Conservative-blogger triumphalism about Bush’s most recent debate performance ignores warnings from the Intrade and Iowa online political futures markets, which show the presidential race tightening. I hate to write this, because I want Bush to win and until recently I thought he would probably win in a landslide. Now I’m less confident.
Tom Smith has some interesting speculations here and here about why Bush’s re-election odds seem to have slipped. He thinks that forthrightly moralistic anti-abortion talk alienates liberal swing-voters. Could be. Unfortunately, we are not likely to know for sure until well after the election.
Bush’s fortunes may rebound, he may win big, and anyway I do not think that he should compromise his strongly-held positions to appeal to marginal voters. But I would feel more comfortable if his numbers were higher.