Dudes, I just noticed that Anna’s Bunny Blog is back up and running — since last month. Good stuff, and I missed the war stuff so much I almost missed the bunnies, too. And I’m just not a bunny kind of guy.
She’s got a good post about the Chinese putting a man into space: “Communists in space again? Oh great. ” But she concludes on a happy note, pointing out that Arsenal of Democracy — or AoD in her usual parlance — “the AoD owns space and can bring down whatever the enemy may send up.”
Yeah, I knew that. I wrote a post last night which I didn’t put up because it was way too ranting and angry and negative. See, I care about our readers’ feelings. I don’t always post every darn thing that I dredge out of my id.
In my first version of the post I said I wanted the Chicom astronaut to die. Kinda harsh. I don’t so much want him to die as I want the Chinese communists’ space program to fail. So, unlike Glenn Reynolds, I don’t wish them well. Bottom line, China is our long-term enemy. I think this space effort is them laying the foundation for a challenge to our control of space. (See the fascinating essay “Unrestricted Warfare” — part 1 here and part 2 here.) Nothing personal. If I were the Chinese, that’s what I’d be doing. They want to control their region, which means we have to leave. And we won’t leave if we are asked nicely, so they are going to push us. That’s how it is going to go. Stripping away our command of space is something they are working on doing. And they are very, very smart people. And they are very serious about beating us when they take us on, a process which is already underway.
This space launch isn’t the United Federation of Planets, a peaceful joint exploration of the natural wonders of unknown space. It is the instruments warming up in the orchestra pit before the curtain rises on Cold War II.
John B. Alexander‘s book Winning the War: Advanced Weapons, Strategies, and Concepts for the Post-9/11 World has got me all fired up about the need to control space. He predicts that there is going to be a collapse in the cost of getting into space and working there, and that market forces will drive this process in the near future. This will change the parameters, and be a threat to our current ascendency in the military use of space.
My wish list looks like this. I want the U.S. to invest massively in militarizing space. I want us to tear up any treaty that purports to block our doing so. I want us to deny the use of space to our enemies, including France and China. I want us to establish a permanent military presence, manned and unmanned, on the moon and at the LaGrange points. Space is the military high ground of the present and future. I want us to seize, hold and control it, and deny it completely and permanently to all enemies actual and potential.
I am glad that Anna is confident that we can do this if we need to. I’m worried that we will fail to invest, now, during the inter-war period. It will be a lot harder to take the high ground back by force at some later date. For now, I will take her word for it that the AoD can handle any challengers. I sure hope she’s right.
Good post.
James
Fucking disgusing American
You are enving Chinese success!!!
And now our space activity is very great!!!
hahahaha!!
your curse for Chinese is failing!!!
And American never can’nt hinder China power!!
China is growing up and USA is degrading!!!
Fucking self-conceit American!!!!
Cool comment from “Chinese”. If it is a joke, it’s kinda funny.
If it is real, it strengthens all my most paranoid fantasies.
It’s funny either way, I think.
And somehow, I don’t think the Chinese regime will survive long enough to see through the scenario you imagine.
As you say, they are smart people. So by the time they catch up in their space program, they probably won’t be communists either.
I also found your comment that you wanted the Chinese astronaut to die both repulsive and disgusting – and I work on the American space program!
I don’t feel quite as threatened by the Chinese as you do. In fact, having followed this subject for many years, I don’t think we should feel threatened at all. Why? For two reasons:
1. China is evolving, and very quickly too. Since they’ve dropped their Marxist/Maoist/Collectivist economic policies and adopted a more market driven and capitalistic approach to trade and development, their economy has grown at a phenomenal rate and close to 300 million (that’s 300,000,000) people have been raised out of poverty. That’s a good thing no matter how you cut it. The communist party is still in control politically but is also evolving to a more pluralistic and representative form of government. It’d be nice to see to it progress a little more quickly, but it is happening. That’s a good thing too, for the Chinese and the world.
2. China needs to do well. 1/2 of all the humans in the world live in Asia and 1/2 of all Asians are Chinese. Think about that. The Chinese represent 1/4 of all humanity. I want them to succeed. I think we all should.
I want to congratulate the Chinese on a great accomplishment. I wish them the very best. That was a remarkable accomplishment. Job well done!!
;)
Michael,
If you had read Lex’s post more closely you would have seen that he thought better about wishing bad luck on the Chinese astronaut, and instead merely wished it on the Chinese space program.
I think that we can all agree that China is an important nation, one with great potential, that is growing rapidly. That’s good, and I wish (as I’m sure does Lex) the Chinese people all the best. But for the time being they are ruled by a clique of elderly communists who show no inclination to relinquish power. These rulers have behaved in a manner ranging from cold to hostile toward the U.S., and have made clear that they regard us as a strategic competitor. They have been eager to appropriate our bomb and missile technology when they could get away with it. We would be prudent not to be cavalier about technological advances that could strengthen their offensive miltary ability. However much it may please us to believe that the Chinese government is in the game mainly to explore the heavens, we shouldn’t forget the military origins of our and the Russian space programs. Why would a totalitarian gang whose first motive is to retain power expend such a big pile of resources on a program that didn’t have military applications?
The Chinese regime is in an existential pickle, as I discussed in this post. They’re going to resist real reform for as long as they can, because reform means they’ll lose power. As long as they’re around we should treat them with caution, be alert to their military capabilities, and not make overly optimistic assumptions about their motives.
I hope that China will evolve into an open society in the near future. However, until that happens it will remain a matter of basic prudence — and one that does not in any way show disrespect for the Chinese people — for us to be wary of the Chinese communist regime’s military capabilities.
What Jonathan said.
Yeah, wanting the guy to die was a momentary thought, which I too decided was disgusting and wrong. But, hey, this is a blog, I share all, even the nasty thoughts which occur to me. Total openness, like on Oprah or Jerry Springer.
This from Michael: “The communist party is still in control politically but is also evolving to a more pluralistic and representative form of government. It’d be nice to see to it progress a little more quickly, but it is happening. That’s a good thing too, for the Chinese and the world.”
I hope so. We’ll see. I don’t think we are going to see representative government there any time soon, maybe ever. The leadership want to (1) develop the country, make it rich, and (2) maintain control for themselves and their families — and (3) they will use nationalistic sentiment to maintain legitimacy. Moreover, the military is an interest group which must be placated, and it is very hardnosed, especially about Taiwan.
This is all a prescription for serious trouble.
I have a question for someone, if they would help me out. It seems to me I remember, during the Clinton administration, a big brouhaha about selling supercomputers and missile technology to China. How much of this has figured into the current Chinese space success? And if it does figure into it, does it not make sense to think the prior controls on exports of technology would be tightened up again?