Just want to get my election predictions on record.
I think Bush will win with in excess of 52% of the popular vote and in excess of 300 electoral votes.
The scope of the victory may be just wishful thinking on my part. I want whomever wins to win big so we don’t have some kind of lawyer-driven nightmare that could permanently cripple our democracy. I also want the Democrats to lose big so that, just maybe, they will launch some kind of internal reform that will make them once again the forward looking, new-idea party instead of the leftist reactionaries they are today. I also believe that a resounding Bush victory will save hundreds of lives in Iraq and elsewhere.
I think an unexpectedly strong Bush showing may happen because of the tenor of the basic theme of each candidate. Bush’s implied vision of America is an optimistic vision of a nation that is powerful, morally capable and engaged in a heroic struggle for the betterment of humanity. Kerry’s implied vision of America is a pessimistic vision of a nation that is weak, immoral, incapable and engaged in a venal exercise in mass murder. Which vision will voters want to embrace in the privacy of the voting booth?
In essence, this election is less between two individuals than it is between these two conflicting visions of America, for which the individuals are mere proxies. Historically, Americans have chosen the optimistic vision and have done so strongly.
Let us hope they do so again.
Amen.
At worst, this election ought to allay the fears of the rumor mongers who spent most of the summer keening about how Rovebbels was going to cancel it.
Been watching InTrade quite steadily for the past few days – and the market just might be telling us that this puppy’s heading for overtime. And that would suck – a definitive victory by either party would not be a bad thing.
Just wish there were more pro-Kerry rather than anti-W voters
One thing’s fairly certain: The sun will rise in the east come Wednesday and I am hopeful we can begin to put this behind us – for at least a few months…..
Maybe the democrats should call themselves “The New Conservatives” When Bush is… ?? What is he really? A Napoleon? A Big government fan?
Evrything is possible..tomorrow
I am also fearful of the lawyers. After all, the suits have already started in what, four states? The Florida absentee ballot mailing problem, the definition of where a provisional voter can vote in Ohio and Michigan, the overseas voter problem in Pennsylvania. And that’s not to mention the retroactive Colorado referendum, which the Dems will certainly contest if they don’t win the state.
May Allah grant us swift and sure victory. If not, John Edwards wins, even if he doesn’t.
Matya no baka
My guess: Bush 51% Kerry 48% Nader 1%
Bush between 280 and 300 electoral votes.
Some ancillary predictions:
Bush wins-Dow up between 50 and 200 for a couple days, then back to sub-10,000 Undecided outcome Wednesday morning-Dow down 200
Kerry wins-Dow down 500, headed for 8000
sell…sell!!!! …That is as soon as you can if kerry wins ;). I love scottrade…
I hope Shannon is right. Bush respects us – thinks we are up for the long haul, we understand there’s no free lunch – cliches but better ones than those Kerry is selling.
The problem (and this experience came from my life in South Chicago in 1968-9) is that Democrats seem more likely to vote often than Republicans.
(Does anyone else find it ironic that the party that for years did race-baiting in the South to deny African-Americans the right to vote Republican are now doing race-baiting to get rid of poll watchers, etc. so that Republican votes will be nullified by illegal vote fraud?)
Bob Kerrey was on O’Reilley tonight (yes, O’Reilley is a blowhard; but it isn’t a bad show to watch on the treadmill). Anyway, I like him – it’s a tribal thing. A) He wasn’t willing to say Kerry was going to win – give him marks for honesty and besides it cheered me; B) he said if Kerry didn’t win and the margin was close, he’d advise him to throw the towel in–it would be best for the country. (I don’t think John Kerry asks Bob Kerrey for advice – mores the pity.) O’Reilley said he figured Bush would do tbat if that if he lost by a hair. (As I remember, he didn’t challenge but only fought for what was officially his? Am I remembering correctly?) Anyway, blowhard or not, I think they were right: the country would be better off if this didn’t go to the courts. But has anyone seen a lawyer (well, anyone) turn away from these kinds of fees and publicity? (It would tempt me.)
I hope Shannon is right. Bush respects us – thinks we are up for the long haul and understand there’s no free lunch; he suspects most of us are right most of the time; thinks we are a pack that chooses retirement plans and health care rather than a herd – cliches but better ones than those Kerry is selling.
The problem (and this perhaps unwarranted suspicion comes from my life in South Chicago in 1968-9 when some precincts seemed to come in suspiciously late) is that Democrats vote more often than Republicans.
Does anyone else find it ironic that the party that for years did race-baiting in the South to deny African-Americans the right to vote Republican are now doing race-baiting to get rid of poll watchers, etc. so that Republican votes will be nullified by vote fraud? (Snark moment)
Bob Kerrey was on O’Reilley tonight (yes, O’Reilley is a blowhard; it isn’t a bad show to watch on the treadmill). Anyway, I like Kerrey – it’s a tribal thing. A) He wasn’t willing to say Kerry was going to win – give him marks for honesty and besides it cheered me; B) he said if Kerry didn’t win and the margin was close, he’d advise him to walk away from it – that would be best for the country. (I don’t think John Kerry asks Bob Kerrey for advice – mores the pity.) O’Reilley said he figured Bush would do tbat if he lost by a hair. (As I remember, Bush didn’t challenge results but only fought to retain them. Am I remembering correctly?)
Anyway, blowhard or not, I think they were right: the country would be better off if this didn’t go to the courts. But has anyone seen a lawyer (well, anyone) turn away from these kinds of fees and publicity? (It would tempt me.)
I am neither American nor, therefore, a voter, and I live far away and merely observe what is going on [more keenly this time than ever before].
I think you captured the candidates’ projection of optimism and pessimism about right, and this is what it may all boil down to for those who are still undecided [most of whom I imagine to be decent, ordinary folk of all ages who will put character above policies].
My forecast is Bush-Cheney 52.5, Kerry-Edwards 46 and Nader/others 1.5, with a 296/241 electoral college win for the incumbent.
Surely no matter who is the winner the sky will not fall in on November 3rd, but, that said, for all our sakes I hope America’s voters retain the 43rd president for four more years.
Then all you have to fear is Hillary in ’08.
Oh I totally have to add my prediction here too!!
Kerry 311
Bush 226
Happy voting everyone! Can’t wait to see how this all shakes out!
*I also want the Democrats to lose big so that, just maybe, they will launch some kind of internal reform that will make them once again the forward looking, new-idea party instead of the leftist reactionaries they are today.*
Yes. Yes. YES. Please, Dear God, make it so.
— disgruntled Clintonite (who voted the Republican ticket today)
I think blowout as well, Bush 58%, Kerry 41%, Nader 1%.