Q: How do we know for absolute certain that the C.I.A. had nothing to do with the assassination of John F. Kennedy?
A: He’s dead isn’t he?
The CIA hasn’t exactly covered itself in glory when it comes to predicting the course of events. It screwed up the Cuban missile crises, failed to predict the Iranian seizure of the US embassy in Teheran, failed to predict the collaspe of the Soviet Union, completely missed the existence of the Soviets’ massive biological weapons program, failed to predict Saddam’s invasion of Kuwait, etc.
Of course, intelligence is one of those areas where people and institutions only get noticed when something goes wrong. Successful predictions usually lead to actions that head off a possible negative event long before it shows up on the radar of the general public.
Given CIA’s track record, it could happen.