If you look at the Tradesports contract on the nomination of Harriet Miers to the US Supreme Court, the odds that she will be confirmed were >90% when the contract started trading a few days ago. The odds then declined to the 75% range, and yesterday the bid dropped 20 points (the market is now around 52/73). While there has not been a trade in this market below 70%, the fact that no one is currently willing to bid above 52% is not favorable for Miers’s chances, or at least suggests that as of yesterday her odds of being confirmed became significantly more uncertain than they were previously. This information seems consistent with the poll results that Mystery Pollster discusses (via Instapundit).
UPDATE: No sooner did I post this than the Intrade bid jumped to 65%. Perhaps the uncertainty is diminishing. Let’s see where the next trades take place.
And now its 70. But I still say she is Harriet Souter.