Iraq Museum

The LA Times (6/20/05, E1+) reports on a new book, “The Looting of the Iraq Museum, Baghdad,” ed. Donny George, the director of the museum. The Times story notes that “early estimates of losses turned out to be wildly inflated.” In fact, the “early estimates” were that something like 150,000 pieces were stolen in 48 hours. A moment’s reflection on the logistic issues would have shown that that couldn’t be right. The story has never been told about how the New York Times and other media could have been so gullible as to report such claims or how it came about that the NY Times correspondent in Baghdad came up with these false claims–and doubtless we will never learn how this could have happened. Eventually, the very newspapers that misreported the story and collected equally gullible expressions of shock and outrage from academics and others reported the results of an Army investigation that came much closer to the facts. But by then the story had already been used up in polemics against the invasion, which were never retracted, corrected, or apologized for.

The fact is that perhaps 15,000 objects were stolen, with some indications pointing to an inside job. About half of these have been recovered, and the director remarks that “in an almost daily action, people–police, customs officers at the airport–are bringing objects to the museum.” Iraqis are even buying pieces with their own money and returning them.

This is not the only case when someone who asks the question, exactly how many pieces were stolen?, hears the accusation, you are “minimizing the seriousness of the issue.” But seeking precise facts is not minimizing anything. The demand for indignation without precision is mental laziness motivated by the desire to recruit an unfortunate or even tragic event for a polemical purpose whose intensity is permitted to outrun evidence. This is a common fallacy in political arguments where facts are used not as the basis for a conclusion–critical or not–but as talismans for opinions formed in passion and expressed in fury. The aim is not to find the truth nor even to defeat a misinformed opponent but to foreclose debate by implying that anyone who disagrees or even asks for details is morally defective and outrageously irrational. Moral posturing replaces analysis and debate.

The museum has still not been reopened. It is “in a very hot spot in Baghdad,” near a center of insurgent activity. Two museum guards were wounded by gunfire and hospitalized. But the end of the article (why is this saved for the end?) has some good news. The museum is being fortified and refurbished. Motion detectors and surveillance cameras are being installed in the galleries. The staff have been given courses, “mostly outside the country.” Director George concludes, “We will reopen the IraqiMuseum at a very high standard. I am looking forward to the party.” Can anyone tell me if the New York Times carried this story? Will any of their reporters be attending the party?

ILCS vs LIMS

The Iraqi Ministry of Planning and Development Cooperation, in conjunction with the U.N. Development Program, has released an extensive survey of conditions in Iraq, called Iraq Living Conditions Survey 2004 (ILCS). The part of the survey dealing with war related deaths appears to strongly undercut the Lancet Iraqi Mortality Survey (LIMS) of which I have been so critical.

The home page for the ILCS contains links to PDFs of the full report divided in three volumes: Volume I: Tabulation Report, Volume II: Analytical Report and Volume III: Socio-economic Atlas. The Analytical Report is the main document.

I haven’t had time to thoroughly digest the new study but I do have some preliminary observations. Take them with a grain of salt. I’m not ready to declare myself vindicated yet.

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Study Supports Shannon’s Suspicions

Tim Blair discusses the latest UN report, of approximately 24,000 dead as of a year ago. This is from an article on the UN’s analysis of Iraq, “Iraqis Soldier on Without Power, Water, Jobs, Sewers.” (Via Instapundit, then Worstall). Of course, the Times hits a nicely humanist point:

Staffan di Mistura, the UN’s No 2 in Iraq, said that the only encouraging finding was that the situation could have been even worse, were it not for the Iraqi people, who still managed to survive in the face of impossible challenges.

This tenacity is demonstrated by the large number of civilian deaths we now hear about daily: these deaths are often of men stubbornly applying for work as policemen, wanting to give the simple civil order that’s necessary to fix the other problems. The murderers of such people (and those in the marketplaces) are not always Iraqis and want neither civil order nor a democratic, rebuilt Iraq. (As the title indicates, this may not be the emphasis the Times or, at least, the UN wants us to take away.)

[See Shannon’s collected Lancet critiques here. JG]

The Italian Con

So here’s an idea that I haven’t seen yet in the blogosphere about the hostage taking of Giuliana Sgrena.

What if the entire episode was just a scam to force the Italian government to financially support the terrorists in Iraq?

I don’t think the Italian government was involved but I do think it likely that Giuliana Sgrena was. She is a communist with a long track-record of anti-American hatred. She was in Iraq in the first place to provide propaganda support for the “insurgency.” Perhaps she simply thought she could help the “insurgency” more by becoming a high-profile hostage than she could as a “journalist.” The “insurgents” are reportedly running out of money. Maybe they convinced her to cooperate with funding their operations.

The Wall Street Journal reports that the Italians paid as much a $6 million dollars to secure her release. What a boon to the terrorists!

Even if Giuliana Sgrena was just a useful idiot, she failed at her stated aim of helping the Iraqi people. The millions paid for her release will pay for more terrorist attacks whose primary victims will be ordinary Iraqis.

Whether due to intent or incompetence, she will in the end kill far more Iraqis than will the most trigger happy American soldier. Had she in fact died at the checkpoint it would have been karmically just.