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  • The Fog of Politics

    Posted by Jonathan on November 2nd, 2004 (All posts by )

    Wild. Exit poll results are being leaked, or manufactured to boost morale, or a combination. It’s like watching a volatile futures market near expiration. Intrade’s Bush-reelect numbers are all over the place, on huge volume. I don’t believe most of what I’m reading. This is already a very interesting election, if only because so much more information is being broadcast in almost-real-time than ever before. Except that a lot of this information is undoubtedly wrong.

    This situation is like the “fog of war.” There is always uncertainty about fast-moving events, and technological improvements don’t necessary improve information availability. What the tech improvements do is compress the uncertainty in time and shift it into areas where, in the past, nobody expected timely information (e.g., those exit polls).

    Stay tuned. (But of course we all will.)

     

    6 Responses to “The Fog of Politics”

    1. Jon Says:

      The IEM is showing very heavy action for Kerry – aggregate ~ 70% at 4:30 cst…..Tradesports EV map 311-224 Kerry….can’t see InTrade at *all* – serious server action today…..

      Oh well. Here’s hoping, assuming the markets are correct, that Kerry has more to offer than mere criticism.

      Sigh

    2. incognito Says:

      Funny how early exit polls show Kerry leading. Who votes during the day? Mostly people who don’t work…

    3. Jon Says:

      Ah come on….we save the trashing of the Kerry admin and supporters for at least a couple of hours…..

      But – if what you say is true – that bodes ill for W and the “suburban security mom” vote…..

    4. Jonathan Says:

      I don’t have a clue. Maybe Kerry will win, and if so I hope that he will rise to the occasion. But it isn’t over yet.

    5. MatyaNoBaka Says:

      Jon – Anecdotally, an awful lot of people around me voted before they came in this morning. Being near NYC, they seem to be mostly Kerry folk. But it was early enough i doubt there were many serious exit pollsters awake yet.

      Matya no baka

    6. Jon Says:

      Matya

      Thanks for the info – apparently lots of late voters in Ohio, Florida and Penn….

      Here in Wisconsin, the polls opened to very large lines – lots of people bypassed and left work early to vote on their way home.