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  • Israel: Possible Silver Lining

    Posted by Jonathan on August 19th, 2006 (All posts by )

    The news from Israel confirms that there’s a high degree of popular outrage over the poor performance of the politicians and military in Lebanon. Major reforms are likely, to judge by the tone of Israelis quoted in the press. In this regard the current situation resembles the aftermath of the 1973 war.

    If the recent war hadn’t happened — i.e., if Hezbollah and Iran had waited a few more years before making their move — Israel might have been even more unprepared for an even bigger attack. IOW even though the war has been a debacle, it may be that a debacle now, if its lessons can be assimilated in time, is preferable to a much bigger crisis down the road.

    For background, see here and here.

    (Note that the political demonstrations mentioned in the second article are not, contra the misleading headline, demonstrations in opposition to Israel’s participation in the war. They are demos against the leadership for mishandling the war.)

     

    5 Responses to “Israel: Possible Silver Lining”

    1. nzuckerman Says:

      This post attempts to find a silvber lin ing somehow , but what needs to be said is that the US is via satellite intel stopping Iranian high tech missiles being sent to Syria. The planes are stopped while trying to cross Turkish sky.

      If the rockets sent into N. Israel were so difficult to stop in their daily shots, how long before there are more sophisticated missles sent to Hezbollah, a group that seemingly no nation is willing or able to disarm in Lebanon?

    2. GFK Says:

      I think you are right Jonathan, but I don’t think that’s the only bonus here.

      I think the nuclear negotiations with Iran will be much more difficult going forward because of the events in Lebanon.

      First, Iran had been using Hezbollah as a potential threat, now that threat has been realized and diminished.

      Second, Iran has clearly demonstrated they give their own advanced weapons to terrorist groups outside their border. They’ve helped make the arguments against them acquiring the bomb.

    3. Jonathan Says:

      Good points, GFK.

    4. Robert Schwartz Says:

      More silver lining. Olmert and Peretz are toast.

    5. GFK Says:

      Ed Morrissey on silver linings:

      “Politically and strategically, I still think the Israelis came out ahead in this war. They forced Hezbollah to shoot off a third of its inventory and to lose a bigger proportion of their launchers, and they demonstrated that the rockets actually provide no deterrent to the Israelis. Instead, it showed them as a liability, a reason that Israel would consider a full-scale invasion of Lebanon. It also forced Lebanon to finally send its army into the sub-Litani region and gave Israel a reason to blockade Lebanon to keep arms from flowing into Hezbollah unmolested. Israel also established a much lower threshold for massive response, one that the proxies in the region and their hosts will remember for a long time.”

      http://www.captainsquartersblog.com/mt/archives/007903.php