China

Instapundit has provided us with pictures of the anti-Japanese riots in China. This news story quotes the Japanese government complaining that the Chinese knew well in advance that these riots were going to happen and “did nothing” to stop them. Japanese understatement at work. The official explanation is that the Chinese people are angry about Japanese textbooks. Maybe. There may be people who are upset about this. In China, however, an organized and disciplined “riot” like this is anything but a spontaneous expression of popular sentiment. The Chinese government is a hard-nosed authoritarian regime that picks and chooses who will get to have a riot and about what. A real riot would be met with immediate and lethal government force. The Chinese government decided to have “riots” after the United States bombed their embassy in Serbia, as I recall, and these were blatantly done with government cooperation and organization. The Chinese government uses “popular” violence as a way to have plausible deniability when it wants to send a violent signal to a foreign government. So why three weeks in a row of anti-Japanese riots? In this case, the Chinese government appears to be sending the Japanese business community a signal that its interests will be damaged if the Japanese government continues down the path of an anti-Chinese military alliance with the United States. China’s communists are well aware of Lenin’s dictum that the capitalist will sell you the rope to hang him with. Lenin was usually right. Why fight the Japanese Navy when you can get its business people to remove it from the fight before the fight begins? Let’s see if the Japanese crack.

UPDATE: Instapundit has an update linking to the email sent around to organize the “riot”.

For some time now, we’ve been talking about how China continually makes noise about how they might just invade Taiwan.

My take on it has always been that China can’t win as long as the United States would oppose an invasion, and it’s going to be a long time (if ever) before China could hope to match the US forces that could be surged to the area in the event of a shooting war.

Something very interesting was mentioned by the readers in the comments. Since economic ties with both Taiwan and the United States are very strong and are growing every day, any invasion would mean devastation to the Chinese economy. It’s doubtful that the Communist government could survive such a disruption.

I’m mentioning this because Strategypage.com has a post that essentially says the same thing. (Post from April 11, 2005)

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The US military is looking towards China as the biggest threat in the foreseeable future. Every year the Chinese keep increasing their defense budget and modernizing their armed forces, all the while rattling their sabers and acting like the armed invasion of Taiwan is just around the corner.

While the Chinese might very well do something stupid like launch an invasion across the Formosa Straights, I’m not convinced that they’re as much of a problem as anyone trying to guard a defense budget says they are. As long as the US and her allies stand by Taiwan, they don’t have a realistic chance of taking the island by force.

This essay by Harold C. Hutchison at Strategypage.com examines the changes being made in the Chinese Air Force. (Post from April 9, 2005.) While the PLAAF has huge numbers of aircraft, the majority are outmoded models that wouldn’t stand a chance. Even the modernized aircraft that the Chinese can bring to bear couldn’t be used to their full potential due to a lack of force-multiplying support aircraft and low levels of pilot training.

It’s worth a read, if only because most observers have been focusing on the naval situation and missing the air force picture.

A reader named Paul Stinchfield left a very interesting question at this post.

I have seen accounts of Chinese citizens becoming violently enraged at even the most polite disagreement with Chinese policy regarding Taiwan, Tibet, etc. And yes, I mean literally, not figuratively, violent. What do you know about this, Mr. Rummel, and what clues might this give us to what the Chinese government might do?

I would be very interested in the thoughts of somebody who has actually studied China.

I’m more interested in military history than current political reality, so most of my studies have concentrated in that area. But there are a few things that jump out when someone takes even a casual glance at China.

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Here and here. The recent Chinese threats against Taiwan, and American Congressional threats to stop arms transfers to Europe, and whatever W and Condi told these b*stards when the door was closed seems to be working. Good.

“British officials have signaled increasing reluctance to advance the process, because of China’s slow progress on human rights and the new law on Taiwan. Some European governments no longer wish to jeopardize the recent thaw in transatlantic relations over the embargo.” “Diplomats said the UK was sounding out other governments in support of a postponement, possibly until 2006.”

Good to see the British taking the lead on this. Britain’s defense and intelligence partnership with the USA is far too valuable to throw away for a few renminbi from the Chicoms.