Statistical Tie in Massachusetts?

Democrat pollsters PPP show Scott Brown one point ahead of Martha Coakley in the race for the now dead Ted Kennedy’s Senate seat.

As Michael Barone puts it: Wow.

This is still a long shot, but not, apparently, a forlorn hope.

(There is also a poll from the Boston Globe showing Coakley 15 points ahead. I believe the Globe, about anything, about as much as I believe the North Korean Communist Party’s official pronouncements. Rasmussen had Coakley ahead by 9 points on January 5, 2009, and there is no way she has picked up six points since then.)

I liked Brown’s TV ad, showing JFK’s tax cut message. Nicely done.

The fact that this race is even close shows that the Obama / Reid / Pelosi leadership is failing miserably for the Democrats.

I was in Massachusetts in 1980 when the state confounded everyone by voting for Reagan. I am hoping it surprises everyone again.

UPDATE: A friend wrote, expressing concern about vote fraud in this race. While I don’t discount this entirely, this was my response:

I am not so sure about massive fraud. Massachusetts is a funny
place. It is very liberal, but it has very civic minded populace, and
blatant Chicago style crooked elections don’t really happen there. I
grew up there and got to compare it to Chicago. Chicago does not come
off favorably. The race will also be closely scrutinized. I am not
sure how much of an issue that will be. If it was Illinois, you could
count on it.

UPDATE II: A friend out in Mass tells me she is seeing people holding signs for Brown, not seeing that for Coakley, and also way more Brown yard signs. This seems to show the energy level is with Brown, which is consistent with other things I am reading. She also pointed out something about Brown that I hadn’t thought of: He is like Obama seemed to be in 2008: “He’s also likable, handsome and different than usual.” Yes. Right. Obama ran against the status quo, and won. Brown is running against the status quo. He’ll probably lose, but he is making a real race out of it.

Funny. Brown as Obama 2.0 — returned to Earth as a Conservative.

Also: Good to see people sending money Brown’s way. The last few days will matter a lot, and money talks.

8 thoughts on “Statistical Tie in Massachusetts?”

  1. I hope it happens, but if it doesn’t, there should be a plan B, a plan C, a plan D etc to put a brake on the health care bill or to repeal it if passed.

    I’m horrible at the legislative wrangling: what sites to some of you read to keep up? What should some of us be doing? I haven’t blogged about it because I feel like I am preaching to the choir. What should I actually DO?

  2. One factor that may not be well known is Coakley’s role in the Amirault case. She was a prime mover in that gross injustice and the other politicians involved have all been retired by voters. Non-Mass residents may not be ware of the case as it was nearly 30 years ago but there are lots of people in Mass who do remember.

  3. We all thought Minnesota was a squeaky clean state politically also but the Franken cheating showed otherwise.

    Voting fraud is a very direct threat to our democracy and our republican form of government. We can start by tightening restrictions on absentee ballots and requiring ID at polling places.

  4. Fraud will pop-up in unexpected places this year and in 2012; call it “sharing the Chicago-way”—given that very little of the stimulus, so-called, has been spent…

  5. Can’t donate it seems, since I am in the process of becoming a contractor through the VA. Is that what federal contractor means on that site?

    You know, it’s really easy to break the rules with this online donating stuff. So, I’m gonna be honest and stay away from it, but how does anyone know if a person donating really is a US citizen, or if you contract for the fed government?

    Back to calling and writing letters to my local officials….

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