Two reports from McKinsey are helpful in thinking about our 2040 scenario.
I have only looked at the — 30 page — executive summaries.
Disruptive technologies: Advances that will transform life, business, and the global economy
Disruptive technologies: Advances that will transform life, business, and the global economy
These McKinsey pieces were cited in a post on the US Chamber of Commerce Foundation site, which cited to our piece in The American, published by AEI. Thanks to Michael Hendrix for the post.
There is a good piece from CATO on a theme in our book:
The Income Tax: A Century Is Enough.
We heartily agree.
Also, I respond to a despairing blogger: building America 3.0 is up to us.
And there’s this post from Arnold Kling that mentions our post.
Last but not least, some discussion of America 3.0 from HBD*Chick.
You must first put a stake in the Heart of the 20th century.
Which by the way…
You may have just seen the Adjournment of the Estates. We won’t know until it’s happened.
No matter what happens.
I’m most surprised that we haven’t seen more progress in genetic engineering. I did see where someone has patented a designer baby process, but then immediately promised not to pursue it. I can only assume they have improvements planned, and when that’s been tested and given an FDA(?) go-ahead, they’ll pursue that instead.
I also agree that 3-D printing is going to be hugely disruptive, and mostly in a good way. Combined with CAD, custom design and fabrication will come into the home of anyone who wants it. We’ll also see a blooming of boutique manufacturers for almost any product you can imagine. Product designs will be available online for download. On the downside, anyone will be able to design and fabricate sophisticated weapons, and they will be untraceable as long as they can fabricated with commonly available printing materials.
Products like automobiles and computers and aircraft and spacecraft will be manufactured in factories or large central facilities for a long time yet. They’re simply too complex.
Most at risk are places like China and Indonesia, where low labor rates are what make them competitive. As product design and fabrication becomes more distributed and automated, labor rates will mean less and less.
I think it’s a little odd of Mckinsey to talk about the Mobile Internet as a “disruptive technology” between now and 2025…mobile Internet is already quite pervasive, and most of the disruption has already occurred. ( I’d have been more impressed if they’d identified Mobile Internet as a disruptive technology back in 2001 or so)