It says something about the boringness of what feels like the longest election campaign in British history that this morning’s news of the light airplane crash that injured Nigel Farage, former leader of UKIP and now parliamentary candidate in Buckingham, standing against Mr Speaker Bercow, was its only interesting item. Apparently, both Mr Farage and the pilot are doing well in two separate hospitals, so the news is not as tragic as it could have been. Apart from that, there really is nothing of any interest one can say about the election campaigns as conducted by the three main parties. There are a few things to be said about the election itself and the political situation in which this country has found itself.
Let us be clear: this is not the most earth-shatteringly important election in British history. Yes, it would be good to get rid of the dysfunctional Labour government that has brought us to the pass we are at but the alternative, David Cameron’s “new” Conservatives do not inspire one with any confidence. The party’s promise to reduce the shockingly high government deficit (almost as high as the Greek one) followed swiftly by numerous promises to spend more money on various projects makes one feel that there is a shortage of people who can do basic maths among the Conservatives. The refusal on the part of the three main parties (apart from the occasional admission by the Lib-Dems) even to discuss the control the European Union exerts over this country’s political and economic life has dismayed many people and not just who are known to be eurosceptics. There is a confused understanding in many people’s minds that it really does not matter who we vote for and that is not something the three main parties like. In particular, the Conservatives, who have been attempting to capture the eurosceptic position (as they had managed to capture and pre-empt any possible tea-party movement in this country) are unhappy. Their campaign has become more and more hyperbolical over the weeks, till it looks positively apocalyptic: if we do not vote for them the Four Horsemen will surely arrive.
The general impression of the last few weeks (once it really was election time and not just the Conservative demanding for no reason whatsoever that an early election be called by the Prime Minister) is that there was very little interest among the voting public and the less interest there was the more hysterical the media and the politicians became. The somewhat ridiculous story of Gordon Brown calling Gillian Duffy a bigot when he thought the mike had been switched off produced larger, blacker, more frenzied headlines than the German invasion of Poland had done in 1939. (I know this, because my friend and colleague, Richard North of EUReferendum compared the two.) Despite the apathetic attitude to the election campaign, anecdotal evidence (there are still several hours of polling to go) says that the turn-out might be quite high. My own anecdotal evidence proves nothing: there were a couple of people in the polling station when I went in and a couple more came in as I was going out. That is about par for the course.
The big question is how have the Conservatives found themselves in this position. This, after all, was the election that they could not lose: 13 years of Labour government, a severe economic crisis, a completely dysfunctional government, a country that is at odds with itself. The Opposition should have walked into office. Yet, even a year ago they could not manage more than a 14 point lead over Labour and that is not big enough. Since November, when David Cameron reneged on his “cast-iron guarantee” to hold a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty a.k.a. a Constitution for Europe, the gap has narrowed dramatically and nothing the Conservatives have done shifted the basic division, whereby opinion polls gave them a consistent support of 35 to 38 per cent, Labour somewhere around 25 and 28 per cent and the Lib-Dems, astonishingly enough and this, too, can be placed at David Cameron’s door, an almost equal percentage. Whichever way one looks at it, every poll showed 12 per cent or more of those asked not supporting any of the three main parties.
I shall have to impose on Chicagoboyz readers some more in my analysis of the British election that will have to be in further postings.
12 thoughts on “Nothing much to report”
The last couple of times I have been in England, I was struck by the loss of history in so many of the ordinary people. I vaguely remember some figure on how many school children recognized the name of Churchill, let alone King Henry V. This was two years ago. Maybe my opinion is swayed by reading Theodore Dalrymple’s books and essays. I wonder how this affects the election. Cameron seems to think it does. I hope Margaret Thatcher has mercifully lost her awareness of what has come about.
Hey,Dave,the idea is you kick the ball into the opposition’s goal,not your own.
Thanks for the report, Helen.
Well, here’s a bright spot. George Galloway went down in flames.
I believe that you hit the correct button when describing Cameron’s failure to follow through on his ‘Referendum for the E.U.’ promise, mainly because it lumped the Tories together with the Labour bunch, who everybody cordially detests as a bunch of liars, and the Lib-Dems, who are seen not only as sandal-wearing nutcases, but liars to boot.
The modern Tory Party do not compare to the old style, such as when Margaret Thatcher was leader. Cameron represents a Tory Politician who has learned too well the words of a French Revolutionary leader who stated “I must find out where my people are going so I may lead them”, in other words, if the wind blows from another side, he is ready to tack the vessel to accommodate that change in the wind.
I have no trust in him, or his fellow compatriots of all Parties, for they have all sold us into the chains of the European Union, from which there is no escape!
All it takes to escape is leadership by someone with a pair. That will happen eventually.
Cameron is negotiating with Gregg which seems to me the worst of all possible worlds.
That was supposed to say Clegg but my fingers ran away with me.
I watched the third debate on C-SPAN (the Manchester one.)
Honestly, I was left a bit nonplussed by the whole thing. And how awful a candidate do you have to be in order not to win handily when a leader like Brown is disliked so much? No disrespect to Cameron, but that was my initial impressionistic across-the-pond-from-you-all take on it. Yikes!
And now it seems that Labor and the Lib-Dems are in negotiations to form a coalition of the losers. Whatever demands Cameron was making on Clegg, they were apparently too much. If they come to agreement, things should get very interesting in the UK indeed.
One of the many things people do not seem to realize is that we do not vote for the Prime Minister and nobody knows exactly to what extent party leaders influence people’s behaviour. We actually vote for our MP and that is why there have been curious local patterns. Once there is a new government, I shall report back on what is happening but, in the meantime, I can assure everyone that a hung parliament did not bring about the country’s collapse and the markets have reacted more to the Greek bail-out than to the British elections. The media and the politicians got it wrong.
“One of the many things people do not seem to realize is that we do not vote for the Prime Minister and nobody knows exactly to what extent party leaders influence people’s behaviour.”
I know that you don’t vote for the Prime Minister, but for some reason I thought the quality of leadership might be reflected by vote for the particular party?
But I don’t understand the Parliamentary system very well, as my comments likely show.
Thanks for the educating posts and comments!
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