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Jed Babbin at NRO discusses how the Iraqi regime might exploit international and, especially, domestic U.S. opposition to the war to generate a cease fire. That’s all the regime needs, because it must only survive, whereas we have to win.

The U.S. may be in a position vis a vis Iraq similar to that faced chronically by Israel in responding to existential threats. Israel has typically (cf., 1956, 1967, 1973, 1982, 2002) been forced to fight quickly enough to meet its military objectives before bigger countries intervened to stop the war. The United States faces relatively little effective international pressure (though there is some, particularly as we want to keep the UK on board and are sensitive to Tony Blair’s concerns). What should worry us more is the possibility of significant domestic political opposition should our military efforts appear to bog down. The “anti war” demonstrators are not very effective, and may even be generating support for the war, but it’s obvious that much of the press is hostile to the war effort and so are leading Democratic politicians. These latter groups will not hesitate to exploit military setbacks for political gain to the extent they can get away with doing so.

Things appear to be going well but anything can happen. The Iraqi regime may be more resourceful and tenacious than the Taliban was. I hope that our war planners understand that our efforts in Iraq face political as well as military danger, and that the political risk increases with time. We should keep moving militarily and not stop until we win.

Glenn Reynolds links to this article by Michael Leeden and quotes this passage:

The leaders insisted on a disciplined “no” vote because of pressure – some would call it blackmail – from France and Germany. The French and German governments informed the Turkish opposition parties that if they voted to help the Coalition war effort, Turkey would be locked out of Europe for a generation. As one Turkish leader put it, “there were no promises, only threats.” One can describe this behavior on the part of our erstwhile Old Europe allies only as a deliberate act of sabotage against America in time of war. I think that when the events of the past few months are sorted out, we will find that French actions constitute the diplomatic equivalent of chemical and biological warfare. Monsieur Chirac has stopped at nothing to try to prevent the defeat of Saddam Hussein, no matter how many American lives it cost. And, more often than not, the Germans tagged along for the ride.

Please note that Leeden doesn’t offer any evidence for these serious allegations. Such blatant dealings would also become public very quickly. If Leeden really knew about them, the Bush Administration would also have to know, by leaks or intelligence services. And if that were the case there already would have been an enormous public stink about it. The Turks also would never meekly submit to such pressure, as can be seen by past behavior and the way they presently refuse to give way before American pressure. Their intention to place troops in Northern Iraq also can’t be explained by French-German pressure; to the contrary, both countries have urged Turkey to stay out. In a nutshell, if Leeden can’t back his accusations up with evidence, this is nothing more than a conspiracy-theory. I can only wonder why Reynolds accepted it so uncritically.

It’s interesting to watch polite, articulate, well groomed military officers field questions from slovenly reporters who look and sound like college students after an all-nighter. Clearly, some of the best people in our society have chosen military careers. With rare exceptions, the same cannot be said of journalism.

Worry not, Lex. I don’t think the anti-war demonstrators are helping their own cause. If anything they are antagonizing the many Americans who are inclined to support our government while our troops are in harm’s way.

The loony-lefties who drive the demos probably think they are positioning themselves to ride any wave of popular anti-war sentiment that develops in response to war setbacks. I think it’s more likely that the inevitable setbacks will increase popular determination to see the war through, and that many Americans will blame the antis for encouraging and even aiding our enemies. This isn’t Vietnam, where there were widespread doubts both about our tactics and our reasons for being at war. (It isn’t Algeria, either, Jacques.) The case for war against the Iraqi regime is clear. The case for finishing the job — after the first Gulf War and endless resolutions and sanctions didn’t — ought to be clear to anyone who isn’t blind.

We’ll win, and I don’t think it will be as difficult at you fear. Iraq isn’t 1940s Japan, the hard core of Hussein’s supporters isn’t likely to resist indefinitely. Those who aren’t soon killed or captured face an inevitable choice between 1) certain death in battle, 2) surrendering to U.S. troops and probably surviving, 3) being killed by other Iraqis, and 4) trying to escape while there’s still time. How many will choose death as opposed to some variant of surrendering or escaping? My guess is that an increasing number of them will, in one way or another, stop fighting as our victory becomes increasingly certain.

International hostility? We ought to be used to it by now, and it doesn’t seem to be slowing us down. The only thing that can stop us is if we lose our nerve, and I don’t think that will happen.

Pardon me a non-war post.

My lovely wife and I went to see the fabulous Eyeliners last night at the run-down but lovable Fireside Bowl. (See this earlier post.)

Lisa, Laura and Gel were in excellent form, though their vocals were mixed way too low for the first few songs. Lots of pep, great songs, great stage presence. The crowd was the usual mix of mostly teenagers and a few old fogeys. The Eyeliners closed with Blitzkreig Bop. Hey, Ho! Let’s Go! The Ramones will never really die, baby. We bought the new cd, which I very strongly recommend. Not one bad song on it. (I also got this super cool punk rock t-shirt.)

There are still a few shows left on this tour, heading West. So check ’em out.