Old joke:
Q: How do we know for absolute certain that the C.I.A. had nothing to do with the assassination of John F. Kennedy?
A: He’s dead isn’t he?
The CIA hasn’t exactly covered itself in glory when it comes to predicting the course of events. It screwed up the Cuban missile crises, failed to predict the Iranian seizure of the US embassy in Teheran, failed to predict the collaspe of the Soviet Union, completely missed the existence of the Soviets’ massive biological weapons program, failed to predict Saddam’s invasion of Kuwait, etc.
Of course, intelligence is one of those areas where people and institutions only get noticed when something goes wrong. Successful predictions usually lead to actions that head off a possible negative event long before it shows up on the radar of the general public.
Still, I can’t help but worry that a CIA report (via Instapundit) predicting the breakup of the EU within 15 years actually presages the EU’s emergence as an economic and military hyperpower.
Given CIA’s track record, it could happen.
Bout time they pay their fair share.
As for the CIA, even a blind squirrel finds an acorn every once in a while. I have thought the EU was doomed because it was con game under which the French got the Germans to pay off the French farmers in lieu of war reparations. Eventually, the Germans would get tired of the game again and get up from the table.
The Germans tried to turn the table with the Euro, and force fiscal discipline on the French. The attempt failed because the Germans fell off the wagon.
Now they have tried to keep the con going by admitting a new crowd of suckers. But that will just result in chaos and confusion. Furthermore the proposed EU constitution is a bridge too far. If they can’t get all EU countries to sign on to the Euro, the Constitution will! not be that easy.
I have been short the EU and the Euro for a long time. I see no reason to back off now.