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  • Prediction Markets

    Posted by Jonathan on January 11th, 2005 (All posts by )

    I’m a big fan of online prediction markets — futures or bets on various useful propositions, particularly political ones. I particularly like Intrade, which pays this blog for accounts opened via click-throughs on its display here, but which is also IMO by far the best designed commercial prediction exchange. But there are other such exchanges and markets and I’m sure that their numbers will only grow with time.

    Here’s a primer on prediction markets from Chris Masse. Chris has also produced a 2004 year-end evaluation of particular prediction markets that’s worth reading.


    3 Responses to “Prediction Markets”

    1. Lex Says:

      A great round-up.

      In-Trade’s performance this year was a true milestone. As polls become harder and harder to carry out accurately, futures markets like In-Trade are becoming more and more easy to operate efficiently and globally.

      Let me say that TradeSports was very interesting, moving in near lockstep with In-Trade. I would love to see if the demographic profiles of the people using either exchange are different, or if there was inter-market arbitrage.

      From an intellectual standpoint, the entire thing is of bottomless fascination.

    2. Lex Says:

      Jonathan reminds me that I am comparing oranges and oranges. InTrade and Tradesports are the same company.

      What was the name of that sports oddsmaker we had on there that gave odds in the form of ratios, like 7/11 and so forth? That is what I was talking about.

    3. Chris. F. Masse Says:

      The other prediction futures exchange is BetFair.
      11/(7+11) = 61.1%
      chris f masse