Remember the march up to Baghdad, and everybody said the Americans are bogging down, the sandstorms are too awful to fight in, debacle in the desert, etc.?
No one knew what the f*** they were talking about. The fog of war lay thickly o’er the field of battle.
Now, many people are saying, in authoritative tones, the Israelis have really lost the war already, or that Hez has won some symbolic victory, or that Hez cannot be defeated and will return strengthened to the fray, or that the Lebanese will be Israel’s enemies for decades, or that this whole thing was a terrible mistake for the Israelis, or the world will demand an end to the killing of civilians, etc.
Again, no one knows what the f*** they are talking about.
Journalists have to turn in something, even if they don’t have any decent facts, so they just yack. Bloggers, even the smart ones, denied much in the way of decent facts to chew on, have nothing to work with, and they just yack too.
(Yes, I include myself in that.)
Only the grossest outlines seem to me to be visible through the fog.
These seem to me to be key facts. Israel has just committed a large land army. Israel is blocking the exit to Syria. Hezbollah is fighting at least in some places, instead of hiding or running like good guerillas who have read their Mao would know to do. Israel has not stopped attacking even though there was, as expected, a Hez-created photo op of dead civilians, and the usual outcry from the usual suspects. Israel is being supported at least implicitly by the USA and indirectly by Europe and Egypt and Saudi, all of whom are afraid of Hez and would be relieved if it were destroyed and do not seem inclined to do anything serious to stop the Israelis. The Israelis have the momentum, and Hez is forced to respond to their attacks, not vice versa. Most importantly, the Isrealis are currently deeply engaged in whatever it is they are trying to do, so there is a lot of movement of vehicles and aircraft and shooting and smoke and babbling incoherence from people who are in the midst of it, sometimes tragically. This inchoate mass of images conveys nothing coherent.
These key facts do not, so far as I see, seem to point to an Israeli debacle. But the true “key facts” may be totally unknown to me, or to anybody, at this point. No one has the big picture, or if anyone does, they are not going to tell us anything about it in the middle of a high intensity shooting war.
The proverbial fog of war has again descended, and it is impenetrably dense.
We won’t know (1) what the Israelis are really up to, if they even know, they may actually be “winging it” from day to day or (2) whether whatever it is they are doing has worked or not, for a while yet.