Miers’s Confirmation Odds: The Bottom Drops Out
Posted by Jonathan on October 21st, 2005 (All posts by Jonathan)
Intrade’s odds percentages for the Miers confirmation were hanging in the 60s for several days. Last night they dropped to around 50%. A few minutes ago they dropped to around 30%. I assume there is news but haven’t checked yet. Orin Kerr notices the same thing.
Maybe it wasn’t specific news that changed the odds, but rather a buildup of negative information and sentiment that became substantial enough to affect the nomination severely, perhaps fatally. Either way it now appears unlikely that Miers will be confirmed.
UPDATE: A few minutes after my initial post, the size market is around 30/40 and there is some trading at 40. Time-and-sales data (a new Intrade feature) show that about 200 contracts, maybe more, traded at 25, so the downdraft could have been based on nothing more than a running of stops or entry of a large sell order in a thin market. If that’s all it was, the price should rebound to the 50 range before very long.