opposition. I think he is scared shitless about the way this is working out. Good. That man is the enemy. His government is the enemy. I hope our government acts accordingly as soon as opportunity permits.

Several European friends are all sending me emails indicationg their disgust with Bush, etc. It seems the whole world is against Uncle Sam on this one. This realization caused me to pause and reflect, and I reached the conclusion that the many well-intentioned and thoughtful people who oppose the war are entitled to some sense that those of us who support the war have tried to understand their feelings and have taken their concerns seriously. Upon further reflection, I concluded that the best way to share my own feelings was to offer all such people what is deepest in my heart at this moment — a nice big Jacksonian “fuck you.”

Here’s my prediction for the next week based on almost nothing: This thing is not going to be anything like painless. There will be hard fighting. Many in Iraq are going to lose everything when Saddam goes, so they have nothing to lose. They’ll fight to the death. So, the sooner our people kill such people, the better off we’ll all be. But it won’t be easy.

Then, much painful work will remain to be done, in an atmosphere of severe international hostility. Bush is going to have a tough time. But, hey, he wanted this job. Go get ’em, tiger.

Here is a thought a little ahead of time. The anti-war crowd is extremely well-organized, networked, and effective. They are actually putting on larger and larger demos. When our troops come home, the people who backed the war will have to do a better job of organizing demonstrations and getting people onto the street. Otherwise, there is going to be nothing waiting for the returning troops but crowds three ranks deep shouting “murderer,” and a hail of flying spit from the anti-war crowd.

Let’s not let that happen.

The market-determined odds for the removal of Saddam Hussein from power by the end of March were last quoted at around 78% (and may be higher by the time you read this), an increase of about fifty percentage points in the past couple of days. Markets don’t always evaluate probabilities accurately, but they tend to provide the best available estimates, and they adjust rapidly as new information becomes available.