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  • Are Things Looking Up?

    Posted by Jonathan on June 30th, 2010 (All posts by )

    Krugman is a contrary indicator. The combination of this column and the fact that Intrade now shows Republicans as having >50% odds to take over the House in 2010, gives hope. Political gridlock would be great for the economy.


    12 Responses to “Are Things Looking Up?”

    1. LibertyAtStake Says:

      Political gridlock would be OK for the economy. Fantabulous for the future of the republic.
      [For a light hearted take on our present peril]

    2. Michael Kennedy Says:

      The Republican Congress saved Bill Clinton and he is now given credit for the economy in the 90s.

      Too bad they fell into Washington ways soon after. Maybe they have learned a lesson. The tea parties are helping enormously.

    3. Lexington Green Says:

      HUGE relief to see the Donks finally fall below 50 on Intrade.

    4. cjm Says:

      Agincourt 2010, coming their way.

    5. Dan from Madison Says:

      Agree 100% with Krugman being a contrary indicator.

    6. Bruno Behrend Says:

      The issue shouldn’t be if Rs take over, (save to prevent them from making an absurd mistake like a “2-months hate” directed at Mexicans), but how many seats we take that we didn’t think we could win.

      The 1994 takeover saw many “shockers.” 2010 has people like Obey abandoning ship rather than fight.

      The most important thing in my view, is that they have a mandate to do something. To me, there are 2-3 strategic scenarios.

      1. Contract of sorts (1994) ID Specific issues.
      2. No issues, but run against Obamunism.
      3. Run on principles for limited government, but not nec. on specific issues.

      either way, Rs should use 2010-12 as proving ground for better policies. Make sure Rs don’t “save Obama” as they did Clinton in 1994-6

      Also, we ought not forget the Senate. 2012 has the Dems defending 22 of 34 seats up for election. Gains in 2010 could become drive to 60 for 2012.

      Of course, all of this assumes Rs have a brain and a strategic vision, which is a) doubtful, and b) probably a bad strategy, if they have one.

      My fees are very low.

    7. Robert Schwartz Says:

      can’t we get some new Intrade contracts. Nobody cares about Tom Delay anymore and the Euro is a dead issue in the UK.

    8. bgates Says:

      a “2-months hate” directed at Mexicans? Grow up. There’s substantial bipartisan support in favor of emulating Mexicans, at least when it comes to border control (though there is certainly little enthusiasm in this country for the kind of xenophobic abuse even legal immigrants are subjected to in Mexico).

    9. Jonathan Says:

      Robert, I’ll update the Intrade list soon. I usually don’t remove contracts until they expire or are superseded. In the meantime you can get the latest info by visiting Please feel free to email me with your suggestions for the Intrade board here.

    10. onparkstreet Says:

      I don’t know what to think anymore….

      – Madhu

      (Vote, vote, vote the “bums” out in November!)

    11. Joe from Hell Says:

      This is what has me worried. Krugman is an excellent fade, and I have been out of the market since Obama was elected, save a few strategic trades in metals and currencies.

      It would seem like it is a great time to scale in ahead of a Republican victory this fall (again the Krugman indicator) – BUT – have these guys done so much damage that even if the Repubs take the House they would have to instantly unwind everything Obama, Pelosi, Reid have done (slim chance in my opinion) in order to make a difference?

      Paralysis by analysis…

    12. Jonathan Says:

      Gloom and doom are thick on the ground, yet the market doesn’t follow. Maybe the path of least resistance for stocks is up. In that case the correct strategy could be short-term long and long-term short, to quote a great trader.

      You can use your stock profits to cover the decay on your bond puts.