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  • A superior crystal ball?

    Posted by Andy B on April 28th, 2004 (All posts by )

    I’ll be damned if Lex’s Hillary scenario is not looking more likely every day.


    8 Responses to “A superior crystal ball?”

    1. Jonathan Says:

      I agree that it’s an entertaining scenario but I think it’s unlikely. Look at Hillary’s odds on our quote board: they aren’t going anywhere. OTOH, Bush’s reelection odds appear to be creeping up. These numbers are consistent with Kerry remaining the nominee.

    2. Lex Says:

      Jonathan thinks like a trader. I think like a lawyer. My understanding of the situation is this. (1) Kerry has a majority of the delegates going into the convention. (2) Those delegates are pledged to vote for him. So, unless he voluntarily releases them, or dies, he is the nominee. That seems to close the substantive discussion.

      So, why is this a story? Two reasons. (1) Pundits make things up to write about, and it is a long time until the election. (2) The Village Voice is very liberal and not happy with Kerry shading right (to the extent a vector can be discerned) as he must, to try to win. A possible third reason, the VV is very gay-oriented, and Kerry has not been supportive of “gay marriage”, and this may be shot across the bow.

      As a political junkie I have spent my life waiting for a convention floor-fight like we read about in the history books. I don’t the rules the parties live under make that possible anymore.

    3. Andy B Says:


    4. Lex Says:

      Andy, be careful what you wish for. I think W will crush Kerry like a bug. Hillary, she’s a much tougher customer. I like our odds now. Let’s just hope it Kerry spends the next six months being a long slow curve for W to smack out of the ballpark.

    5. MatyaNoBaka Says:

      This is a Democrat election / convention, yes? Why do we assume the rules as they stand today are the rules that will stand at convention time?

      But it takes a strong arm to change the rules in mid-course, and unless the media do an even better job on Fallujah than they did on Tet, i don’t think anyone that strong will want to come out and play.

      Matya no baka

    6. Scott Says:

      Hillary wants Kerry to lose. She has no interest in going back on her pledge to serve out her six year term and will be the de facto nominee in ’08. There’s no evidence to the contrary…and no scenario that works better for her than this. The REP’s would need to put up someone like Condi…as much as I love Jeb, he won’t beat Hillary. –s

    7. Jonathan Says:

      I agree with Scott. His explanation is consistent with Hillary’s numbers not improving.

      (I may have been wrong about W’s numbers improving, but I don’t think that changes anything here.)

      BTW, I think it’s a mistake for Republicans to look to Condi Rice to rescue them. She has never run for elected office, so it’s impossible to know if she would be a good candidate. Also, she may not want to run.

    8. Richard A. Heddleson Says:

      Unfortunately for Lex universal contested primaries have made the brokered convention is a thing of the past unless the presumptive nominee dies before the convention.

      The interesting and plausible, if improbable, scenario is that Kery is falling so far behind by the convention that the party leadership drafts Hillary for the VP slot and shoves her down Kerry’s throat, metaphorically speaking. For Hillary to accept, Kerry would have to be so low she could only make his numbers go up. Even (especially) if Kerry lost, it would be a win for Hilllary and clinch her the nomination for ’08 and control of the party machinery until then. If Kerry won, she could tell him he was a one term president.