Chicago man Scott Burgess is now blogging from London. We look forward to hearing more from him.
Jonathan
Just What Price?*
Thomas Sowell writes:
Politicians who claim to be able to “bring down the cost of health care” are talking about bringing down the prices charged. But prices are not costs. Prices are what pay for costs.
(via Samizdata)
*The economist Frank Knight is reputed to have quipped: “A just price — just what price?”
Wrong About Bonds?
A few weeks ago I fretted about the apparent contradictions of Bush’s economic policy. I thought that
Either there’s going to be continued economic recovery and bonds are going to get killed, or there’s going to be a weaker recovery combined with inflation and a weak dollar and bonds are going to get killed.
Now I’m not sure. Stocks haven’t been able to rally in the short run, the dollar is weaker, and the bond market is bubbling and simmering.
Note also (e.g., here and here) that growth rates in monetary aggregates slowed significantly during recent months. It’s conceivable that the markets have already discounted expected inflation. Rates may yet go up as the economy continues to recover, but in the short run, at least, inflation fears may not be as potent as they were a few months ago.
There’s a bunch of economic statistics due to be released Friday. Recent number releases have tended to be upside surprises that were positive for stocks and negative for bonds. The same thing could happen tomorrow. However, the markets seem to have begun to discount optimism. If tomorrow’s data come out below expectations we could get a big break in stocks and a pop in the bond market. That would be the path of least resistance.
Maybe in the long run bonds really will get killed, but that forecast seems premature for now. Too many people expect it, just as too many of us are waiting for a stock rally. Market reaction to the coming data releases should help to clarify whether the bond market’s recent strength will continue or has run its course.
Faulty Business Model Update
A few months ago I wrote a couple of posts (here and here) in which I argued that the Ritz/Dakota single-use digital camera was probably doomed to commercial failure:
Certainly there is a benefit from eliminating film development and from reusing cheap digital cameras. The problem for Ritz is that it can’t prevent consumers from capturing this entire benefit for themselves by buying their own digicams and printers. All that is necessary is for someone to introduce a cheap reusable digicam, which is surely not more difficult to develop than a cheap digicam that is fitted with devices to prevent consumers from downloading their photos on their own. (There are already $20 reusable digicams. Image quality is low, but there is no reason to think price and quality won’t improve.)
I was right, though not quite in the way that I expected. It turns out that the Dakota digicam is already reusable — if you know how to hack it. A guy who does know was kind enough to leave a comment on my old post, with a link to his web site. With just a few simple adjustments the Dakota is capable of making excellent images and can be used again and again. Not a bad deal for 11 bucks. I don’t think it will be long before inexpensive, reusable digicams are widely available commercially. The Dakota is a transition product that will soon be eclipsed.
(BTW, the commenter describes himself as “a recently-graduated electrical engineer looking for work. If you know of any openings for an entry-level EE/CE, drop me a line or feel free to peruse/send my resume.” I don’t know anything about electrical engineering but he seems to be on the ball.)
Armistice/Veterans’/Remembrance Day
In the U.S., the name of this holiday has changed and its scope has expanded. In other countries it is called something else. But these are mere details in the scheme of things. It is important to remember those who fought, and especially those who died, defending our country.
The late philosopher Emil Fackenheim famously said that Jews should not give Hitler posthumous victories. Perhaps we should extend this prescription to say that citizens of democracies should not give Hitler posthumous victories by yielding to his philosophical heirs who now attack us.