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    One Million Health Care Workers

    Posted by Dan from Madison on 31st March 2020 (All posts by )

    As I was driving to work today I heard on Bloomberg that presidential candidate Andrew Cuomo requested a million health care workers to help with the crisis in New York. “A million!” I said to myself in my car.

    I looked at the population of New York City and it looks like there are around 8.5 million people there, where most of the problems are. Lets say ten million to make the math easy. So one health care worker per ten patients, assuming every single person in New York City gets sick. Really?

    Where would you put them all? Aren’t most of the hotels closed? That would be importing a city the size of San Jose or Austin into New York. Of course it is stupid, so my question is why does Cuomo say something like this?

    Posted in COVID-19, Current Events, Medicine | 11 Comments »

    Stuff Is Going To “Fall Off The Truck”

    Posted by Dan from Madison on 29th March 2020 (All posts by )

    In my previous post I hinted that perhaps Mr. Cuomo doesn’t really need forty thousand ventilators for the Covid-19 crisis in New York. A lively and interesting discussion ensued and I thank the commenters for that.

    Today I had on the Trump presser and I was doing other things until Trump said the following, (speaking of mask usage per day at a certain hospital) – and my ears perked up:

    “How do you go from 10 to 20, to 300,000 — 10 to 20,000 masks to 300,000, even though this is different. Something’s going on, and you ought to look into it, as reporters,” Trump said.

    As an aside, he really does speak in stream of consciousness, no? Anyways.

    I love math problems and would like to see the actual numbers of staff/masks if those numbers exist – that could be interesting. Trump could have been fluffing the numbers a bit to make a point on something he has heard. But Trump isn’t stupid and brought it up for a reason.

    Of course the Washington Post can’t have Trump doubting for a second that anyone in a democratic controlled area would…well…maybe…”borrow” some of the supplies – and they said that Trump was touting a “conspiracy theory”.

    When the books are written about this episode, I am fairly confident that waste and fraud will be two of the more interesting aspects. Some of it will be on purpose, and some of it will be just because this is a large project run by the government.

    Posted in COVID-19, Crime and Punishment, Current Events, Medicine, Trump | 3 Comments »

    Ventilator Math

    Posted by Dan from Madison on 27th March 2020 (All posts by )

    So Andrew Cuomo says that they need up to 40,000 ventilators in New York City.

    But “the number of ventilators we need is so astronomical,” Cuomo warned, pegging the “apex number” of ventilators that could be required in New York at 40,000.

    So, I like math and I enjoy trying to suss out these types of problems. I’m assuming that a normal “joe” can’t just wake up and intubate someone, and that probably your run of the mill nurse who checks your blood pressure can’t either. I found this list of physicians in New York State as of 2019:

    Psychiatry 6,759
    Surgery 4,293
    Anesthesiologists 4,262
    Emergency medicine 4,560
    Radiology 3,999
    Cardiology 3,149
    Oncology (cancer) 2,213
    Endocrinology, diabetes, & metabolism 902
    All other specialities 18,771
    Total specialty 48,908

    My guess is that at least half (more?) of these doctors probably aren’t able to intubate someone. So…I’m wondering (paging Dr. K), looking at these numbers of doctors that are up and running with their practice in the state of New York that are qualified, how would they even be able to use 40k ventilators? Maybe I am missing some legislation that would allow doctors from other states to practice in New York State right away. Perhaps it is easier than I think to intubate a patient and Joe Radiologist can do it. Anyone?

    Posted in COVID-19, Current Events, Medicine | 39 Comments »

    Positive Stores about Covid-19

    Posted by Dan from Madison on 26th March 2020 (All posts by )

    Amid all of the doom and gloom that the press is all too eager to peddle upon you for eyeballs and clicks, I present a few promising stories about the latest Chinese virus to infect our shores.

    Approximate timelines on medications/vaccines to combat the virus.
    Canadian scientists have successfully isolated the virus, an essential step in getting a vaccine ready for testing.
    A welcome side effect of the virus is that as people have sheltered, pollution has plummeted.
    A University of Minnesota doctor has gone MacGyver in creating a ventilator.
    The total number of people recovered has recently surpassed one hundred thousand.
    Projections of death totals could be orders of magnitude too high.
    Apple may start re-opening stores in China soon.

    There are many, many more good stories about the event if you care to test out your Google-fu.

    Also, some anecdotal items. It appears that people in general are helping one another, remaining calm for the most part, and doing the right things. If there were hospitals with people stranded in hallways or on floors we would have seen those photos/video by now so I am assuming that **at this point** they are handling the influx of patients just fine. My stores locally are fully stocked with all items, save some canned foods like tomato sauce, and of course paper products. I assume those will be available sooner rather than later.

    Discuss as you wish.

    Posted in China, COVID-19, Health Care, Human Behavior | 12 Comments »

    Illinois Should “Un Lock Down” Most of the State

    Posted by Dan from Madison on 23rd March 2020 (All posts by )

    As of this writing, outside of Chicago and the collar counties, the county with the most covid-19 infections is McLean with seven, followed by Winnebago with five. The vast majority of counties have zero. So why shut down the whole state? Probably a stupid question to ask the readership here.

    Posted in COVID-19, Current Events, Illinois Politics | 22 Comments »

    Covid-19 Weekend Update/Random Thoughts

    Posted by Dan from Madison on 21st March 2020 (All posts by )

    This morning I went on a long hike up at Devil’s Lake State Park. It was chilly, but there was no wind, which made it absolutely wonderful. I took the “hard” way, meaning I went up and down the bluffs twice as I made my way around the lake. The photo above is from the west bluff. There was hardly anyone there, which was eerie and peaceful, as this is Wisconsin’s most popular state park and I have never seen it so devoid of people. You could hear the ice heaving and breaking on the shore, and I heard some interesting birds making calls that I don’t typically get to hear. The migration is in full swing. During this time I prayed, meditated and got my workout in. I am very glad I did it after a long week.

    During the drive back, I noticed that a lot of farmers were spreading. The cycle of life continues here behind the cheddar curtain.

    So, some random Covid thoughts. I have enjoyed Governor Cuomo bitching and griping for help over the past week. What a whiner. Hey Cuomo – who has run New York for the past, ever? Maybe you should look in the mirror before you start playing politics. Same goes for Lori Lightfoot. Hopeless.

    My Illinois facility will remain open during the “stay at home” order issued by Gov. Pritzker as HVAC is an “essential business”. While I typically loathe anything this man does, he did a nice job with the presser yesterday, I will admit. Contrast that with Lori Lightfoot, who bitched and whined about the lack of federal response. There is one bit of hilarity in Pritzker’s “stay at home” order (yes, I read the whole thing). Can you tell me which one of these things is different from the other?

    Section 12 (h)
    Definition of Critical Trades
    Building and Construction Tradesmen and Tradeswomen, and other trades including but not limited to plumbers, electricians, exterminators, cleaning and janitorial staff for commercial and governmental properties, security staff, operating engineers, HVAC, painting, moving and relocation services, and other service providers who provide services that are necessary to maintaining the safety, sanitation, and essential operation of residences, Essential Activities, and Essential Businesses and Operations.

    Oh yea, he kept the pot shops open too.

    I am refreshed and pleasantly surprised by the State of Wisconsin coming forward with a united front and saying that there will be no “stay at home” order (otherwise known as government overreach). At least for now.

    I stopped at a convenience store on the way home and picked up a dozen eggs. They were $1.49 and there were plenty of them.

    Well, that’s about all I got. Hope everyone had half as good a day as I did. Let me know what you are seeing/feeling in your neck of the woods.

    Posted in COVID-19, Current Events, Personal Narrative | 33 Comments »

    COVID-19 Letter to Employees

    Posted by Dan from Madison on 15th March 2020 (All posts by )

    Regular readers here know that I own a small business that is in the trade of HVAC wholesale distribution, which is a subset of industrial distribution. Today I came out with a statement to the employees and I am interested in what the readers here think about it. If you are interested, please see below the fold and thanks in advance for any comments, good or bad. Some parts redacted or altered to preserve privacy.
    Read the rest of this entry »

    Posted in Business, COVID-19, Current Events | 11 Comments »

    Co-Vid -19 and Supply Chain

    Posted by Dan from Madison on 4th March 2020 (All posts by )

    As I mentioned on these pages a few days ago, I am attending a national conference in DC for my company and around 300 of our vendors. As a reminder, I am involved in industrial distribution (actually HVAC distribution, which is a subset of industrial distribution).

    I asked the same question of dozens of my top vendors, and it was basically “what issues are you seeing with regards to the production slowdowns in China?”. I left the question open intentionally as I didn’t want to funnel responses.

    Almost all of them, as if they rehearsed their responses together, said the following:

    We have enough safety stock to get us through the Spring orders and a few months afterward.
    We are in constant contact with our Chinese vendors (as if this means anything) and are looking at alternate sources (prices will increase).
    There may be shortages on certain items in the future.

    I distilled these responses down a bit and thought about it and I think that there will be some supply chain issues, and there may be some opportunities. One vendor remarked that once Chinese production is fully back on line that there is a container logjam anticipated that might put some orders back several months. The vendors could be giving us the “remain calm” routine to try to keep runs on product to a minimum, but the demand in HVAC just isn’t there right now, as we are firmly in “shoulder” season. Shoulder season is Spring and Fall, where there aren’t too many emergencies, unless you live in the commercial world, where everything is an emergency.

    Not much more outside of these comments was related to me and I think they are for the most part telling the truth. I guess we will know in a few months. If we start out Spring with some hot weather like in 2018, we could start to see some relationships tested.

    Posted in China, COVID-19, Current Events | 2 Comments »

    A Presidential Ad in Wisconsin for Someone Not Named Bloomberg

    Posted by Dan from Madison on 1st March 2020 (All posts by )

    I have finally seen an ad for “not Mike Bloomberg” here in Wisconsin – it was sort of like a bigfoot sighting I was so slack-jawed. And it was from an unlikely source: Liz Warren. The ad wasn’t about how great she was or about any sort of policy, rather it was a Bloomberg bash. I couldn’t find the ad on youtube, but essentially it just said something like “hey, aren’t you tired of all of those Bloomberg ads, billionaires bad, I’m Elizabeth Warren and I approve this message”. I thought for sure I would have started to see some Biden stuff by now, but not a peep, as of yet.

    Posted in Politics | 12 Comments »

    Co-Vid 19 and Supply Chain

    Posted by Dan from Madison on 26th February 2020 (All posts by )

    As I mentioned on these pages a few days ago, there will be supply chain issues with the Co-Vid 19 event, whether you think it is the next Black Plague, or just another version of the flu (from reading the comments on Trent’s post on the subject, we appear to have both reading here). As a reminder, I deal in HVAC distribution, which is a subset of industrial distribution. Most equipment for my market is made close to the USA or in the USA itself, but the component parts are many times made in China.

    Today I got the first letter from a vendor talking about the possible issues. They are saying that they are preparing to see product shortages due to component supply problems and are actively trying to source from other places, but the information is very general in nature. It seemed more CYA than anything and almost could be a force majeure setup, recommended by their attorneys to get ahead of contracted jobs. I have no proof of that but have seen enough legal documents in my day to know that a lawyer or ten helped write their CoVid-19 letter rather than a bunch of HVAC dorks like me.

    But let’s be real for a minute. The supply chain (in my industry) is long so we aren’t likely to see any problems for the Summer, as most of those orders for inventory are already in the tank and on their way to our warehouses. Fall/Winter is my estimate for issues in industrial distribution if the problem continues. And that could be a BIG problem for you if you have a house where a furnace breaks down and it is -20 outside. Critical infrastructure will get priority I am assuming (blood banks, etc) but you don’t know when that stuff will break, do you?

    As I receive more communications from my vendors I will put up an occasional post here. I have a meeting next week in DC and will personally speak with many of my vendor contacts and may get more/better information at the cocktail parties when my contacts get loosened up from the booze. It’s going to be an interesting year in industrial distribution and I imagine that the Chinese are going to lose some business over this when it is all said and done, never to come back (the main reason I don’t think this whole episode is fiction/blown out of proportion – incentives).

    Posted in Business, China, COVID-19 | 14 Comments »

    COVID-19 From a Business Perspective

    Posted by Dan from Madison on 18th February 2020 (All posts by )

    I live in the world of HVAC distribution, which is basically a subset of industrial distribution. The information flow concerning COVID-19 is interesting. There are some of my vendors who are in full freak out mode, as they are already getting short on items imported from China. Some of these items are part of a larger item being put together either in Mexico or here in the States. Other items are things that my vendors simply repackage and resell. I have also heard a rumor that certain chemicals and finished copper products are going to have issues in the near future. There are some vendors that are just “shoulder shrugging” the whole thing off at this point. The reactions are all over the board from my vendors.

    I imagine that we will know a lot more when the Spring AC calls start coming as most vendors typically have a 30-60 day safety supply stateside.

    This could end up quite profitable for other regions of the world vs. China, and it may be business that China will never get back. Time will tell.

    Posted in Business, China, COVID-19 | 4 Comments »

    New Bloomberg Ad Buy in Wisconsin

    Posted by Dan from Madison on 7th February 2020 (All posts by )

    As reported here a month or so ago, we are getting absolutely deluged with Bloomberg ads (and not a one from any other candidate) here in Wisconsin. There has been a slight tack in course however, as Bloomberg is now bringing Obama into the picture. Here is the ad they are currently running here behind the cheddar curtain:
    Read the rest of this entry »

    Posted in Obama, Politics | 17 Comments »

    Presidential Ad Placement in Wisconsin

    Posted by Dan from Madison on 15th January 2020 (All posts by )

    I sort of wish Wisconsin wasn’t in play in the presidential election, but here we are. I work very hard and do enjoy my evenings at peace with Wheel of Fortune, and perhaps a sporting event on TV. Sadly, my peace at home has been trifled with for the past several months, and I fear it will be a nonstop blitz until November.

    As of now, we are getting crushed with a massive ad buy from Bloomberg. And that’s it. Bloomberg is everywhere. And no other candidates (including Trump) on the media I consume, at least. Upon questioning the spousal unit, who watches things on TV that are apparently called “shows”, of which I have never heard of, she reports that it is all Bloomberg all the time too. She also inquired as to who this guy is and I simply told her “nobody you need to be concerned with”.

    As of several months ago we had ads from some different candidates. I remember ads from Robert Francis O Rourke and a few others but none of the buys have been as massive as this salvo from Bloomberg.

    That’s all I got for now. More to come as the campaign develops.

    Posted in Elections, Politics | 20 Comments »

    Recommended Reading – The End of the Anti-Library

    Posted by Dan from Madison on 4th December 2019 (All posts by )

    For as long as I can remember I have had a pretty decently sized anti-library. Probably not as massive as some who read here, but still enough to be a pain in the butt when moving. I decided a year or two ago not to buy any books until I read what I had. This worked in principle, however relatives piled on with gifts of books, so I had to issue an edict that they please not buy me any more books as well.

    When I finish reading books (yes, real books, the kindle and other electronic formats don’t work well with me) I send them to Carl for his perusal and subsequent disposal in one way or another into the Portland, Oregon ecosystem. He returns the favor, so we are carbon neutral, at least in that aspect.

    I have two left to read, and my anti-library will be no more. I plan on reading those on an upcoming beach vacation. They are:

    Stephan Zweig – Beware of Pity – the only novel he wrote, and I am looking forward to is as I don’t read a lot of fiction.

    The Wars of the Roosevelts – The Ruthless Rise of America’s Greatest Political Family – this was a gift as it isn’t my typical wheelhouse for history, but I should learn some interesting stuff.

    Here is what I read this year, with a short description of each:
    Read the rest of this entry »

    Posted in Book Notes, History | 16 Comments »

    ChicagoBoyz Waiting Room Series 26

    Posted by Dan from Madison on 9th November 2019 (All posts by )

    Posted in Waiting Rooms | 7 Comments »

    ChicagoBoyz Waiting Room Series: 25

    Posted by Dan from Madison on 1st July 2019 (All posts by )

    Posted in Waiting Rooms | 2 Comments »

    Dr. Kennedy, Paging Dr. Kennedy…

    Posted by Dan from Madison on 27th June 2019 (All posts by )

    What is going on with Angela Merkel? Seen again shaking today. That is all I have for today, please and thank you.

    Posted in Current Events, Germany | 6 Comments »

    ChicagoBoyz Waiting Room Series: 24

    Posted by Dan from Madison on 11th May 2019 (All posts by )

    Posted in Waiting Rooms | 7 Comments »

    ChicagoBoyz Waiting Room Series: 22

    Posted by Dan from Madison on 10th February 2019 (All posts by )

    Posted in Waiting Rooms | 2 Comments »

    ChicagoBoyz Waiting Room Series: 21

    Posted by Dan from Madison on 25th January 2019 (All posts by )

    Posted in Waiting Rooms | 6 Comments »

    ChicagoBoyz Waiting Room Series 19

    Posted by Dan from Madison on 13th December 2018 (All posts by )

    Posted in Waiting Rooms | 8 Comments »

    ChicagoBoyz Waiting Room Series 18

    Posted by Dan from Madison on 11th December 2018 (All posts by )

    Posted in Waiting Rooms | 5 Comments »

    ChicagoBoyz Waiting Room Series 17

    Posted by Dan from Madison on 27th November 2018 (All posts by )

    Posted in Waiting Rooms | 4 Comments »

    ChicagoBoyz Waiting Room Series 16

    Posted by Dan from Madison on 13th November 2018 (All posts by )

    Posted in Waiting Rooms | 2 Comments »

    ChicagoBoyz Waiting Room Series 15

    Posted by Dan from Madison on 30th October 2018 (All posts by )

    Song Selections on the PA during my short wait:
    “Where Are You Going?” – Dave Matthews Band
    “Don’t Forget Me When I’m Gone” – Glass Tiger
    “Roll To Me” – Del Amitri

    Posted in Waiting Rooms | 13 Comments »